Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
Hero ($124)
BB ($101)
UTG ($69.40)
UTG+1 ($105)
CO ($100)
BTN ($100)
Dealt to Hero A♠ A♦
UTG raises to $3, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $2.50, fold
FLOP ($7) 4♠ 4♣ 3♣
Hero checks, UTG bets $5, Hero raises to $14, UTG calls $9
TURN ($35) 4♠ 4♣ 3♣ 6♦
Hero bets $19, UTG calls $19
RIVER ($73) 4♠ 4♣ 3♣ 6♦ 9♦
Hero bets $40, UTG calls $33.40 (AI)
this hand generated some discussion with my sweat partner. I justified my call out of position by arguing that villain is most likely a fish based on stack size and stats (50/20, AF 0.7, after 10 hands). On this basis our positional disadvantage is made up for by our card advantage and Probable skill advantage. There may be some hands, for example A9o, which villain can fold to a 3bet pf but which he may not b be able to get away from when he hits top pair on 9xx and so I felt my call out of position against this specific opponent had a higher EV than 3betting pf. Furthermore, I don't see the need to balance against this kind of opponent.
is this rationale reasonable?
Thanks