Just wanted to let people know that due to constant internet fails, I'm going have to concede this bet to Fongie.
Whilst it's disappointing, I'm more than happy with the fact that it gave me the incentive to put in something approaching reasonable volume, and would recommend it to anyone looking for an incentive to put the hands in.
Once my connection regains some sort of stability, I shall be back to challenge again on even ground (i.e. I'm gonna handicap the motherf***** 
).
Hey Fongie, some comments on the hand:
Trying to get somebody to fold a set is kind of hard IMO. Even regulars will be calling off stacks on this board, just because they don't like to fold and by the river theyll go "Meh, pot odds, call." I don't know how it is in higher limits. But people just love to call in NL100.
I think I like raising bigger on the flop. I'd raise closer to pot, like $29, because like you said, you're getting it in if he 3bets no matter what. But nevertheless, you have Q high and you'd like to take down the pot right now. You set up a turn shove + you can still check back if an ugly card such as the 7 falls. You can shove any broadway turn. He's gonna have to fold 77, 67, 78, T9, 97, etc. And if he doesn't fold it, well you still got a ton of equity AND your range here consists of overpairs or sets a lot more than draws, in which case he's making a costly mistake against your range.
And then on that specific turn card, I'd check back, because 65, T9, 55 and TT don't fold. All together have 42 combos combos, whereas there are 12 combos of sets and 27 combos of 2P (I'm only counting the connectors). So, not knowing if you can get him to fold a set, and having so many straight possibilities, I like the check behind. If you do hit gin on the river, he's gonna have a hard time folding his straight, because you've bloated up the pot on the flop with your bigger raise and you can safely give up when you don't hit.
So these are my thoughts ♦
BTW: I'm in the same boat as you. My confidence is kind of crushed. I'm down 23BI for the month 
Of course I'm $2k below EV, but still, my EV is a little negative for ~70k hands. But we just gotta stay focused. My plan is to devote more time to studying and play fewer tables until I start winning again and have restored my confidence! Rough times happen, but they'll pass! ♠_cool:
about the hand: i agree with calta in most parts.
but: he almost never has a set here. 1) ppl dont always donk out sets. and if get raised on such a wet board they like to 3bet small the flop
he also doesnt have T9 cuz he would c/rai turn or bet himself given 2 fds out and oop on the river. in the rare case he has T9 and he c/c turn he shoves river himself.
he has the hand he has a ton of the time. so how to get him to fold? with pure air i bet turn 1/5 and overbet shove river if checked to me. that way we know he is not strong and we have tons of fe due to stack/pot ratio.
as played, he gets monster odds, so he "cant" fold.
with your hand i might either shove turn AI vs scared ppl who fold 2 pair. vs standard fish i check back and try to hit. he checked to me its opp. dependent whether to overbet shove or not.
gl for your next sessions sir!
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maybe in spots like that you have to think about what you're repping? looks like on the turn the only value hands you could have are TT and draws with a T like QTcc, you wouldn't bet again with sets or overpairs which you were repping on the flop.
i don't know how often villain thinks you would raise flop with TT and draws, and if he thinks you can have draws, then he probably realises that a lot of draws didn'T hit on the turn, like QJcc. also, would you bet turn with Tx?
26/11
Thanks for the posts guys! Sorry I haven't been responding here, but to be honest I'm a bit sick of poker right now I agree with your points on that hand, it's grossly misplayed and I didn't think at all about the stack-pot ratio or anything (cause the river spot sucks), mainly due to being unfocused and possibly playing too many tables. Otherwise, bluffs are the only thing in general that are working right now. Just came back from a -5 stack session with 3 lost 2-outers, ouch!
I might take a complete break from poker soon or something, because I just puke at it. Atleast I just spammed the hand eval forum with some hands and might find something there. While going through some of the hands I marked (gotta love HEM) I found some really dodgy ones I misplayed SO BADLY. Seeing that tilts me even more than my last session :f_o:.
It's not like I've been losing so much cause I've been getting very unlucky either (I can't show off a nice EV graph like *other people* :P, I'm like running above AI EV!), which is even worse for my confidence. When you keep running into coolers, or top of the range, if that's even what I'm doing.. you start to question your ability to read your opponents hand range, which really isn't a good thing.
