My Ranting blog

Originally posted by marsa08

I bought 150€ of Chelsea @1,92 today for the FA cup on 13.3. I think that the odds will shorten when the gameday gets closer because Zlatan got banned from Manchester United. Now at 1,93 though but I think that they will drop when the mug punters see that Zlatan is gone ♦
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Already in profit. Could lay now at 1,89 for 3 ticks profit but going to wait for bigger drop. Free sportstrading tips here by me huh?

Also I backed PSG for Barcelona vs PSG game that is today at 21:45 @ 7,2 and @ 7,4 yesterday as I read rumours on twitter that PSG has the best squad that they can get to the game - now it is at 6.6-6.8 and already made almost 7% profit there ! Not sure if I should sell that away already. I'll see how the odds and news develop.

Made a nice 19,7% roi on my psg trade. Layed it off at 6.0 because I was thinking that It would start to go against me but apparently now it is at 5.9 so I could have gotten even more value. Well, Still nice. Back at 7,2 and 7,4, lay at 6.0. My biggest trade % wise so far.

Only tades open at the moment is Chelsea backed at 1,92 and Tottenham at 1,22. Both in small profit. Not going to open anymore trades for today.

Nice-Caen today at 20:00. Backing Nice just now at 1,77 and 1,78. Betfairs line is way too high compared to other bookies dropping the odds. It should come down too.

Edit: Cahsed out straight away for around 0 profit they had some bad news for nice.

Still doomed in the pokerworld. That river is perfect for my range. I have a bunch of fullhouses with 44 and 22 and some straights and villain should basically fold almost 100% of his range ( "All" Ax, posible missed fd, even stuff like A2 and A4 as they are forfeited now) I'd expect him to re-raise at some point with a set+ so his range is super capped otr. Even some 3x that he has(should not have many 3x in range here, A3.. thats it?) might have hard time calling as the board is paired.

Well, Ofc he has like the one combo of all the possible combos and he hits a miracle runout for his hand........ :f_mad:.

Preflop: defend vs 2x open.

Flop: I raise as we have 2nd nut fd + the nut backdoor str8. He should be cbetting a bunch of air/weakish hands on this board that he folds + btn range is wider so he should have wide enough range to fold.

Turn: We hit the backdoor nut straightdraw and get some more outs + fold eq so betting again

River: explained earlier alreaddy kinda but yea good card for my range.
Imo I played it ok but got just unlucky. Uhh just ugly.

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

SB: $17.18 (171.8 bb)
Hero (BB): $10.15 (101.5 bb)
UTG: $10.43 (104.3 bb)
MP: $6.51 (65.1 bb)
CO: $13.43 (134.3 bb)
BTN: $10 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q♠: 6♠:
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.20, SB folds, Hero calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.45) 4♣: A♠: 2♠: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.35, Hero raises to $1.30, BTN calls $0.95

Turn: ($3.05) 5♥: (2 players)
Hero bets $2.30, BTN calls $2.30

River: ($7.65) 5♦: (2 players)
Hero bets $6.35, BTN calls $6.20 and is all-in

Results: $20.05 pot ($1.33 rake)
Final Board: 4♣: A♠: 2♠: 5♥: 5♦:
Hero mucked Q♠: 6♠: and won $0.00 (-$10 net)
BTN showed 5♠: A♣: and won $18.72 ($8.72 net)

Long time no update. Played around 5k hands last month. -8 bin. -26bin this year so far.

Decided to play a session today after a long break. No hope, played for 15 minutes and these 2 hands come:

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players

Hero (SB): $10.90 (109 bb)
BB: $10.38 (103.8 bb)
CO: $10 (100 bb)
BTN: $11.09 (110.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A♦: A♥:
CO raises to $0.25, BTN raises to $0.90, Hero raises to $2.60, 2 folds, BTN calls $1.70

Flop: ($5.55) 3♦: 6♥: 5♣: (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, BTN raises to $8.49 and is all-in, Hero calls $6.80

Turn: ($22.15) T♠: (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($22.15) K♠: (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $22.15 pot ($1.47 rake)
Final Board: 3♦: 6♥: 5♣: T♠: K♠:
Hero mucked A♦: A♥: and lost (-$10.90 net)
BTN showed T♦: T♣: and won $20.68 ($9.78 net)

