when AKo misses but has some potential, oop, 3bet pot

Hhmm, I'm looking forward to play some more with GTOw tonight. I can already see that I missed that BTN is not playing fullstack. I solved the hand for 100BB and you solved it for 75BB. In your solve you see that checking and betting half pot is the same EV and we want to bet the majority of the time now. In my solve the EV of checking is higher and we want to check roughly 2/3th of the time. It's really close though; closer than I thought.

As a general strategy I would check this board, but in case of 75BB deep it seems to be a half pot cbet. I want to find out why this is.

I'll come back to this later. Thank you for sharing your analysis + raw HH.

Originally posted by LookAwayNow
Hhmm, I'm looking forward to play some more with GTOw tonight. I can already see that I missed that BTN is not playing fullstack. I solved the hand for 100BB and you solved it for 75BB. In your solve you see that checking and betting half pot is the same EV and we want to bet the majority of the time now. In my solve the EV of checking is higher and we want to check roughly 2/3th of the time. It's really close though; closer than I thought.

As a general strategy I would check this board, but in case of 75BB deep it seems to be a half pot cbet. I want to find out why this is.

I'll come back to this later. Thank you for sharing your analysis + raw HH.

YW

Okay, I think I get it, I compared both solves and the difference between the two is mainly because of stack depth. Also the solver uses a 9,5BB 3-bet size for hero as a GTO-standard for 75BB, where it uses a 12BB 3-bet size for 100BB deep. This influences the SPR and therefor our checking and betting frequencies. What is more important though and has the most impact, is the fact that BTN has to fold more vs our c-bet in a 75BB deep scenario.

BTN should fold only 16% of the time vs our c-bet 100BB deep, but should fold 20% of the time when it's 75BB deep, this doesn't look much, but it's actually 25% more frequency between the two (20/16).

In a 75BB deep scenario, hands like KhQh, Ah5h, Ah4h, AhQx and 5h4h become folds now for BTN, while in a 100BB scenario he can continue them because of the implied odss. When it's only 75BB deep there's simply not enough money to win for him when he makes calls with these hands, so he has to fold them. This makes our c-bet a lot more profitable, so we can do it with a higher frequency.