Mind Games

A full table for NL 500 5-card draw appeared today on PokerStars
I didn't even have enough in my account for a full buy-in, but what the hell, it's only money.

This put me in decent profit
PokerStars, 5 Card Draw No Limit - $2.50/$5.00 - 5 players

UTG: $332.79 (67 bb)
CO: $326.19 (65 bb)
BU: $269.59 (54 bb)
SB (Hero): $216.45 (43 bb)
BB: $203.50 (41 bb)

Deal: ($7.50) Hero is SB with 5♣:J♥:4♠:3♦:6♠:
2 players fold, BTN raises to $10, Hero calls $7.50, 1 fold

Draw One: ($25) 5♣:4♠:3♦:6♠:7♥: (2 players)
SB (Hero) draws J♥:, BU draws 3
Hero bets $12.35, BTN raises to $46, Hero calls $33.65

Total pot: $117 (Rake: $3)

Showdown:
BU shows A♥:A♣:K♥:T♠:A♦: (three of a kind, Aces)
SB (Hero) shows 5♣:4♠:3♦:6♠:7♥: (a straight, Three to Seven)
SB (Hero) wins $114

Oh 💩 — now what do I do?
PokerStars, 5 Card Draw No Limit - $2.50/$5.00 - 6 players

UTG: $386.19 (77 bb)
MP: $338.80 (68 bb)
CO (Hero): $192.65 (39 bb)
BU: $132.50 (27 bb)
SB: $439.63 (88 bb)
BB: $342.03 (68 bb)

Deal: ($7.50) Hero is CO with Q♥:3♥:J♥:2♥:4♣:
UTG raises to $12.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $12.50, 3 players fold

Draw One: ($32.50) Q♥:3♥:J♥:2♥:4♣: (2 players)
UTG draws 1, CO (Hero) stands pat <<< supposed to D1 here.
UTG checks, Hero bets $31.81, UTG folds <<< nothing to do but bet pot and pray

Total pot: $32.50 (Rake: $1.62)
CO (Hero) wins $30.88

The best score I could get was 1292 placing 343
But at least I finished over 1 BI up on the day.

I figured that if I fold every single hand, for 300 hands at NL 25, that is 50 orbits, so you would lose 17.50.
So if you lost less than that — you're ahead!

New promo started today, in which the bonus points for Jack, Queens, and Kings dropped from 100, 200 and 50 to 30, 40 and 20

Not nice.
Still a decent promo I guess...

I was playing several different stakes today while working on a script. No point in risking NL 25 when distracted...
PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players

UTG: $0.96 (48 bb)
MP: $0.75 (38 bb)
CO: $1.73 (87 bb)
BU (Hero): $2.84 (142 bb)
SB: $1.90 (95 bb)
BB: $2.06 (103 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BTN with 8♠:8♦:
1 fold, MP calls $0.02, CO raises to $0.06, Hero calls $0.06, SB calls $0.05, 2 players fold

Flop: ($0.22) 8♣:2♥:A♣: (3 players)
SB bets $0.21, CO calls $0.21, Hero raises to $1.08, SB calls $0.87, CO raises to $1.67 (all-in), Hero calls $0.59, SB calls $0.59

Turn: ($5.23) 6♥: (3 players, 1 all-in)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.25, SB calls $0.17 (all-in)

River: ($5.57) 3♥: (3 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $5.57 (Rake: $0.19)

Showdown:
BU (Hero) shows 8♠:8♦: (three of a kind, Eights)
(Equity - Turn: 100%, River: 100%)

SB shows 9♦:A♠: (a pair of Aces)
(Equity - Turn: 0%, River: 0%)

CO shows K♦:A♦: (a pair of Aces)
(Equity - Turn: 0%, River: 0%)

BU (Hero) wins $5.38

Well, not entirely by itself, but it erased my NL 5-Card Draw losses

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 - 6 players

UTG: $25.81 (103 bb)
MP: $25.55 (102 bb)
CO: $45.31 (181 bb)
BU: $25.00 (100 bb)
SB (Hero): $30.84 (123 bb)
BB: $19.00 (76 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with A♠:K♠:
2 players fold, CO raises to $0.66, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets to $2.23, BB 4-bets to $3.80, 1 fold, Hero 5-bets to $30.84 (all-in), BB calls $15.20 (all-in)

