Originally posted by osmium
what do think about checking the turn? If he is agressive on the turn I like to c/r here cause he might bet and go broke with TP like hands. There really are not too many draws out so a freebee doesnt hurt too much I think. He also doesnt look like the guy who will calldown a bare pair on this flop when you barrel 3 times.
If you decide to bet flop and turn I like to c/c the river for pot control. He might vbet a J again.
As played I am not sure wheater or not I can fold the river cause we are getting good odds.
Checking the turn is bad, most players will check behind anything but their monsters.
Same counts for the river, the only opponent who might place a thin valuebet with KJ on the river would be a good TAG - this guy plays a 41/12 style.
Originally posted by mbml
I think I'm definitely calling, the odds are so good, he's a fish. I don't think we really have to fear him that much. I can see ourselves winning more than 25% of the time since the fish can be spazzing out with some random shit and I think we need a good reason to believe that he is solid enough. This would definitely be a bet/fold if he has <1 AF but he is almost 3.
I'm folding this all day, there was one OESD and it got there, the guy plays call/call/minraise - if he had a draw like Q9 or T9 he has us beat - if he has a bad 1pair- hand he either calls or folds, no fish is turning a pair into a bluff.
And btw: The AF is a number that you get by taking every spot the player ever was in on flop, turn and river, look whether he raised, called or folded and put all these actions into ONE number - and then you determine how often he bluffraises the river by looking at a number that mostly consists of completely other data.
Don't do that, get reads.
And I think 3 barreling is definitely good, we have the best hand most of the time and want to get max value. Even though he only has 20 WTS, the fact that he is a 41/12 makes me believe that he can call 3 streets with a lot more worse hands.
Agree.
So all in all nh, you get very good odds but the call/call/minraise line represents a very polarized range which i believe has almost no bluffs in it - i think you won't be ahead often enough to make the call profitable.
