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Deep River Raise Vs An Agro Reg

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jesusflorestz
Joined: 30.03.2021

I've played today around 1000 hands against this guy across 3 tables.

This guy was the definition of an Agro Reg

He averaged 38 VPIP in each table with 350 hands.

Opened hands like A2o from UTG.

3 betted a lot.

4 betted often.

Cbetted a lot.

Overbetted sometimes as a bluff and for value.

Floated a lot to cbets.

Was involved in a lot of pots, was giving a ton of action and he was running hot too.

Now, if it was against any other person I could fold my set there, but since it was against him I rationalized my call, because I thought he was capable of bluffing there.

Maybe I was imagining scenarios and thought he thought similar to me.

But looking it from a logical perspective, the most likely scenario is that he had the flush draw there.

Now, I thought I had 2 options on the river.

Check/Call or Bet/Fold.

With the check/call I thought he could bet the stack as an overbet because I've seen him doing it.

And with the Bet/Fold I thought he wouldn't be inclined to bluff me as much since I was representing a lot of strength.

So both options seemed decent to me but I don't know which one was the best here.

Also, another thing that influenced the outcome of the hand, was that I was losing at that point like 7 buy ins on the session and maybe I was a little bit on tilt.

When I'm a little bit on tilt I tend to expect everyone is attacking me, bluffing me and I become even more agro and do more calls and aggro moves.

So instead of Bet/Folding I Bet/Called here.

What do you think about this hand?


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6 replies
Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

you need to think about it in terms of his range. "he can be bluffing" doesn't cut it - what do you expect to see when you call?
yes he can be bluffing but he's a reg, so he's not going to double float you with A2o to bluff-jam the river.

of course villain can have flushes, so what do you beat?
maybe you beat some of his value hands, perhaps he plays 66, 55, broadway two-pair in this way?
maybe he's turning an one-pair hand into a bluff because he thinks you don't have enough flushes and doesn't think he can bluff-catch profitably? (very very few people do that at micros)
maybe he's being a hero by jamming his few combos of missed 87s, hoping that your slowness in betting the river means you don't have a flush and are willing to bet/fold? (almost never seen that either)

considering how micro regs don't bluff for stacks too often (and definitely don't do so by bluff-raising against your uncapped range, which could well contain hands like AK diamonds), and i think he'd raise lower sets at an earlier street quite often, bet/folding is probably the play.
also, in general, bet/folding should be superior to check/calling, since villain is mostly going to bet flushes and check behind hands that you beat, and there aren't that many missed draws - the only one i can see is the low oesd with 87s, and maybe 43s too. but i don't blame you.


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Constan111
Joined: 01.06.2021

:f_tongue:


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jesusflorestz
Joined: 30.03.2021

Thank you for your analysis Tomaloc. I'm going to start thinking about hands I beat, instead of "he just can be bluffing". I also think bet/folding was the best play here. But maybe because I was already on tilt I couldn't do it. Next time I will.


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SamoB25
Joined: 02.10.2009

You'll get him next time πŸ˜ƒπŸ‘


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mkBISCUIT
Joined: 19.01.2018

As you said maybe tilt was an issue.check /call 2 streets then raise river, means "I hit my hand". Maybe just an oversight by you ... ever hand comes in on the river str8's flushes...

so times it isn't about how much you win at a table, but sometimes how much you don't lose, when running bad/on tilt/ bad runout.

Cheers GL!


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DecMate
Joined: 25.01.2009

Definitely sizing up on the flop here, at least 3/4. Your deeper and want to play for stacks.
Turn i'm over-betting. He doesn't have KK, you have the effective nuts, you want to go for stacks.
River is the worst card in the deck. Defo a bet/fold spot. Agree with tomaloc. You'll rarely (if ever) see bluffs in spots like this.


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