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So much for variance!

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Originally posted by MikeyH

Originally posted by Bliausmas

My point is that it doesn't matter which hand you'll get dealt 8 times in a row, trash or AA, but the fact that you were holding the two very same cards in your pocket for 8 hands - that's cool.

The novelty wears off eventually for most hands. It's always good to see unlikely streaks of monsters though. If you were raising pocket aces for the 8th time in a row a lot of people would tend to think that you were getting a bit out of line and give you some action.

However, being dealt strong hands in which you would raise several times in a row is a far different situation in which you get dealt weak hands and fold several times in a row. Folding 8 times in a row, for me, is not that uncommon. Such actions as a result of being dealt jack five offsuit 8 times in a row or any other trash 8 times in a row should not affect my opponents actions significantly. Therefore my general strategy or expected value should not change either. It is a different case for strong hands. My actions would change drastically from what my opponents would expect if I were to be dealt pocket aces 8 times in a row. I expect that they would tend to think that I am getting a bit over confident and trying to bully the table. This would be a far more likely scenario in their minds than a rare streak of pocket aces 8 times in a row. Their actions would likely change and they would make moves with more marginal hands expecting them to have a positive expected value against me. Therefore for such streaks of good cards we should expect that the action we recieve for the nth raise in a row will rise with some relation to n.

Based on such an idea it is more relevant to the game to get a streak of monsters than to get a streak of trash. We could expect a higher profit over a session in which we get a streak of monsters over several hands than we would get if we were to be dealt the exact same cards distributed more evenly in another session.

I have started a new thread if anyone wishes to discuss this specific example.

The relevance of variance

OK, I'm moving to new thread :P


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Gerovit
Joined: 16.01.2011

First you should learn about manners and then about statistics because in both you are making terrible mistakes and it's good decision to move to new thread.


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What are you even talking about? First you appear and start bullshitting about probabilities of event A happening 1 time, and event A happening n times in a row, being equal, and now you suggest to learn some manner? Gtfo troll.


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pogodon
Joined: 23.07.2010

i read over this and dont see how he has had bad manners anywere except after you said he had bad manners witch is understandable


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Gerovit
Joined: 16.01.2011

Originally posted by pogodon
i read over this and dont see how he has had bad manners anywere except after you said he had bad manners witch is understandable

In opinion this sentence is insulting ?(
"Yeah, I believe you're a genius but you wrote pure nonsense (if you're not trolling of course Zunge raus )."

Anyway to simplify things:
If you play roulette and get red 10 times in a row do you have more chance of hitting black 11th? Think about it.

Anyway maybe i'm wrong but at least i'm not frustrated little man that offendes people with different opinions


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Originally posted by milanandonov

Originally posted by pogodon
i read over this and dont see how he has had bad manners anywere except after you said he had bad manners witch is understandable

In opinion this sentence is insulting ?(
"Yeah, I believe you're a genius but you wrote pure nonsense (if you're not trolling of course Zunge raus )."

Anyway to simplify things:
If you play roulette and get red 10 times in a row do you have more chance of hitting black 11th? Think about it.

Anyway maybe i'm wrong but at least i'm not frustrated little man that offendes people with different opinions

Excuse me, dear sir, but do you think we are mathematically oblivious? Of course you get the same chance of hitting black for 11th time in a row AFTER you have ALREADY hit black 10 times. There's no discussion about that. But were we even talking about that? No, we were talking about possibilities of hitting certain streaks of cards BEFORE they happen.
And I'm not offending your opinion, because it's not history or polithics, it's math - there are no opinions, just facts, and they are either correct or incorrect :) I'm sorry for my rude last post, but a couple of your last posts really didn't make sense. What you said first was basically that probabilities of flipping a coin heads 1 time, and heads 100 times in a row, are the same. Well I believe you didn't mean that, you wanted to state some correct facts, but again - why talk about something that does not belong in this topic, especially in that "educational way"? It's really annoying and certainly looks like trolling.


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ever get 44, 3 times in a row. 2 of them hit triple.


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tokyoaces
Joined: 01.04.2009

You hole cards are an independent event. Getting J5o a second time is in no way influenced by the first occurrence.

Educate thyself:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_%28probability_theory%29


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Originally posted by tokyoaces
You hole cards are an independent event. Getting J5o a second time is in no way influenced by the first occurrence.

Educate thyself:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_%28probability_theory%29

No, you're wrong. It is influenced.


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tokyoaces
Joined: 01.04.2009

Originally posted by Bliausmas
No, you're wrong. It is influenced.

Nope, sorry. Each hand of poker is an independent event. You cannot wish this fact away by your ignorance.


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Originally posted by tokyoaces

Originally posted by Bliausmas
No, you're wrong. It is influenced.

Nope, sorry. Each hand of poker is an independent event. You cannot wish this fact away by your ignorance.

No way, bro. U jelly.


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Originally posted by Bliausmas

Originally posted by tokyoaces

Originally posted by Bliausmas
No, you're wrong. It is influenced.

Nope, sorry. Each hand of poker is an independent event. You cannot wish this fact away by your ignorance.

No way, bro. U jelly.

Think you're wrong here Bliausmas. Getting J5 the hand before does not affect the chance of getting J5 again in the next hand. The two events are independent of one another, i.e think of the cards being replaced in the deck after each hand and not left out.

To simplify, say there are only 100 different hands and each hand had equal probability of occuring. Two such hands are A2 and J5. Probability of J5 twice in a row is 1/100 * 1/100 = 1/10000. Probability of A2 then J5 is also 1/100 * 1/100 = 10000. Getting J5 specifically twice is no less unlikely than any two hands next to one another.

It seems to be influenced because the same hand 5 times sounds crazy but the maths is the same for any 5 specified hands in a row. However, noone ever says or thinks "omg wtf i just got As5d, Kd2c, 4h5h, 6d,Ah, and 3dJs consecutively!! What are the chances of that?!"

Indeed the chances of those specific 5 hands in a row is equal to getting Jh5d 5 times in a row. I'm no math expert but it seems correct to me! If any math expert could correct me then that would be great. :)


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Well actually I am studying math, and have been interested in statistics for past 10 years, but yeah guys, please educate me more, it's never enough :f_biggrin:
Also I love it when your urge to respond and teach someone (math or good manner) is bigger than ability to read what is already written. Like when I write "of course statement A is correct" and the next post is "you're wrong, statement A is correct, here's a link, educate yoursef".


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