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100Z, is the chase worth it?

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Dr1fter808
Joined: 11.10.2017

The villain is 10/4/af1.0/3B:3, 80 hands

FD is present, but, should that stop us? His range is so value heavy that we are looking at 88/44/QQ/AQ. AQss is a bummer, yes.

I normally throw this hand away on flop but vs an incredibly tight player, I could not help myself.

The big question is should we play it for stacks even if the FD completes on turn?

PokerStars - $1 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 211.05 BB
SB: 92.5 BB
BB: 181.1 BB
UTG: 101.01 BB
MP: 105.65 BB
CO: 132.33 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7♦ 6♦

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, SB calls 1.5 BB, fold

Flop: (5 BB, 2 players) 8♠ Q♣ 4♠
SB checks, Hero bets 1.66 BB, SB raises to 6 BB, Hero calls 4.34 BB

Turn: (17 BB, 2 players) 5♥
SB bets 12 BB, Hero ? ?

That's the tightest stats I have ever seen in 100Z in weeks.

There is a software that can project/speculate what the V's long term stats will be, I'd be interested in using it vs someone like this.

Thoughts?


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9 replies
pisiattu
Joined: 01.04.2010

He call from sb, or he is a fish or a regtard:D
Raise turn for value and protection; he has only set or draw, what can be his calling range from sb?

However you can fold flop vs this oppo


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Dr1fter808
Joined: 11.10.2017

Originally posted by pisiattu
He call from sb, or he is a fish or a regtard:D
Raise turn for value and protection; he has only set or draw, what can be his calling range from sb?

However you can fold flop vs this oppo

His CR on flop is 100% value though. I think we have a really good implied odd here.

I'm guessing you don't like the FD present on flop.


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Coach
maniac
Joined: 29.03.2006

Most if the you let go on the flop. Why? Because the implieds are not sufficient. Worst case you got three outs an you have to be quite sure he barrels it off. You nee 15,3 let say 16:1 to call 1 street. You get 4:12 or 1:3 means you need to get 13x4,3 or 13x5=60bb. If you calc in the possible redaws its getting really close for a marginal hand. If you are not have hit the turn you can see its an easy fold. Because of his turn sizing and the eff stacks.


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Dr1fter808
Joined: 11.10.2017

Originally posted by maniac
Most if the you let go on the flop. Why? Because the implieds are not sufficient. Worst case you got three outs an you have to be quite sure he barrels it off. You nee 15,3 let say 16:1 to call 1 street. You get 4:12 or 1:3 means you need to get 13x4,3 or 13x5=60bb. If you calc in the possible redaws its getting really close for a marginal hand. If you are not have hit the turn you can see its an easy fold. Because of his turn sizing and the eff stacks.

Wait, so you are saying folding to his flop CR is correct?


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Coach
maniac
Joined: 29.03.2006

You see the numbers it is too marginal for me at least. You can be too sure to get this implieds in imo.


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Dr1fter808
Joined: 11.10.2017

Originally posted by maniac
You see the numbers it is too marginal for me at least. You can be too sure to get this implieds in imo.

Yeah, okay, thanks for the math. I think I get it.


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Furlisht
Joined: 09.09.2007

I'd fold, you only have a gutshot without the spade draw. Even if you hit, you're not even sure to win the pot

Originally posted by Dr1fter808

Originally posted by pisiattu
He call from sb, or he is a fish or a regtard:D
Raise turn for value and protection; he has only set or draw, what can be his calling range from sb?

However you can fold flop vs this oppo

His CR on flop is 100% value though. I think we have a really good implied odd here.

I'm guessing you don't like the FD present on flop.

You only have 80 hands on him, how many occurence do you have on his flop x/r? It seems far fetched to me to exploit from stats with this really really low sample


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id be releasing this one on the flop


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

On my stream we have a number of semi-sarcastic "Rules of Poker"
Some of them are to remind myself not to trap myself.

Rule #1: Don't Chase!
It is more important in 7-Card Stud when there is yet another betting round but even so.
Chase doesn't apply if you have a bucket of outs and you're drawing to the nuts, but it certainly applies here.


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