Flop: ($38.66) 3♦:9♥:7♣: (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: ($38.66) K♥: (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($38.66) 7♠: (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $38.66 (Rake: $1.74)

Showdown:
SB (Hero) shows A♠:K♠: (two pair, Kings and Sevens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 46%, Flop: 24%, Turn: 95%, River: 100%)

BB shows J♠:J♥: (two pair, Jacks and Sevens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 54%, Flop: 76%, Turn: 5%, River: 0%)

SB (Hero) wins $36.92

300 hands of full-ring NL 25

The idea was to perhaps get a better score in the promo — but sadly the best run of the 5 was only good for 562th. In the end I did finish in profit — $0.23. Better than nothing.

This was the big winner of the session:
PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 - 8 players

UTG: $24.75 (99 bb)
UTG+1: $25.28 (101 bb)
MP: $46.81 (187 bb)
MP+1: $24.83 (99 bb)
CO: $13.18 (53 bb)
BU: $43.48 (174 bb)
SB: $22.17 (89 bb)
BB (Hero): $25.12 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with 9♦:9♣:
6 players fold, SB raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50) J♦:Q♦:2♦: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.74, SB calls $0.74

Turn: ($2.98) 4♠: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.48, SB calls $1.48

River: ($5.94) 9♥: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5.84, SB calls $5.84

Total pot: $17.62 (Rake: $0.79)

Showdown:
BB (Hero) shows 9♦:9♣: (three of a kind, Nines)
SB mucks J♠:5♣: (a pair of Jacks)
BB (Hero) wins $16.83

I recently have had some misclick equity in CG (I think that was last week or so?): accidentally made a 3-bet with K3o. But could bluff my way out and got the pot. :f_ugly::mdr:

on PokerStars
The details are in this post: https://forums.pokerstrategy.com/forum/thread.php?postid=3390427#post3390427
The complete promo details are here: https://www.pokerstars.com/poker/promotions/cash-races/

You play 60 hands per "lap" and the highest total gets a pretty decent prize.
Here are the current winners, the scores required to reach that position, and the payouts (for NL 25 — other stakes have different payout schedules.)
    Place  Score   Prize 
      1st   1678  200.00 
      2nd   1633  160.00 
      3rd   1631  120.00 
      4th   1578   80.00 
      5th   1568   40.00 
  to 10th   1544   30.00 
  to 20th   1516   20.00 
  to 50th   1473   10.00 
 to 100th   1441    6.00 
 to 200th   1398    4.00 
 to 300th   1374    3.00 
I haven't "cashed" in this promo for a few days, so I wondered how difficult it actually would be do score assuming today's run is typical.
So I wrote a python script that simulated 1,000,000 60-hand runs.
Max score: 1798
Min score: 825
Average score: 1221

As you can see, a run must be well above average to even make the money.
I'm going to modify the script a bit, and try to do a statistical analysis of the results.
You can only play 5 60-hand "laps" per stake per day, so once I had finished NL 25 (1283 pts, 776th place) I played some NL 10 and got one of the worst scores I ever achieved (1051 pts for 1622nd place)

There is a very rough correlation between your score in this promo, and how well you do at the table, which makes some sense since the higher the score, the higher your cards were. My dismal NL 10 promo score netted $0.87 cents, for the 60 hands, but the 5 runs of NL 25 garnered $13.02

Why do I bother with all this analysis stuff? I'm an unashamed nerd, and besides, it is better than playing poker for an hour for 87 cents!

I'm not sure what the standard deviation of this distribution is, but the top 5 are all greater than 3 standard deviation I'm guessing.
I'll play with more later.
In the meantime, here's the giraffe...

Early in the day though — can it hold? Can I do better?
This was just the first lap.

Question: Do I have "complete idiot" written on my forehead or something?
I'm not wearing it on a T-Shirt either, so I'm not sure where opponent was going with this...

