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[MP]88 vs [BU] NIT - [NL20]

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Zexion
Joined: 14.10.2011

Pacific Poker - $0.20 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

BB: $18.51 (92.6 bb)
UTG: $20.22 (101.1 bb)
UTG+1: $17.44 (87.2 bb)
MP: $22.44 (112.2 bb)
MP+1: $20.00 (100 bb)
Hero (MP+2): $20.30 (101.5 bb)
CO: $26.16 (130.8 bb)
BTN: $24.79 (124 bb)
SB: $49.67 (248.4 bb)

SB posts $0.10, BB posts $0.20

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.30) Hero has 8 8
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.60, fold, BTN calls $0.60, SB calls $0.50, fold

Flop: ($2.00, 3 players) 6 Q J
SB checks, Hero bets $1.20, BTN calls $1.20, fold

Turn: ($4.40, 2 players) T
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($4.40, 2 players) 9
Hero bets $2.20, BTN calls $2.20

Spoiler

Results: $8.80 pot ($0.44 rake)
Final Board: 6 Q J T 9

Hero shows 8 8: (Straight, Queen High)
(Pre 51%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)

BTN shows K Q: (Straight, King High)
(Pre 49%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)

BTN wins $8.36

What is the optimal strategy when facing an opponent with VPIP 15, PFR 10,3be 3.2%, and who rarely 3bets, and has been playing even more nitty in the current session? Should you bet the flop to take down the pot when they have pocket pairs, and is betting the river profitable considering you can extract value from two pairs?


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5 replies
mkBISCUIT
Joined: 19.01.2018

I would guess villain CC is pretty low as well, As you show you only have top pair 16% of time on that flop. I would possible do a delayed c bet, but then as the run out goes, every draw gets there, pur give up on river, The only hand you would probably barrel all streets is AK.
GL


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EmiyaKiritsugu
Joined: 13.08.2013

Most important street in this hand is not river but flop. Why bet that big against two players with hand that is far behind their calling range? Also BU is nit so you should cbet even less and more polar.

As for river after this line - I would bet 10% of pot. I dont expect to get bluffed with raise and I think he may be inclined to call even something like AQ.


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I am gonna give up on the flop against 2 opponents and 2 overcards. As played bet OTR seems okay. Your size is correct. There are a lot of 2 pair combos that might pay you off.


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Zexion
Joined: 14.10.2011

Originally posted by EmiyaKiritsugu
Most important street in this hand is not river but flop. Why bet that big against two players with hand that is far behind their calling range? Also BU is nit so you should cbet even less and more polar.

As for river after this line - I would bet 10% of pot. I dont expect to get bluffed with raise and I think he may be inclined to call even something like AQ.

I decided to make a continuation bet on the flop due to both opponents having a high fold to continuation bet frequency, which suggests an exploitable tendency. However, it is important to note that this line may not remain profitable once opponents adjust. On the river, given that I received a call on the flop, I made the assumption that my opponent often has two pairs. As a result, my decision was to extract value from this range.


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EmiyaKiritsugu
Joined: 13.08.2013

You shouldnt trust fully small sample sizes. Also in multiway pot you can say that they both protect themselves from being exploited by their fold equity. Lets say both of them fold 60% of times on flop(almost no one has fold that high). Against one of them you have 60% fold equity to bet. Against two of them you take pot on flop only 36% of times(0.6 x 0.6). For profitable bluff bet for 60% you need 37,5% fold equity. So you are not making profit even against two biggest fit-or-fold flop players!

As for river - you want him to call two pairs more often than he calls/raises with straights and flushes. Half pot is just too big to achieve this, especially as you think he is folding too much.


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