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Care to bluff catch?

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Dr1fter808
Joined: 11.10.2017

The villain is 22/19/3B:14/ATS:38, 482 hands

What went through my mind was that he really doesn't have many 9x/99 in his 3bet range but has all the reason to bluff with hands like AK/AQ/KQs/KTs/ATs.

GG Poker - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 105.68 BB
Hero (SB): 109.6 BB
BB: 133.2 BB
UTG: 103.36 BB
MP: 107.76 BB
CO: 100.96 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J♦ A♣

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB raises to 9 BB, Hero calls 6 BB

Flop: (18 BB, 2 players) J♣ 8♠ T♥
Hero checks, BB bets 5.96 BB, Hero raises to 21.52 BB, BB calls 15.56 BB

Turn: (61.04 BB, 2 players) 7♣
Hero checks, BB checks

River: (61.04 BB, 2 players) 6♥
Hero checks, BB bets 82 BB, Hero calls 79.08 BB and is all-in

In the end, folding river is too weak, and if he has it then oh well, right?

Thoughts?

Edit: I found his exact stats in HH player.


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

You could also just call the flop to keep villains range wider. Ax would fold on a reasonable raise like this. With that in mind you beat only a missed draw on the river and without reads I would fold the river on the over bet shove.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Dr1fter808
Joined: 11.10.2017

Originally posted by SDK1987
You could also just call the flop to keep villains range wider. Ax would fold on a reasonable raise like this. With that in mind you beat only a missed draw on the river and without reads I would fold the river on the over bet shove.

Cheers,
SDK1987

According to solver, we are supposed to stick the money in by river ourselves, but check/call on flop is preferred over a flop cbet. So, I played this hand wrong. Having said that, as played, we still should not fold on river, in theory.


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Vampiir142
Joined: 01.10.2017

It seems that he could not have 99 in range, but TT+, A9s ... .
On the flop I would just call. River better fold by me.


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If you intend to bluffcatch check/call 3 streets. You check/raise flop then freeze when scary card falls on the turn. Why? You should keep barreling in this spot. You have very decent hand, flush draw appears on the turn witch could justify a second barrel . On the river if you believe you will have best hand most of time check call seems reasonable. 6♥: is total brick and changes nothing . Still, it will be very hard call indeed. Villian shows a lot of strenght.

I see that he has very high 3bet. You could consider 4bet preflop. But that's really dependent of his postflop tendencies. Is he aggressive enough? Can you extract 3 streets of value out of his bluffs. Will he ever bluff 3 streets? If yes then flat call is fine but if not then 4bet him most of the time.

Having said that, as played, we still should not fold on river, in theory.

Why do you argue and why do you post a hand for analysis when you are convinced that your play is correct. You should do it only when you have doubts.


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Coach
LemOn36
Joined: 07.02.2009

I'll run this at 100 BB - will actually tell you why in the coaching :]
Preflop

Spoiler

SB Strat

SB vs 3bet
1/2 pot

Pot

Pre-run online database

Flop

Spoiler

Snowie

GTOWizard

Turn

Spoiler

Snowie
bets half pot FOLDS

Wizard
bets half pot FOLDS

River

Spoiler

Snowie

Wizard
-this would be pure fild with extra 9bb

Thoughts
Snowie allows instantly any stack size and line.
Online database will be missing the 9bb
Solver you need to re-run the sim from scratch
Snowie has a limping strategy, a small limping range where wizard (even at higher rake) simplifies to raise/fold
=> if you play raise fold Snowie BvB strat post will be slightly altered
=> Even with that Pref flop and turn strategies run very close together, only real difference is river


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Dr1fter808
Joined: 11.10.2017

Thank you all for comments.

Please do not click on the spoiler below:

Spoiler

GG Poker - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 105.68 BB
Hero (SB): 109.6 BB
BB: 133.2 BB
UTG: 103.36 BB
MP: 107.76 BB
CO: 100.96 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J♦ A♣

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB raises to 9 BB, Hero calls 6 BB

Flop: (18 BB, 2 players) J♣ 8♠ T♥
Hero checks, BB bets 5.96 BB, Hero raises to 21.52 BB, BB calls 15.56 BB

Turn: (61.04 BB, 2 players) 7♣
Hero checks, BB checks

River: (61.04 BB, 2 players) 6♥
Hero checks, BB bets 82 BB, Hero calls 79.08 BB and is all-in

BB shows K♣ A♦ (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 74%, Flop 29%, Turn 20%)
Hero shows J♦ A♣ (One Pair, Jacks)
(Pre 26%, Flop 71%, Turn 80%)
Hero wins 214.72 BB


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Nice bluff catch this time. Not sure why villain played AK like this, but we can't ask him/her.


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Dr1fter808
Joined: 11.10.2017

Originally posted by SDK1987
Nice bluff catch this time. Not sure why villain played AK like this, but we can't ask him/her.

Well, AK has to bluff to win, imo. It seems likely that his opponent has at least a pair.


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Indeed, but I don't expect villain would call on the flop.


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Dr1fter808
Joined: 11.10.2017

Originally posted by SDK1987
Indeed, but I don't expect villain would call on the flop.

Well, A/K/Q could be outs for AK, also for opportunity to take the pot away on later street with aggression, but mainly he has position so I don't hate his call there on flop.


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Could be, but I expect against your check/raising range there is a decent change the A or K are dirty outs. Only KQ seems like a hand villain beats on the flop.


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Dr1fter808
Joined: 11.10.2017

Originally posted by SDK1987
Could be, but I expect against your check/raising range there is a decent change the A or K are dirty outs. Only KQ seems like a hand villain beats on the flop.

It's probably more complex than that like 99/9x/Qx/KQ/PP/OC bluff are in the mix for the flop CR. I'm pretty sure solver will tell you to call the flop CR.


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Tamaseger
Joined: 14.11.2010

Originally posted by SDK1987
You could also just call the flop to keep villains range wider. Ax would fold on a reasonable raise like this. With that in mind you beat only a missed draw on the river and without reads I would fold the river on the over bet shove.

Cheers,
SDK1987

If the opponent bets ~2/3 pot on river, what is reasonable for both value or bluff, he would be pot committed, and should call a raise because of that. Also he generates more FE for his bluffs, and more value with his value bets. In this case, we still consider the shove as an overbet? In situations like this I tend to interpret the bet sizing as reasonable instead of an overbet, but I can be totally wrong here.

Originally posted by NapoleonBonaparte135

Having said that, as played, we still should not fold on river, in theory.

Why do you argue and why do you post a hand for analysis when you are convinced that your play is correct. You should do it only when you have doubts.

I don't think he said that just to disagree with the provided answers, he just mentioned what the solver prefers here. As I don't have access to any solvers, I like it that he includes what a solver says in the discussions.

Also when you accept the first answer to your question without sharing your further thoughts about the provided answers, you cut the possibility of a deeper conversation or analysis of the situation. Arguments like this is not about who's wrong or right, but a powerful way to further investigate the situation.

Originally posted by SDK1987
Indeed, but I don't expect villain would call on the flop.

I have a rather big c-bet value (not unreasonable high, but a bit higher than most of my opponents), and some of my opponents try to exploit me with often 3-betting my c-bets to make me give up the hand on the flop. So in position I call these 3-bets more often, because if this is the case, I can give myself a free card on turn if my opponent checks, or reevaluate the situation on turn when the opponent bets. I'm not sure if this is the case here, just try to guess the reason behind this line.


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