I will have to think about what to do to improve again. Playing less tables will probably be the first thing to change... Playing 6 or 9 a few sessions will probably be relaxing and leave me more time to think.
Confidence at rock bottom, I might be looking for another coaching session soon TT I feel my game has like changed a lot through these bad periods since our last session and I'm starting to think it's for the worse.
Summary: 90k hands NL100 now +-0
As to increasing volume this month... well, I did increase it. Not by enough though. After hitting a nice -13 BI downer 10 days ago or so at the same time as getting Dragon Age Origins, my volume somehow decreased to about 1/5th of what I was playing before during that time. Still havent finished the game, will be nice to have done it so I can go back to normal volume again 
(did play 3k h/day the last 3 days though).
I FINALLY FINISHED DRAGON AGE! Damn, took a while. Still gonna have to replay the ending like ten times to see all the options there... hard choices all the way there So good!
Damn, i cannot make it past where the undead attacks the fishing village, which lvl were u when u tried doign it :)?
Hmm, I actually did redcliffe first after getting out of flemeths hut, so it was early in the game. That was pretty hard though, had to be a bit tactical with the party in a hidden spot and then I pulled a few mobs at a time (this is when you get some guy who says "come here they attack over here.." or w/e, the hard part) after killing all the initial mobs there with an INFERNO!
Just keep trying and try different approaches to it, you'll get it eventually. Remember that using pots is always a big part of the game (and believe me there are some fights that are shit hard)
Now, to poker...
IM SO SICK OF IT ! lol, I had like 2 days without poker during the weekend fencing competition - team national championship. It was fun, I fenced kinda well and it went kinda good - no need for any more comment on that. Came back today to play my last day for ironman, and immedliatly ran into some heavy shit.
Now Im gonna post about it, because my mindset (whatever I had of it) is shattered anyway and I don't care if this is bad mindset or not
Villain: reg 28/24
Here's what villain is thinking when playing this hand:
He's restealing against me. This guy is pretty aggressive. I can call 64s here in position because I have an edge in luckboxing against him anyway.
Dealt to Hero A♥ A♠
fold, fold, CO raises to $3.50, fold, fold, Hero raises to $12, CO calls $8.50
FLOP ($24.50) 6♣ 4♣ 8♠
Hero bets $12, CO calls $12
TURN ($48.50) 6♣ 4♣ 8♠ 2♥
Hero checks, CO bets $33, Hero raises to $80.50 (AI), CO calls $47.50
RIVER ($209) 6♣ 4♣ 8♠ 2♥ 4♦
Hero shows A♥ A♠
(Pre 79%, Flop 26.2%, Turn 18.2%)
CO shows 6♠ 4♠
(Pre 21%, Flop 73.8%, Turn 81.8%)
CO wins $206
I was gonna post some more hands here but w/e its just regular coolers, ran straight into higher straight (74 on 568 against 97) and flush into lower flush (WHICH I avoided getting stacked in when he c/r a flushed river smallish and I only called, but still). I got back at them by winning QQ vs KK..... against a 15bb stack. FML!
Well, I think the plan now is to have a week's break or so and then maybe play some lower stakes (NL50) to rebuild my confidence. It's not like I have to drop down bankrollwise, but I'm just getting destroyed right now and my mind is all over the place so I need to calm down..
ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR Im on total lifetilt atm
Hey hey, as I said I'm on a bit of a break right now. Actually I decided I felt like playing some NL50 HU just now and SECOND hand (after folding to an open raise) I ran AK into KK preflop all in, instaquit the table and now I'm extending the break a bit Looking forward to a party weekend, both tomorrow and sunday so that's good!
9/12
Hey hey hey! Starting to edge back into the game and finding the fun, today I played like 5 NL100SH tables and 4 NL50 FR tables. I have this idea that maybe FR is fun afterall. I'm really surprised so far at how fishy it seems to be. Most epic hand today was some guy who limped behind 3 limpers on CO, called my raise flopped trip kings and just called down 3 big bets from me (I had KJ).
Wait.. no, that's not the best hand.
