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Set OTF - B/B/ facing huge river donk

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Ihuarraquax
Joined: 13.12.2016

Hello, one hand I need to help with. The villain stats appears that hes is reg-ish type of player more on tight passive side.

Preflop - 66 standard open. Flop set on very drawy board so juicy cbet is mandatory (maybe it could be even higher). OTT overbet seems like best option to me - last chance to get value from draw and building a pot vs top pair and two pair types of hand for a river bet. OTR huge pot bet donk from villain when flush completes. Thats awfull in my experience, this is not usually bluff - and when it is bluff it is bluff like from set of QQ or TT when the villain is just a bit retarded. What do you do here? Solver wants me to call 100% and folding is huge blunder according to him btw. Despite that, I am folding at NL10, NL25 against tigh players and without read. What is you opinion on on solver play in this spot at NL10, NL25?


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5 replies
mkBISCUIT
Joined: 19.01.2018

IMO, I believe the fold is fine, as you said, this usual isn’t a bluff spot/bluff line.. live to fight another day with a better hand, just got unlucky with the run out on this one.

I like the OB on the turn as well, with the board being double suited..


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sandraardnas
Joined: 11.01.2012

He can teoretically have KJ and some GS+backdor fd. This solver says call river after including your overbet on turn? Because Id say that passive reg (how many hands youve got?) would most likely think you often have got set or QT or at least AQ after you turn play and he would be afraid you'd check that back on this river.


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

I'm not familiar with solver, but without reads it's tough to fold a set on the river with in mind villain should fold all draws on the over bet on the turn. That makes the pot bet on the river weird for sure.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Casey55
Joined: 19.07.2010

I dont like the turn overbet, I would bet 2/3 pot, you really dont want villains Tx , weaker Qx and smaller PP to fold and I think an overbet will fold out alot of stuff.

As played the hand is odd because idk how often villain should be calling an overbet on the turn with a flushdraw unless it had a pair to go along, maybe a hand like, ATss,KTss,JTss..
MDF on the river is half your range set of 66 would qualify but i dont think villain bluffing often enough for it to matter really. I would fold river but I would try to find evidence in future see if villain calls big bets with flushdraws or whatever the deal is. I wouldnt care too much about what solver says here because solvers are assuming your playing against pro level player


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Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

check the hands that solver is bluffing with and consider if villain will bluff with them :)


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