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TP+GS vs donk flop

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Densyosh
Joined: 30.10.2009

I think raise turn is bad if call flop, so what is good here, please ?

€0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

MP: 101.4 BB
Hero (CO): 133 BB
BTN: 117.2 BB
SB: 109.6 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 87.2 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J♦ Q♥

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 3.6 BB, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 2.6 BB

Flop: (8.6 BB, 2 players) 8♦ 9♣ Q♣
UTG bets 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB

Turn: (16.6 BB, 2 players) 3♥
UTG bets 7.8 BB, Hero raises to 20 BB, UTG raises to 79.6 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 59.6 BB

River: (175.8 BB, 2 players) J♥


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VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Some things to consider:
:diamond:  He's not playin' with a full stack — indicates not truly serious player
:diamond:  He limps — supports the theory that he's not a serious player
:diamond:  He's UTG, and assuming he knows a bit about poker his limp is polarized — also, better queens are strong parts of his range
:diamond:  If raising over a limper, I favour raising larger, since it gives lots of speculative hands a good price.

In general, I'm a fan of raising flop donks. I cannot say whether this has been profitable long-term. I should check that stat.
However in this case, there isn't enough behind to go after it.

I vote fold.
Now let's see what the real experts think.

Edit: I ran this through Equilab
I gave UTG quite a wide range...

       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    57.70%  55.85%   1.85% { 22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
CO     42.30%  40.45%   1.85% { QJo }

and on the flop:

Board: 8♦9♣Q♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    28.39%  26.22%   2.16% { 22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
CO     71.61%  69.45%   2.16% { QJo }

(from that it appears that I'm being a bit 🐔 — but I did not narrow his range)
If you do, it looks a lot worse:

Board: 8♦9♣Q♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    45.75%  41.72%   4.04% { 88+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, AQo, KQo, QJo, JTo }
CO     54.25%  50.21%   4.04% { QJo }

Once again, the range for UTG is very artificial


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007
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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

You have decent showdown value and you have a straight draw as backup.
Problem with raising on 1 street that you get only action with better if you do it.

I would try to keep villains range as wide as possible with calling villain down.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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pokerplayernumber1
Joined: 05.06.2010

small hands small pot
big hands big pot


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Originally posted by pokerplayernumber1
small hands small pot
big hands big pot

Seems like a good plan, but top pair in this case isn't really small, but also not a big hand.


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Vampiir142
Joined: 01.10.2017

Better rise Flop than, Turn. What you present on the turn that you have if 3h come?


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Originally posted by Vampiir142
Better rise Flop than, Turn. What you present on the turn that you have if 3h come?

What you want to achieve with a raise on the flop against most likely a weaker player based on the stack size?


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Vampiir142
Joined: 01.10.2017

Presenting good Q with other posibility push his donk on the flop to fold.
By my opinion it giving more sense than rerise on the turn after 3h.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

That's true, but I prefer to call villain down. It's tough to get value with a raise on the flop or turn with only top pair. If you get a 3bet on the flop you need to fold. Basicly the same plan on the turn.


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

PF size is way too small, 4-5BB at least would be good

Postflop: Just recognize that your hand is medium strength hand. So clear call on Flop and Turn. DOn't make the mistake of raising cos you think your hand is so awesome (top pair + gutshot). What is he going to pay you off with? A9/A8/AT? In your dreams.

When he 3bet shoves over your Turn raise, you are clearly fked. So you clearly need to fold to the shove. It's such a massively strong line that I think he has a set/2p/straight here 80%+ of the time. Raising Turn puts 2 bets onto the Turn and prevents you from seeing a showdown if he jams and you folds. If you call his jam you are overplaying your medium strength hand.

If you opted to call Turn and call River, you would have gotten the chance to see the showdown for the same price of roughly 2 bets + his range would be significantly wider with way more bluff combos.


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