Originally posted by Wurble
I think there is just a misunderstanding here - I fully understand what you're saying.. Each situation is independant of all others so yeah, for sure you can never tell what is going to happen from one time to the next.Surely though, the more hands you play, the closer to the true percentage each situation will become? If not then I'm giving up lol
This all I meant when I said it would swing the other way, the percentages would balance out and the more hands you play, the more likely it is that your 'true' edge will become clear...
It gets closer in terms of percentage but you have to remember that "dice have no memory". Once you have had the unlucky stretch to get you $700 under EV your expectation is to remain $700 under EV. While you may have a run of luck in the future that brings you back it is still an upswing and you have no more chance of this happening than another downswing. You would not expect to ever actually reach that EV once you go below it.
Your BB/100 will eventually reach EV but only because that $700 is no longer statistically significant in comparison with the amount you have won.