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[Closed] NL100SH Trying to turn a misclick into +EV =D

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caltabiano
Joined: 09.03.2007

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) IPoker
SB ($158)
BB ($125)
UTG ($101)
CO ($175)
Hero ($317)

Dealt to Hero Q♠ A♣

fold, CO raises to $3, Hero calls $3, SB raises to $14, fold, CO raises to $31, Hero calls $28, fold

FLOP ($77) 4♥ 7♠ 6♠

CO checks, Hero checks

TURN ($77) 4♥ 7♠ 6♠ T♠

CO checks, Hero checks

RIVER ($77) 4♥ 7♠ 6♠ T♠ 5♣

CO bets $36, Hero raises to $286 (AI),

So, I misclicked pre flop. I thought of stabbing right on the flop, but I figured I'd wait till turn to see if he was going for the c/r. When the turn came, I thought about betting again but then I figured that he's gonna fold AK on the river anyway, so I check back. Then he bets half pot on the river and I figured he could only have AK here, as if he had an overpair he'd have bet before. And since I look like I have nothing, he could easily be stabbing it.

The only problem here is that I don't rep much as I'd also have usually bet with something. He'd never call AK though.


4 replies
VzLOM
Joined: 23.12.2007

The only problem here is that I don't rep much

this.
If he is kind of thinking, sometimes he will have hand with sd value (Tx atleast) and sometimes he will call it cos u cant rep anythink.


caltabiano
Joined: 09.03.2007

I'm investing $144 to get $103, so it has to work about 60% of the time to show a profit.
Don't you think it works that often?

I figured that if he had something with more sd value than AK, he wouldn't have bet


VzLOM
Joined: 23.12.2007

60% is not what u wanted when u r bluffing.
And btw he could even rarely call AK while your range is sooo polarised.


Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

I'd bet/fold on the flop because most people are afraid of TT-QQ and just c/f.
He could even be scared just because the pot is big and he only has A high.

As played the riverraise is ok, but you should definitely raise smaller.
He is not going to call AK if you make it $95 anyway.
So only by that the EV of raising to $95 is higher than the EV of shoving.