Here I have a broadway on a board with a made flush, and even worse-the board is paired.
Opponent is relatively unknown, but over 30 hands hasn't stepped out of line even once that I noticed.

So when he bets the turn, what does he think I'll fold?[1]
PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 - 6 players

UTG: $29.82 (119 bb)
MP: $25.00 (100 bb)
CO (Hero): $31.12 (124 bb)
BU: $47.01 (188 bb)
SB: $25.00 (100 bb)
BB: $26.39 (106 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with J♠:K♥:
2 players fold, Hero raises to $0.60, BTN calls $0.60, 2 players fold <<< semi-bluffing a gutshot isn't insane I suppose

Flop: ($1.55) 5♣:A♣:T♣: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($1.55) Q♥: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.74, Hero calls $0.74

River: ($3.03) T♠: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Total pot: $3.03 (Rake: $0.14)

Showdown:
BU mucks 4♥:3♥: (a pair of Tens)
CO (Hero) shows J♠:K♥: (a straight, Ten to Ace)
CO (Hero) wins $2.89

[1] As I was writing this, I realized that he was expecting me to fold pretty much a hand exactly like mine, so maybe I'll be looking for a forehead tattoo. I was intending to bluff-catch OTR, but no need.

The importance of sample size.
I entered uncharted waters today, and used numpy and matplotlib — two python libraries for doing higher math.

I used the same simulation I did before, but this time used numpy to get the statistical values, rather than Excel.
It took well over a minute to generate the array of 100,000 iterations, but a few seconds to create the plot.
Here is the histogram for 100,000 simulations:

Here is the data from several different runs:

As you can see, it quickly settles down to consistent values.

So following the destructions in https://forums.pokerstrategy.com/forum/thread.php?postid=3392580#post3392580 we can calculate tha z-score for any given number

Let's use my $10 score from today — 1514
The mean is 1221.5
The standard deviation is 105.7
So z=(1514-1221.5)/105.7 which works out to 2.7 standard deviations above the mean.
Using a z-score table [1] we see that 1514 is at the
86th percentile of the distribution.

[1] I used https://www.z-table.com/how-to-use-z-score-table.html but I seriously recommend not going there unless you have a good working ad-blocker

I ran 10 iterations of the simulations but forgot to clear the output after each one.
Each iteration of 1 million 60-hand tests takes about 9 minutes, so a full run takes about an hour and a half.
Because of this, it is quite possible that the consistency I noticed earlier is false.
This is the histogram of all 10 million simulations.

And the data table:
  #      Count    Max  Min     Mean   Median  ModeV   ModeC[1] Std 
  1  1,000,000  1,866  792  1,221.6  1,217.0  1,203   3,874  105.7 
  2  1,000,000  1,866  792  1,221.5  1,217.0  1,206   7,692  105.6 
  3  1,000,000  1,866  792  1,221.5  1,217.0  1,218  11,537  105.6 
  4  1,000,000  1,971  792  1,221.5  1,217.0  1,208  15,375  105.6 
  5  1,000,000  1,971  792  1,221.5  1,217.0  1,218  19,207  105.6 
  6  1,000,000  1,971  789  1,221.5  1,217.0  1,218  23,009  105.6 
  7  1,000,000  1,971  789  1,221.5  1,217.0  1,216  26,710  105.6 
  8  1,000,000  1,971  789  1,221.5  1,217.0  1,208  30,495  105.6 
  9  1,000,000  1,971  789  1,221.5  1,217.0  1,216  34,334  105.6 
 10  1,000,000  1,971  789  1,221.5  1,217.0  1,216  38,157  105.6 

[1] The ModeV and ModeC items are the mode value (the most common occurrence and the number of times that that value occurred. This is how I clued in that the data wasn't clearing.

I see MicroMillions Marathon is currently running.

Will you be participating in any events?

I had a very quick look earlier but didn't take any notice of any mixed games to cater for you!

Hope all is well mate.

