AJs on BB, bluffing turn, then bluff catching on river

Joined: 11.10.2017

26.06.2022, 07:48 0

UTG is 24/15/af2.0/3B:6, 922 hands, from Brazil

HJ is 32/24, 25 hands

AJs on BB vs UTG and HJ is a 20% Squeeze for me, that's just a GTO guesstimate since it's a multi way spot that I have no solution for.

Here I chose to flat preflop.

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB
SB: 103.8 BB
Hero (BB): 106.8 BB
UTG: 100 BB
MP: 96.8 BB
CO: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J♠ A♠

UTG raises to 2.8 BB, MP calls 2.8 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.8 BB

Flop: (8.8 BB, 3 players) 4♣ 5♠ 8♣
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP checks

Turn: (8.8 BB, 3 players) 6♦
Hero bets 2.96 BB, UTG calls 2.96 BB, fold

River: (14.72 BB, 2 players) J♥
Hero checks, UTG bets 14 BB, Hero calls 14 BB

I figure I have more 87/76/77 in my range than they do so I go for a cheap bluff on turn.

River is an interesting spot picking up TPTK because I get that UTG is now repping A7s/77/87s/sets but missed FD/99/TT/random OC comes to mind also.

Do you agree with calling here?

Thoughts?

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5 replies

EmiyaKiritsugu

Joined: 13.08.2013

Posts: 5,226

26.06.2022, 09:07 +1

Guy with 15 PFR shouldnt have many 7x in range. A lot of those will also raise your small stab on turn so its easy for him to have there bluff. I'm not sure but I would exclude sets from his range after his pot sized bet on river.

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ghaleon

Joined: 17.10.2007

Posts: 11,325

26.06.2022, 15:17 +2

Turn bluff seems bad to me. We have plenty of combos that work better for it either having nut outs or less showdown value.

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Dr1fter808

Joined: 11.10.2017

Posts: 3,241

26.06.2022, 19:04 0

Originally posted by ghaleon
Turn bluff seems bad to me. We have plenty of combos that work better for it either having nut outs or less showdown value.

Yeah, it ends up as for value(to charge) not bluff because it's actually ahead of UTG's range.

Spoiler

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB
SB: 103.8 BB
Hero (BB): 106.8 BB
UTG: 100 BB
MP: 96.8 BB
CO: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J♠ A♠

UTG raises to 2.8 BB, MP calls 2.8 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.8 BB

Flop: (8.8 BB, 3 players) 4♣ 5♠ 8♣
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP checks

Turn: (8.8 BB, 3 players) 6♦
Hero bets 2.96 BB, UTG calls 2.96 BB, fold

River: (14.72 BB, 2 players) J♥
Hero checks, UTG bets 14 BB, Hero calls 14 BB

UTG shows A♣ 3♣ (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 31%, Flop 55%, Turn 38%)
Hero shows J♠ A♠ (One Pair, Jacks)
(Pre 69%, Flop 45%, Turn 63%)
Hero wins 40.8 BB
So if to donk then we should donk bigger on turn for value.

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SDK1987

Moderator

Joined: 12.11.2008

Posts: 43,850

27.06.2022, 06:06 0

Tough to bluff against 2 villains post-flop I think. This time you get action of 1 of the few hands you beat, but even with top pair in the end it's a tricky call on the river against a pot size bet.

Cheers,
SDK1987

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DecMate

Joined: 25.01.2009

Posts: 1,868

28.06.2022, 14:41 0

I wouldn't bet the turn with air here wayy too much in villains range that can call.

On the river I think you could lead for 1/3. Vs a pot size bet this is a fold imo

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