can we make a world class fold on river?

I would be over betting the turn 133%-150% pot. So like 23-25 bb. It makes life very difficult for villain on a draw. If he jams all in then you have a decision, you only lose to the 16 combos of j9, that’s all. He could jam with 2 pair and a lower set. If he jams turn I would call.

As played I am calling river for 100bb if I was deeper stacked like villain at 200bb I would be thinking about it more. That being said the over bet on turn would make playing deeper a little easier..

Hard to fold the river. J9 could be in villains range, but a flush seems unlikely after you're big bet on the turn.
Also with the Q♣: in you're hand it's tougher for villain to have a flush.
Without reads I would call with top set.

Cheers,
SDK1987

can we make a world class fold on river?

I dont think so. I am gonna snap call ♦

Mehh, I would need really specific info to call here. Most of the time I would hate life and fold river. I don't care about J9, I think this jam is either a flush or nothing. I would ask myself what bluffs make sense that villain could play like this. Would realize that villains range can be any2 because of 6:1 pot odds pre. He can have KJ, that has an open ender on the flop, he might want to x/r bluff turn, but against a pot-size he just decided to call and turns it into a bluff when he misses his straight. He can have the ace of clubs in his hand, that he wants to use as a bluff because you can't have the nut flush. Only ATo - with the A of clubs makes sense though, but this also has SDV, so why jam like this? Then again, both hands could also go in a bluff 3-bet range pre. As you can see, It's hard to give him hands that bluff like this and on top of that he also has to be able to use this line as a bluff. I would need really specific reads that he's able to bluff like this, for me to even consider calling.

Nitty? No. His range can be any2. Let's try to think about the value combo's that he can have. Well, he has many flushes that continue on the flop, any suited 9x, any suited Jx, some suited 8x, some Ax suited hands. I just think we see a flush too often.

Edit: I would also overbet turn, 125%.

<>
There are circumstances where I would fold QQ when a runner-runner flush hits.
 No info on player (you say he's a tag)
 Population tends to bluff a bunch more than usual. Pokerstars for example sees a lower bluff frequency than 888. I haven't played enough cash on GGPoker to know this.
 Format: fast-fold tends to see less bluffing and more aggression than static tables.

I'm liking the turn overbet suggestion.
In this case, too many worse hands can do this — all AA, KK or even AK with only one club even smaller sets, so I'm calling, and not even hating myself if BB shows flush (or T9o which is unlikely since you said they're a TAG)

Originally posted by LookAwayNow
Mehh, I would need really specific info to call here. Most of the time I would hate life and fold river. I don't care about J9, I think this jam is either a flush or nothing. I would ask myself what bluffs make sense that villain could play like this. Would realize that villains range can be any2 because of 6:1 pot odds pre. He can have KJ, that has an open ender on the flop, he might want to x/r bluff turn, but against a pot-size he just decided to call and turns it into a bluff when he misses his straight. He can have the ace of clubs in his hand, that he wants to use as a bluff because you can't have the nut flush. Only ATo - with the A of clubs makes sense though, but this also has SDV, so why jam like this? Then again, both hands could also go in a bluff 3-bet range pre. As you can see, It's hard to give him hands that bluff like this and on top of that he also has to be able to use this line as a bluff. I would need really specific reads that he's able to bluff like this, for me to even consider calling.

Nitty? No. His range can be any2. Let's try to think about the value combo's that he can have. Well, he has many flushes that continue on the flop, any suited 9x, any suited Jx, some suited 8x, some Ax suited hands. I just think we see a flush too often.

Edit: I would also overbet turn, 125%.

So this villain is tag for sure but what if V is pro or semi-pro? How often top set wins here? I suspect 0%.

Did you guys see that hand where Robl folded a set vs Yong? Wow, now that is a world class player.

Here, I put the link just in case,

If you must know.

Cooler. Villian is long run looser

.

Yes, this is also what I mean in my reply. To determine if he has enough bluffs or not we obv. have to start by thinking about what bluffs he can have here that make sense. If you can figure out a couple bluff hands that make sense, you could add some randomness to it and maybe you have a bluff-catcher on the river. We both agree that this is simply not the case on this board run-out, so we have to fold.

Seeing villains hand also makes a lot of sense. This time he had K9 of clubs, but he also has 69, 79, J9, A9, 68, 78, 98, J8, K8, A8, J7, J9, A5, A6 and A7 of clubs. And this is quite a tight range to continue pre, when you get 6:1. Personally I would have more flushes than only those few.