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PLO50 AA54ss 3bet pot, river plan?

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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

Another reggy tag player. Capable of some big moves.

Flop cbet is standard for me but perhaps I should mainly check with stacks being 200bb deep? Not sure if that matter much really. Reasoning to bet for me was unblocking big pockets. Facing raise on flop is kinda tricky as its imo very very underbluffed spot. But imo cant just bet-fold to very small raise with AA and bd stuff. Turn is best one possible outside of A so have to call big bet.

River give me nut boat but its very ballsy play if he is bluffing. Kudos to him if he had 33. But yeah interesting part is river plan. Outside of A we are not that happy to face shove. Not super thrilled even on that. On other hand straightening rivers are somewhat unlikely to improve villain to boat and boats are fairly unlikely with 2 or 3. But then again most clubs are somewhat tricky. Especially those like 9-K can easily improve villain as well.

Game #2043685187: Table €50 PL - 0.25/0.50 - Pot Limit Omaha - 13:08:15 2024/02/19
Seated players
Seat 1: FrolundaHC (€142.08)
Seat 2: 123FIGHT (€100.84)
Seat 3: Omaha_Coast (€49.86)
Seat 4: Kabasaa (€108.11)
Seat 5: Salamongant (€56.64)
Seat 6: hanskazanni (€25.12)
Blinds and button
123FIGHT has the button
Omaha_Coast posts small blind €0.25
Kabasaa posts big blind €0.50
Hole cards
Dealt to Kabasaa A♣:5♠:A♦:4♣:
Preflop
Salamongant folds
hanskazanni folds
FrolundaHC folds
123FIGHT raises €1.75 to €1.75
Omaha_Coast folds
Kabasaa raises €5 to €5.50
123FIGHT calls €3.75
Flop 8♠:3♣:8♥: (11.25€)
Kabasaa bets €3.50
123FIGHT raises €8.06 to €8.06
Kabasaa calls €4.56
Turn 2♣: (27.37€)
Kabasaa checks
123FIGHT bets €20.52
Kabasaa calls €20.52
River 8♣: (68.41€)
Kabasaa checks
123FIGHT bets €66.76, and is all-in
Kabasaa folds


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5 replies
Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

If you have read that opponent is capable to make moves, I would call the river. You have 2nd nuts and lose only to an 8. If he has naked trips, his sizing turns from flop small to turn big. My rule of thumb is that I don't fear quads with nut boat.

For big move players they can get attached to the idea of bluffing you out. It starts with flop bluff raise, turn might give something or he just wants to bet you off as your hand really looks like non-8. On the other hand, most of players wouldn't fold AA on the river. But on the other hand, most players shouldn't have naked AA after turn. If he has Axxx blocker, I can easily see him getting carried away.

Fold turn or call river imo.


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

Yeah its somewhat tight to fold river perhaps. But I dont know when accounting one of most dry flops possible. Not too much bluffs most people would go for imo.


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Primrose6789
Joined: 01.07.2016

Okay, well, I´m just a recreational player but if Villain is really capable of big moves, I would have called river.

I think I would have called river anyway, because quads, in general, are unlikely. Do you really think Villain could have called your pre 3-bet with an 8? Their flop raise could be simply a "backflash" to your standard-bet on a paired board. On my limits, people fold, but I remember Kyyberi saying that on PLO50 and higher, you will get backlash if you do that, because people know that move very well. As they are an aggressive reg, their flop-raise could be exactly that: paired board and they may not put you on an 8 in a 3-bet pot, this flop does not look like you may have hit it hard, so it may be easy to bluff you out. On what do they put you? Mostly on acies, kings, high double suited broadway hands most of which have missed this very flop!

As mentioned, an 8 in their hand may be possible but less likely. As the river brings another 8, 8xxx combos get even less likely. Here, their range could be an 8xxx, but also pure bluffs or KKxx? I would call and if Villain indeed holds an 8, then so be it!


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

50% opening range has 8 about 30% of times. I wouldn't be surprised if he had an 8, as his sizings are kinda "non-normal". It often happens with quads, as it happens so rarely and usually then opponents can't have much, that people start to deviate from standard sizings. And it's a credible story for an 8, turn big bet is protection for naked trips.

But my rule of thumb is that we don't fear quads. Once we start to hero fold for those, we might start to make too many bad folds.


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ZakYoun270
Joined: 10.12.2015

Looks alright. At least in the pools that I splash in, people just aren't raising flop and barreling turn river with air often enough for us to want to show this down.


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