Turn shove 3 bet pot

_Anonymous_

05.02.2021, 01:13 0

PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

BB: 242.76 BB
UTG: 138.48 BB
MP: 98.6 BB
CO: 100 BB
Hero (BTN): 105.2 BB
SB: 119.36 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K♥ K♦

UTG raises to 2.48 BB, MP calls 2.48 BB, fold, Hero raises to 11 BB, fold, fold, fold, MP calls 8.52 BB

Flop: (25.88 BB, 2 players) 7♠ T♥ Q♠
MP checks, Hero bets 14 BB, MP calls 14 BB

Turn: (53.88 BB, 2 players) 3♦
MP checks, Hero bets 28.28 BB, MP raises to 73.6 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 45.32 BB

River: (201.08 BB, 2 players) 4♦

MP cashed out 182.48 BB for a fee of 1.84 BB

MP shows 7♣ 7♦ (Three of a Kind, Sevens)
(Pre 20%, Flop 88%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows K♥ K♦ (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 80%, Flop 12%, Turn 5%)

I have 12 hands on villain and he didn't play any, so the only thing we can assume is that he's not overly aggressive. I only see villain doing this with a set, but, I've seen fish do so much crazy stuff. Let's say he would actually do this with AQ/AA/QQ/KK/77, we still have 40+% equity which is more than enough.

Do you think we could ever lay it down here?

Reply

Quote

4 replies

LeMahdi

Joined: 10.02.2019

Posts: 127

05.02.2021, 06:12 0

Well the way PF went played I think it is too optimistic to give him AA, QQ, KK in AQ/AA/QQ/KK/77. Maybe an MP flat after UTG 2bet would be AQ / QQ / 77 / KJ / 9J but that's again a guess. I think with KK and QQ as MP, If he flat with KK and QQ he might iso himself against an aggro in CO or BTN, so for me that's a 3bet as MP with that holding. vs that range you have more than that 41%. I do not fold there however. I call but I expect to lose to set.

Reply

Quote

Incog

Joined: 18.08.2006

Posts: 166

05.02.2021, 09:59 0

I have to agree with LeMahdi, preflop MP overcalling twice. This is setmining or maybe AQ/QJs/JTs and if he is bad QTs/KJs. Even 12 hands show u that he is not fishy so I wouldn't give him AA/KK/QQ as MP in this spot. This leave u with still a Call an the Turn and a bad feeling.

edit: What do you think about checkbehind turn, for getting value from AQ/QJ on the River ... and maybe loosing less$ vs. set?

Reply

Quote

venatici

Joined: 15.03.2010

Posts: 3,457

05.02.2021, 10:06 0

Hi,

If he only called turn and checked to you on the river, what would you do?

Reply

Quote

Incog

Joined: 18.08.2006

Posts: 166

06.02.2021, 17:20 0

Originally posted by venatici
Hi,

If he only called turn and checked to you on the river, what would you do?

ur Q signals in the right direction ... I personally do not try to get value on 3 streets vs. a Reg/Tag with a OP. ... but maybe thats wrong.

Reply

Quote