Skip to forum
Notifications
Clear all

cooler or I should start folding more

10 Posts
8 Users
2 Reactions
896 Views
matiass10
Joined: 10.12.2009

I would go paying against a fish sure but here he was a NL10 common reg 6 of 3bet red line going down hill and winning at 2bb/100 in 60k hands betting turn 50%

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 101.4 BB
SB: 189 BB
BB: 164.7 BB
UTG: 123.5 BB
Hero (MP): 129.5 BB
CO: 101.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♣ Q♣

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BTN raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 6 BB

Flop: (19.5 BB, 2 players) 6♠ 3♣ Q♥
Hero checks, BTN bets 6.2 BB, Hero calls 6.2 BB

Turn: (31.9 BB, 2 players) 8♥
Hero checks, BTN bets 22.9 BB, Hero calls 22.9 BB

River: (77.7 BB, 2 players) 4♣
Hero checks, BTN bets 63.3 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 63.3 BB

BTN shows K♥ K♦ (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 68%, Flop 75%, Turn 89%)
Hero shows A♣ Q♣ (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 32%, Flop 25%, Turn 11%)
BTN wins 195.1 BB


Reply
Quote
9 replies
Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

if you have 60k hands on him, it's time to open your database and study his game. obviously your hand is a theoretically good calldown and villain should have enough missed draws, so the only question is if he has the balls to bluff for stacks with enough hands. i suppose you can beat NL10 for 2bb/100 without ever bluffing for stacks :f_biggrin:


Reply
Quote
Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

You're going to have a hard time justifying a fold on that flop.
AQs is a solid call pre, so you're not folding there.
By the turn, though, you start thinking he must have a set.

I'm curious to read what the real experts think though...


Reply
Quote
Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

I have moved your hand to our hand discussion board. There fits it better.

It's always tough to fold top pair top kicker, but after the big turn bet and river shove you need to fold I think. If you have 60k hands on villain you should have decent reads and info if he/she is capable of 3 barrel bluff in a 3bet pot.

Cheers,
SDK1987


Reply
Quote
sandraardnas
Joined: 11.01.2012

On these positions, if you have 60k hands on him showing his red line going down straight and not very big 3b, you can fold river easily. 60k hands is definitely not good enough sample to be sure of his green line, but its enough for red line. What is his R cb? 38%? And R aggresion stat? 22%?


Reply
Quote
mkBISCUIT
Joined: 19.01.2018

3 barrels bluffs don’t happen often at this limit, I think to be exploitive you need to fold river…. But I do t have an issue if this is against an unknown- or a villain you know is able to barrel 3 streets for a bluff.

The line just doesn’t happen a lot as a bluff at most limits….


Reply
Quote
Casey55
Joined: 19.07.2010

fold river, your beating almost none of his value range, kind of have to watch players to get a feel for if they are bluffing rivers or not , overplayed KQ only thing your beating I think


Reply
Quote
jesusflorestz
Joined: 30.03.2021

I would only fold this hand on the river against a very tight regular. But as others said, there is enough value in TPTK calldown.

Another option you had is 4bet/fold preflop and you save yourself some money. But this only works if they 3bet enough.


Reply
Quote
Casey55
Joined: 19.07.2010

Villains range starts to seem very strong on the turn and river. He shouldn’t have really any 6’s or 3’s in his range so whats he betting with on the turn? AA,KK,QQ, possibly KQ? Maybe somehow turned a FD on the turn with a hand like KJhh or JThh small portion of his range. I think we cant fold turn but I think river is a fold.


Reply
Quote
Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

you don't beat value but this is close to the perfect bluffcatch, also blocking AA. folding this is certainly going to be massively overfolding, but sometimes it's just what you have to do :)


Reply
Quote