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($100)
BB ($115)
Hero ($193)
UTG+1 ($86.65)
CO ($108)
BTN ($225)
Dealt to Hero 5♣ 3♣
Hero raises to $3, UTG+1 calls $3, fold, BTN calls $3, SB calls $2.50, fold
FLOP ($13) 2♣ A♦ 4♥
SB checks, Hero bets $9, UTG+1 calls $9, BTN raises to $37, SB folds, Hero raises to $85, UTG+1 folds, BTN calls $48
TURN ($192) 2♣ A♦ 4♥ T♦
Hero bets $105 (AI), BTN calls $105
RIVER ($402) 2♣ A♦ 4♥ T♦ 3♦
BTN shows 2♥ A♥
(Pre 57%, Flop 22.3%, Turn 9.1%)
Hero shows 5♣ 3♣
(Pre 43%, Flop 77.7%, Turn 90.9%)
Hero wins $399
Woho 
Rounded up my session nicely 
Fun fact: My FR and SH stats are almost identical except 3% tighter vpip/pfr on FR
hey there Fongie
I suggest playing FR for 1-2 weeks. FR at FTP is really easy at NL100 - Full of free money. I could 16 table and beat the games at 4PTbb/100 2 months ago because there were just too many fish. It's harder at Stars though.
Once you win all your losses back and stop tilting, then you should resume your SH tables. I think it's a great way to remotivate yourself
Originally posted by mbml
FR at FTP is really easy at NL100 - Full of free money. I could 16 table and beat the games at 4PTbb/100 2 months ago because there were just too many fish.
you were obviously on a huge heater unless you're insanely good
17/12
Hey ho hey.. some news needed here I guess!
Weekend was spent in Örebro in the swedish junior championships, fencing of course... Another fairly bad competition by me (just gotta realise I suck soon :P) individually, although in the team competition I fenced well and saved the team (go me). Pokerwise I'm not putting in much volume but playing a bit. I need to start soon though cause I might get rent to pay in a while 
Here's today's session.
about the picture of my runs lately Really though, I seem to play better with lesser tables so I'm prolly not gonna go over 9 tables again for a while.
27/12
Valuetown
Villain: 25/20 reg 3k hands
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
Hero ($100)
BB ($101)
UTG ($20)
UTG+1 ($101)
CO ($39.65)
BTN ($99.60)
Dealt to Hero T♠ K♣
fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $3, BB calls $2
FLOP ($6) T♥ 3♦ 3♥
Hero bets $4, BB calls $4
TURN ($14) T♥ 3♦ 3♥ 6♣
Hero checks, BB bets $10, Hero raises to $32, BB calls $22
RIVER ($78) T♥ 3♦ 3♥ 6♣ 6♥
Hero bets $61 (AI), BB calls $61
Hero shows T♠ K♣
(Pre 37%, Flop 72.1%, Turn 86.4%)
BB shows A♦ J♥
(Pre 63%, Flop 27.9%, Turn 13.6%)
Hero wins $197
On another note, been a while since I posted. Had a bit of a break over christmas, and now I'm mainly 4-5 tabling and trying to think about my game a bit, because I'm convinced it needs some improving. I'm running pretty hot so far in my 4-table-adventure if you consider the amount of hands
After new years even I'll try to make a playing schedule of sorts, incorporating:
- morning jog + exercises (need for fencing)
- playing few tables to pwn more
- playing more tables to get volume
- profit
Edit:
Oh and I'm thinking about moving to stars next year to ship supernova.. not sure why really rb on ftp is pretty nice and I dunno if supernova is really any better. Anyone got an opinion on this?
Yeah but, "can" I think involves hitting all the milestone bonuses which require like 5x the amount of vpps required for just supernova.. not sure how much I can hope to gather in a year, so much can happen :/
I mean, if stars = 40% rb.. why aren't you playing there next year? Maybe you are but I thought you played on some dodgy site
I'm moving there next year as you said 
True, it "can" get over 40%, but if it doesn't, it still beats FTP, doesn't it? I mean, what doesn't beat 27% rakeback? =P
I'm in a dodgy site indeed: Titan Poker, lol. I can get 40% - 50% rb here, but the traffic kind of sucks imo. And the software is probably the worst ever.
So, come on, let's go to starts and crush the tables ♠_cool:
Omg so if I move there I'm gonna have to play you.... that means RUNNING GOOD AGAINST SOMEONE, see ya there! hehe, we'll still see.