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players

SB: $10.72 (107.2 bb)
BB: $10.15 (101.5 bb)
Hero (CO): $10.15 (101.5 bb)
BTN: $8.46 (84.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J♦: J♥:
Hero raises to $0.30, BTN folds, SB raises to $1, BB folds, Hero calls $0.70

Flop: ($2.10) J♣: 9♦: 5♦: (2 players)
SB bets $1.20, Hero calls $1.20

Turn: ($4.50) 7♦: (2 players)
SB bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

River: ($9.50) 5♠: (2 players)
SB bets $6.02, Hero calls $5.45 and is all-in

Results:$20.40 pot ($1.36 rake)
Final Board: J♣: 9♦: 5♦: 7♦: 5♠:
SB showed 8♦: 6♦: and won $19.04 ($8.89 net)
Hero mucked J♦: J♥: and lost (-$10.15 net)

Just bs. I really hate this game. Every time I play a few hands this same sh*t for the last 1 year. Sucks that I bought the gold membership to here pokerstrategy as I don't feel like watching even 1 vid I'm just so sick of this. Actually only watched a lot of vids in 1st month of 2017 after that not a single coaching video. (and not a lot of poker either)

This game sucks the life out of me if I play. --> I don't play so I will feel happy.

Hi!

Very interested about your sports odds trading. How long have you been doing it, any advice or walk through?
Appreciate it

Originally posted by IvicaIliev77
Hi!

Very interested about your sports odds trading. How long have you been doing it, any advice or walk through?
Appreciate it

Sorry for long time no response, I was on a break from poker so didn't browse these forums much either.

And yeah I was just trading pre-match football. Reading injury reports and etc. etc. and trying to find out what the "dumb money" was doing to move the odds. For example a big name player is not in the starting line-up --> odds increase therefore just try to lay the team as soon as the news arrive and then when they rise you can back higher. Same with some big name team that has been on a hot run vs a team that has been loosing. The putners favor the hot big team and the odds drop. Its fairly easy to predict. It is profitable to do this, just time consuming and low ROI because the odds do not fluctuate that much prematch.

I have 5 figure turnover for this year so far with few % ROI, not going to tell the exact numbers but its decent. Now getting bored of this though as no games in summer time + I have started to play and study poker again and I enjoy it.

Its kinda stressful to trade sports because you have to follow the news all the time and you are tied to certain times (kick-off times of the games etc. and you have to monitor the odds) In-play trading would not be so stressful because the timeframe is limited to the runtime of the game but it is more challenging than prematch trading. Also higher roi is possible to achieve in in-play trading.

In short:
-Small roi, high turnover possible with prematch trading
-super low variance (thats why also high roi not possible, Id say 0,5%-3% longterm is decent), I'd say lowest variance in all possible trading that you can do.
-Time consuming because you have to follow the news and odds

^

Also when you follow the markets you can see trends how the odds move regarding to news and other things like how liked the team is etc.. Once you spot these trends its easier to predict where the odds will move. But yeah getting back to poker now as I have started to enjoy it now again.

After my ~4month break spent like 60hours+ on studying + finding leaks, analyzing spots etc. Results after all this, feeling good.

Since the start of blog.

Last year, low volume as you can see.

-100bin soon

Friday games, not many interesting hands

Saturday, not much time for playing.

Few hands:

Here maybe made a bit too big x/r, 2.5x would be better

Trying out flop overbets, so far have liked them, here is one good spot.

On sunday took first 2 bin shot to nl50 (after my few year break), lost 2 bins quite fast. Standard spots like QQ vs AK all in pre etc. Will take another shot when I rebuild, I'm playing with quite aggro brm so I have to move up and down stakes.

Anyways, got inspired by the legend N3bojsa and tried to play looser game. I have tried it before but back then I was not so skilled, I was too spewy. Now I know better (maybe :f_biggrin:) . Here are the results for today playing 31/25 with 14% 3bet

FIrst time with positive redline, usually I play with loosing redline.