KTo on UTG vs BB, SRP, 170BBESS

I fold pre and open KJo as bottom. As played, flop c-bet is fine I think, against the raise we should fold though. We block some of his bluffs. The turn is interesting, but it's still going to be a fold in my opinion because his bluffs have too much equity against us and our reverse implieds suck. I'll try to explain.

His x/r on the flop has sets and maybe AQ for value. For bluffs he can have A-high flushdraws (we block AK of diamonds, which is likely to 3-bet pre anyway). He can have some smaller flushdraws, 45 of diamonds, 65 of diamonds. Maybe some straight draws. There are some more flush-draws too. He should be calling relatively wide pre in the BB.

Now on the river vs that range, we only really have 4 clean outs. (Ac, Ah, 9c, 9h). On the diamond A or 9 we're going to screw ourselves too often against his flop x/r bluffs; bad reversed implied odds. On the spade A or 9 it kinda kills the action and we're not getting enough value to justify a call on the turn.

Conclusion: fold turn. We don't get the direct pot odds and half of our "outs" are awkward and screw us sometimes when we do hit.

Originally posted by LookAwayNow
I fold pre and open KJo as bottom. As played, flop c-bet is fine I think, against the raise we should fold though. We block some of his bluffs. The turn is interesting, but it's still going to be a fold in my opinion because his bluffs have too much equity against us and our reverse implieds suck. I'll try to explain.

His x/r on the flop has sets and maybe AQ for value. For bluffs he can have A-high flushdraws (we block AK of diamonds, which is likely to 3-bet pre anyway). He can have some smaller flushdraws, 45 of diamonds, 65 of diamonds. Maybe some straight draws. There are some more flush-draws too. He should be calling relatively wide pre in the BB.

Now on the river vs that range, we only really have 4 clean outs. (Ac, Ah, 9c, 9h). On the diamond A or 9 we're going to screw ourselves too often against his flop x/r bluffs; bad reversed implied odds. On the spade A or 9 it kinda kills the action and we're not getting enough value to justify a call on the turn.

Conclusion: fold turn. We don't get the direct pot odds and half of our "outs" are awkward and screw us sometimes when we do hit.

I deduced that Spades didn't matter and this is more likely for straight value like 77/33 but in retrospect it's just the calling station in me talking probably if you add more combos in the mix like you have. I tend to think that deeper we are, stronger their ranges oop.

Fold pre-
Not calling flop raise

Did I go broke in this hand?

It would be pretty bad to go broke here or you get a miracle river like now.
Pre-flop is a loose open, but not sure why you calling the flop bet.
Turn is a easy fold on the over bet with 8 outs for a straight.

River you hit nice and you are lucky villain stacks of with 2 pair.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Originally posted by SDK1987
It would be pretty bad to go broke here or you get a miracle river like now.
Pre-flop is a loose open, but not sure why you calling the flop bet.
Turn is a easy fold on the over bet with 8 outs for a straight.

River you hit nice and you are lucky villain stacks of with 2 pair.

Cheers,
SDK1987

It's fate, I think, I didn't wake up that morning thinking that I am gonna open KTo on UTG and hit a twice removed cousin draw on the flop and somehow continue even against CR and then win a HUGE pot by being a luck box clown.

A reckless call on the flop. I am gonna fold there as well. But as played i think you should continue with the recklessness and call his MO. There are 2 flush draws on the board and if some of them completes you could try to represent it. You have additional outs to improve to the nuts as well. Otherwise you burn money

How do we know when the call is good when we are deep? How do we calculate?

Originally posted by Zexion
How do we know when the call is good when we are deep? How do we calculate?

When you a GTO player with luck stats buffed to +100 you don't need to calculate anything. You call and make your opponent go

pretty sure its not a turn call specially if he can have Q7 of spades here for example,

KT utg open is a bit too lose, on the other hand Q3s is waay too lose defend imo, giving high rake Q3s is definitly a fold in BB.

Also normal opponents dont stack of lightly with Q3, so you cant expect to get the implied odds all the time if you hit.
Also reverse implied odds on possible flushdraws in his range.

Anyway nicehand.

Originally posted by LMcrow
pretty sure its not a turn call specially if he can have Q7 of spades here for example,

KT utg open is a bit too lose, on the other hand Q3s is waay too lose defend imo, giving high rake Q3s is definitly a fold in BB.

Also normal opponents dont stack of lightly with Q3, so you cant expect to get the implied odds all the time if you hit.
Also reverse implied odds on possible flushdraws in his range.

Anyway nicehand.

Thank you. But that's why it's fate. I'm pretty sure that the call of flop CR was an accident(playing 4 tables of RC). And then on turn, I go "oh, lookie here, what is this?" And the river plays itself. You are right though Q3 for value is never good except against bluffs. But then again, this is one of the premier bluff catching boards. So in the end, we both played badly but somehow one of them ended up with The Nuts. I'm gonna tell you something, GGP's Hotkeys "check button" is also the "call button", I would like for them to separate the two because I made so many mistakes using it.

Originally posted by Zexion
How do we know when the call is good when we are deep? How do we calculate?

You don't calculate this one, you look, you drool, and then you call turn.