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AQ - river value bet or not?

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Pokrovec
Joined: 07.01.2010

no sample on the villain, so lets assume he is regular

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

BB: $5.00 (100 bb)
Hero (CO): $7.39 (147.8 bb)
BTN: $4.71 (94.2 bb)
SB: $5.47 (109.4 bb)

SB posts $0.02, BB posts $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has Q♥: A♠:
Hero raises to $0.15, 2 folds, BB calls $0.10

Villain is defending BB against UTG open raise, so my estimation about his range is something like 22-88, Ax, KJs, KQ, 87s+

Flop: ($0.32, 2 players) 7♥: A♦: 7♦:
BB checks, Hero bets $0.21, BB calls $0.21

value bet + protection against FD
great flop for me, after his call I would say I am still ahead of 88, Ax, flush draws

Turn: ($0.74, 2 players) 4♦:
BB checks, Hero bets $0.36, BB calls $0.36

flush completed, according to my estimation now I am beating only Ax, 88

River: ($1.46, 2 players) 8♣:
BB checks, Hero checks

so, flush and other monsters he would bet so I guess it was a mistake to check behind?

Spoiler

Results: $1.46 pot ($0.06 rake)
Final Board: 7♥: A♦: 7♦: 4♦: 8♣:

BB shows T♦: T♠:: (Two Pair, Tens and Sevens)
(Pre 57%, Flop 13%, Turn 25%)

Hero shows Q♥: A♠:: (Two Pair, Aces and Sevens)
(Pre 43%, Flop 87%, Turn 75%)

Hero wins $1.40


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2 replies
Ramble
Joined: 17.11.2008

I like your reasoning and your line throughout.

If he bets river what do you do:
1) vs half-pot bet?
2) vs pot-size bet?


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VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Agreed.
Vs unknowns, the check behind on the river gives you some information, and protects you against players trapping with the nuts.

The other option is to bet/fold -- unless you want to call a river re-raise on that board.
(maybe, but not at NL 5 where players play very face-up)


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