Drawing wrap versus agression.

With triple suit this hand is not printing money necessarily from EP but fine to open.

In flop hand easily feel better than it really is. If it was rainbow flop we cbet happily but here check is definitely fine. Reason is kind of simple. How many turns are you very happy to see? Two Q, two J, two 9 and three 7 so 9 turns in total. That is not huge amount especially if we get raised. I mean T is decent but we are still crushed by flopped T8 or sets.

For that reason to cbet this wrap we would love to have at least one diamond. Why does it matter? Well it makes x-r less likely and It give us one more nut out. BD fd would be another nice component. So on turn we call pot raise with 9 clean outs. Which mean 20% chance to hit on turn so we need 20/0.2= 100 so at least 40bb from villain on later streets.

On turn we have three extra outs so it's 26% so let's say 60/0.25=240 so at least 60bb implieds required. Now of course sometimes flush complete and we make straight and that will be enough. Or we could potentially turn our hand into bluff on 5♦: if villain check. Sometimes we get trips and end to hero call perhaps.

Anyway I think one good side in having fd available here is that we do get better implied value for straight as villain can easily talk himself into hero call because of it. Or he might overvalue set and shove straight completing river.

So as played call flop and turn is fine but I would personally question if we want to place our self into this possibility with flop cbet.

Issue in what I wrote above though is that turn does give three K as nut outs but our Q and J are not to nuts anymore. Minor oversight

So yeah sometimes we might river 2nd nuts and be screwed.

Originally posted by ghaleon
Issue in what I wrote above though is that turn does give three K as nut outs but our Q and J are not to nuts anymore. Minor oversight

So yeah sometimes we might river 2nd nuts and be screwed.

If the K pops out I have nuts or do I misunderstand something?

Thanks for the very detailed and helpful answer. You pointed some things out which are great to know:f_drink:

On K you have nuts but on Q and J only second nuts.

Open seems OK, but dont see much of a reason to cbet either. I'd rather go for delayed cbet on a blank turn if villain checks again. Top pair here is quite often not the best hand and our outs not all clean. I've been trying to think more about ranges, and our ep range does not connect very well here but sbs calling range actually should quite often. That alone kinda enough to consider skipping cbet I think and of course ghaleon gave plenty of reason for our specific situation. Even if turn is one of our clean outs this deep there is quite a lot of ugly cards on the river that put us on the spot again potentially.