[Closed] NL100 T9s flush on double paired board

Not too sure because you didn't give stats on villian so can't say too much.

SB probably has 7X suited connector type of hand or 88-TT. I doubt he has 44-66 because he would fold to the raise on the turn in my opinion.

Probable hands
2 combos of 67s
2 combos of 87s
6 combos of 88
6 combos of 99
6 combos of TT

Hands he might have
6 combos of 67o (2 combos)
6 combos of 87o (2 combos)
Some higher diamond flush (let's give this 2 combos)
2 combos of A3s

We beat 18 combos out of 30 combos, that's 60%. I think this isn't really an accurate calculation once again due to lack of information.

I think he is more likely to have you beat here, especially when he lead the river. But you are getting 3-to-1, and perhaps if you think he has 88-TT often enough which I suspect he would have more than 25% of the time, you can call.

i think its a call. He could have midp and even some worst flushes. We have odds.

Originally posted by mbml
Not too sure because you didn't give stats on villian so can't say too much.

SB probably has 7X suited connector type of hand or 88-TT. I doubt he has 44-66 because he would fold to the raise on the turn in my opinion.

Probable hands
2 combos of 67s
2 combos of 87s
6 combos of 88
6 combos of 99
6 combos of TT

Hands he might have
6 combos of 67o (2 combos)
6 combos of 87o (2 combos)
Some higher diamond flush (let's give this 2 combos)
2 combos of A3s

We beat 18 combos out of 30 combos, that's 60%. I think this isn't really an accurate calculation once again due to lack of information.

I think he is more likely to have you beat here, especially when he lead the river. But you are getting 3-to-1, and perhaps if you think he has 88-TT often enough which I suspect he would have more than 25% of the time, you can call.

I think he has a boat wayyyyyyyyyyyy more often. I think he has it 80% of the time, he has 10% of the time a higher flush and 10% of the time maybe an overpair ( likely to be 0% )

This is easy fold for me. Really a snap fold.

I had only 16 hands on him, so no stats.

Thanks everyone for the input. I called mostly because his bet was just 1/2 pot, I thought he would be value betting more with fh, especially with my turn raise. However, higher flush was very likely as well. I agree with mbml that TT-88 is likely, not sure how much tho. I will post the results after hand judge posts, if anyone's interested.

this is certainly not a snapfold and i think you are making too many assumptions about villian

Of course I probably gave him too many combos of 88-TT, but I didn't take into account worse flushes. Let me revise my analysis and be more pessimistic

Probable hands
2 combos of 67s
2 combos of 87s
2 combos of 57s (1 combo)
2 combos of
6 combos of 88 (2 combo)
6 combos of 99 (2 combo)
6 combos of TT (2 combo)

Hands he might have
6 combos of 67o (2 combos)
6 combos of 87o (2 combos)
Some higher diamond flush (2 combos)
2 combos of A3s
2 combos of 45s and 56s (1 combo)
we have 7 winning combos out of 20, even if we discount certain hands even further, we probably can give ourselves 5 winning combos (which meets the 25% potodds requirement)

how about:

Probable hands
2 combos of 67s
2 combos of 87s
2 combos of 57s (1 combo)
6 combos of 88 (2 combo)
6 combos of 99 (2 combo) A combined combo total of 2.
6 combos of TT (2 combo)

Hands he might have
6 combos of 67o (2 combos)
6 combos of 87o (2 combos)
Some higher diamond flush (2 combos)
2 combos of A3s
2 combos of 45s and 56s

Other hands:

1 combo of 77
1 combo of 33
2 combo's of 79s
1 combo of 7Ts
1 combo of 74s
one combined combo of 34s and 35s

result: -ev call

Don't forget he's betting out into 4 players, calls a raise out of position and then donks the river. To me that looks quite strong to be honest, and I don't see a measly overpair doing that very often ... of course, we have yet to determine what his blockbet amount is, but 1/2 pot is too often a valuebet.

Given all the combo's that beat you, a call is never profitable...
I'd almost never call this, I'd probably never even consider it without stats on the guy.

I'd bet the flop. There's a decent chance you take it down right away and even if someone calls you a) have a lot of outs (maybe even your overcard outs are good sometimes against some small PPs).

As played i agree with SonicXT and HannesNL:
His move is extremely strong given that he bet/calls on the turn and donks the river.
Imo the most likely hand to do that is a 3x hand of some kind or a good flush that is either scared of a full house or doesn't want to scare away worse flushes.

But once he bets the river i think he never has a worse flush and he almost never has a pocket pair that's not a full house.

Worse flushes usually c/c in this spot and and 7x is (despite the course of the hand) still a part of his range (could overcall pre with some kind of big :diamond:7x type hand or some connector and overplayed it on the turn).

Pocket pairs also usually check/fold or check/call in this spot at best.