NL 2 - All in raise with nut flush

Originally posted by NAoise
Can I fold the nut flush here?

Well, of course you can but the should you?

You need to put in 65.5 BB to win 101.5 BB
Hopefully somebody will replay with the correct calculation that says how often CO must be behind for you to break even. I've long forgotten it.

In this case, this is a superb spot for anyone to bluff with a high spade — you just happen to have higher.
But it is also a superb spot for a player with a pair of kings, sevens, sixes or twos to get maximum value.

At NL 2 I'll call this all day.
At NL 50, I'll fold this all day.
Anywhere in between, I'll flip a coin.

Dang!
I was really hoping somebody would drop by with the calculation. Now I'm going to have to look it up.

Call exactly...

Not sure how you come with the 101,5bb pot. Pot was already 30,5bb before the river action.
Pot after the call will be 30,5+20+85,5+65,5= 201,5bb if you don't count the rake.
That means if my calculation is correct that you need to call 65,5bb to win 201,5bb is 32,5% times that you need to win to make call profitable.

If you use a calculator like equilab, but I don't think the software works anymore. See for example the strategy article Ranges & Equity (4): Equity: Final Calls.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Originally posted by SDK1987
Not sure how you come with the 101,5bb pot. Pot was already 30,5bb before the river action.
Pot after the call will be 30,5+20+85,5+65,5= 201,5bb if you don't count the rake.

It's easy, you just mis-type a 1 instead of a two

Originally posted by SDK1987
That means if my calculation is correct that you need to call 65,5bb to win 201,5bb is 32,5% times that you need to win to make call profitable.

Thanks for the link
So the formula would be:

Required_Equity = Amount_to_Call/(Amount_to_Call + Pot_before_call)

This is profitable if your actual equty is > than the required equity.

Originally posted by SDK1987
If you use a calculator like equilab, but I don't think the software works anymore.

Equilab works fine, and can still be downloaded here: Equilab

Just for laughs, I gave opponent a range of: JJ+, 77-66, AJs+, A2s, KQs, AQo+, A2o, KQo
Equilab Preflop:

       Equity     Win     Tie
MP3    40.66%  38.96%   1.70% { AsTh }
CO     59.34%  57.64%   1.70% { JJ+, 77-66, AJs+, A2s, KQs, AQo+, A2o, KQo }

On the River:

Board: 2♠2♥6♠ 7♠ K♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP3    86.36%  86.36%   0.00% { AsTh }
CO     13.64%  13.64%   0.00% { JJ+, 77-66, AJs+, A2s, KQs, AQo+, A2o, KQo }

Good to know. Since I don't play much anymore since the regurlations in the Netherlands I don't use Equilab anymore.

Gonna put a thought or two here.

First of all, what would you think that co's range is? Without stats but with 100 bb I'd assume they are some sort of a reg. So they could flat with suited connectors, lower pocket pairs, in nl2 with some broadway with same suits.

After you bet the flop, against some decent reg the range is not too filtered. Anything from overcards with 1-2 spade should call, as well as 22/66 and overpairs.

On turn I would keep applying pressure with our draw. Villain's half pot seems weak and as played I could go for check/raise.

River line is out of game tree, but get back to ranges. If he had a pocket pair or lower suited connector, would he jam the river? In general this pool (NL2) is very passive and you just turned your hand face up. You block their Ax spades combos and they would not most likely jam over that donk with lower spade.

So, what range would shove river? I can't find natural bluffs and you block the value hand he could jam on 4-to-flush..