I was worried when the player to my left stood pat — I only had an 8-lo

In one hand I made as much as I did in 300 hands of NL 25

PokerStars, 2-7 Triple Draw Limit - $3/$6 - 6 players

UTG: $184.18 (61 bb)
MP: $59.32 (20 bb)
CO: $273.44 (91 bb)
BU (Hero): $86.00 (29 bb)
SB: $31.52 (11 bb)
BB: $262.82 (88 bb)

Deal: ($4) Hero is BTN with 2♦:4♦:8♥:Q♦:J♠:
3 players fold, Hero raises to $6, SB calls $5, BB 3-bets to $9, Hero calls $3, SB calls $3

Draw One: ($27) 2♦:4♦:8♥:3♦:7♣: (3 players)
SB draws 2, BB stands pat, BU (Hero) draws Q♦:J♠:
SB checks, BB bets $3, Hero calls $3, SB calls $3

Draw Two: ($36) 2♦:4♦:8♥:3♦:7♣: (3 players)
SB draws 1, BB stands pat, BU (Hero) stands pat
SB checks, BB bets $6, Hero calls $6, SB calls $6

Draw Three: ($54) 2♦:4♦:8♥:3♦:7♣: (3 players)
SB stands pat, BB stands pat, BU (Hero) stands pat
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks

Total pot: $54 (Rake: $1.62)

Showdown:
BB mucks 5♠:8♣:7♥:3♥:9♦: (9-8-7-5-3)
SB shows 3♠:2♥:7♠:8♦:5♥: (8-7-5-3-2)
BU (Hero) shows 2♦:4♦:8♥:3♦:7♣: (8-7-4-3-2)
BU (Hero) wins $52.38

Originally posted by UPAY4DINNER
I see MicroMillions Marathon is currently running.

Will you be participating in any events?
Hope all is well mate.

All is well, thanks.
I'll play the $4.40 2-7 Triple Draw and the $2.20 Stud hi/lo tomorrow, and maybe the 8-Game and Razz on Sunday — but they start early for me

Following a decent NL 25 effort as well...

I've had a $10 payout before, but I think 30th is my highest placement.
This was on the 5th try — on my second try I barely broke 1000 pts
If I fall below 50th, the prize drops to $6

It turns out that the consistency was real in the numbers we need to calculate the odds.

  #      Count    Max  Min     Mean   Median  ModeV  ModeC    Std 
  1  1,000,000  1,795  806  1,221.6  1,217.0  1,208  3,885  105.7 
  2  1,000,000  1,805  819  1,221.5  1,217.0  1,222  3,874  105.8 
  3  1,000,000  1,830  812  1,221.6  1,217.0  1,210  3,865  105.8 
  4  1,000,000  1,819  823  1,221.6  1,217.0  1,216  3,896  105.7 
  5  1,000,000  1,823  810  1,221.6  1,217.0  1,216  3,939  105.7 
  6  1,000,000  1,776  834  1,221.4  1,217.0  1,200  3,898  105.6 
  7  1,000,000  1,845  798  1,221.6  1,217.0  1,210  3,894  105.7 
  8  1,000,000  1,774  829  1,221.5  1,217.0  1,199  3,947  105.8 
  9  1,000,000  1,835  839  1,221.6  1,217.0  1,209  3,853  105.7 
 10  1,000,000  1,818  816  1,221.7  1,217.0  1,213  3,905  105.7 

So following the destructions in https://forums.pokerstrategy.com/forum/thread.php?postid=3392580#post3392580 we can calculate tha z-score for any given number

Let's use my $10 score from today — 1514
The mean is 1221.5
The standard deviation is 105.7
So z=(1514-1221.5)/105.7 which works out to 2.7 standard deviations above the mean.
Using a z-score table [1] we see that 1514 is at the
99th percentile of the distribution.

[1] I used https://www.z-table.com/how-to-use-z-score-table.html but I seriously recommend not going there unless you have a good working ad-blocker

Min-Cashed
This is the tragedy hand — lots of money in there, but simply got outdraw.
Shortly after that busted out with another dealt pat and outdrawn.

The Stud hi/lo starts in 15 minutes or so.

