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AK going for 3 streets/get raised on river

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Casey55
Joined: 19.07.2010

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $3.48 (174 bb)
MP: $5.00 (250 bb)
CO: $2.08 (104 bb)
BU: $2.15 (108 bb)
SB (Hero): $5.33 (267 bb)
BB: $2.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is SB with K A
1 fold, MP calls $0.02, 2 players fold, Hero raises to $0.08, 1 fold, MP calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.18) Q A 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.06, MP calls $0.06

Turn: ($0.30) J (2 players)
Hero bets $0.15, MP calls $0.15

River: ($0.60) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.39, MP raises to $0.78, Hero calls $0.39

can we ever fold the river given the price? what hands do we give him credit for given his line of play?


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6 replies
corsc
Joined: 03.11.2009

Short answer, no; I don't love but I don't think we can fold.

I'd start with Pot Odds (cause that is a big factor that I forget about frequently).
Pot Odds are: 0.39/(0.78*2+0.60) = 18%
This means we need to win 1/5 times.

Looking at ranges, with a limp/call from MP I would expect a very wide range but with less emphasis on very strong hands like AA and QQ.
Looking for hands in this range that beat you, AQ, AJ, A6, A5, QJ, and KT are the most likely.
I'd balance these hands against incorrect value raises (like AT), busted draws (XX of clubs), and just complete airballs.

I'd expect to see a larger raise with the nutted hands (sets and straights).

I could be finding justifications for my decision but at those odds, a potentially wide range, and microstates weirdness, it is a sigh then call.


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miropro
Joined: 01.08.2008

I would bet flop at least 5BB, but river would go for 1/2 pot, maybe even check/call.
And I completely agree with corsc - sigh and call

I mean that limp/call line of villain suggests small PP but I am not sure really. Showdown on NL2 surprises me so often.


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monteCarlol
Joined: 24.08.2019

I am not sure if you are winning here more than the 18% that you need?
Villain's line looks very nutted.
That being said, it's probably a -EV call that you gotta make. Because otherwise you'd be very exploitable.
Otherwise I like that you bet 3 streets. You could size it up on the turn. And even though your flop sizing is fine in theory, vs a Rec you can exploitatively size it up, too.


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

River is tricky, but I don't think villain will min raise with less than 2 pair. Especially if villain is passive I prefer a fold. Even with the insane good odds you get. On flop I would size up to at least 10c. Villain is most likely a weaker player that could call a lot.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Stackoffski
Joined: 08.09.2021

Ah the river fck-off moment. 2nl limp-in ... He showed you AA? (A5 2nd choice, but really AA) Not raising the whole time because he thinks you can't have the ace.


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pokerplayernumber1
Joined: 05.06.2010

bet smaller river or just x/fold


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