PokerStars, $3.92 + $0.48 - 2-7 Triple Draw Limit - 1,500/3,000 - 5 players

UTG: 32,290 (11 bb)
CO: 81,505 (27 bb)
BU: 70,745 (24 bb)
SB (Hero): 54,990 (18 bb)
BB: 52,145 (17 bb)

Deal: (4,500) Hero is SB with 4♦:3♠:2♠:5♥:8♠:
1 fold, CO raises to 6,000, BTN calls 6,000, Hero 3-bets to 9,000, BB 4-bets to 12,000, CO calls 6,000, BTN calls 6,000, Hero calls 3,000

Draw One: (48,000) 4♦:3♠:2♠:5♥:8♠: (4 players)
SB (Hero) stands pat, BB draws 1, CO draws 2, BU draws 2
Hero bets 3,000, BB raises to 6,000, CO folds, BTN calls 6,000, Hero calls 3,000

Draw Two: (66,000) 4♦:3♠:2♠:5♥:8♠: (3 players)
SB (Hero) stands pat, BB draws 1, BU draws 1
Hero bets 6,000, BB calls 6,000, BTN raises to 12,000, Hero calls 6,000, BB calls 6,000

Draw Three: (102,000) 4♦:3♠:2♠:5♥:8♠: (3 players)
SB (Hero) stands pat, BB draws 1, BU stands pat
Hero checks, BB checks, BTN bets 6,000, Hero calls 6,000, BB folds

Total pot: 114,000

Showdown:
BU shows 7♣:4♥:2♦:3♦:6♦: (7-6-4-3-2)
SB (Hero) mucks 4♦:3♠:2♠:5♥:8♠: (8-5-4-3-2)
BU wins 114,000

Let's hope it continues...
PokerStars, $1.96 + $0.24 - 7 Stud H/L Limit - 50/100 (20 ante) - 7 players

Seat 4: 11,590 (116 bb)
Seat 5: 10,000 (100 bb)
Seat 6: 9,980 (100 bb)
Seat 8: 9,980 (100 bb)
Seat 1: 8,610 (86 bb)
Seat 2: 10,690 (107 bb)
Seat 3 (Hero): 9,960 (100 bb)

Third Street: (140) Hero is in Seat 3
6♠:3♥:4♦: Hero bring-in 30____Hero calls 70
Xx Xx J♥: UTG folds
Xx Xx Q♦: UTG+1 folds
Xx Xx 9♥: MP folds
Xx Xx Q♠: MP+1 folds
Xx Xx A♦: CO raises to 100
Xx Xx Q♥: BTN calls 100

Fourth Street: (440) (3 players)
Xx Xx A♦:9♠: CO bets 100
Xx Xx Q♥:7♠: BTN calls 100
6♠:3♥:4♦:2♠: Hero calls 100

Fifth Street: (740) (3 players)
Xx Xx A♦:9♠:K♥: CO bets 200____CO calls 200
Xx Xx Q♥:7♠:4♠: BTN folds
6♠:3♥:4♦:2♠:5♠: Hero raises to 400

Sixth Street: (1,540) (2 players)
Xx Xx A♦:9♠:K♥:2♥: CO bets 200____CO calls 200
6♠:3♥:4♦:2♠:5♠:8♣: Hero raises to 400

Seventh Street: (2,340) (2 players)
Xx Xx A♦:9♠:K♥:2♥: Xx CO checks____CO calls 200
6♠:3♥:4♦:2♠:5♠:8♣:A♣: Hero bets 200

Total pot: 2,740

Showdown:
Seat 3 (Hero) shows 6♠:3♥:4♦:2♠:5♠:8♣:A♣: (HI: a straight, Two to Six; LO: 5-4-3-2-A)
Seat 1 mucks K♦:K♣:A♦:9♠:K♥:2♥:8♥: (HI: three of a kind, Kings)
Seat 3 (Hero) wins 2,740

Ah, so you're in the Stud Hi-Lo too. Best of luck!

I regged late and after about 30 minutes of playing, I don't think I have had a playable hand yet, at least none that remained playable past 4th street.

I'm not in the best state of mind for grinding once again, but for a special tournament like this, I think it is justified.