[Closed] 200$ under EV in 7k hands !

Originally posted by drbloody

Originally posted by TiciBoy

It depends exactly how EV is calculated (I don't know, so I can't say who is right here)... But I understand what is Jan trying to tell you. Your EV in a 70/30 flip is not a whole stack, but 70% of the stack in the long run... If you win (just an example number) 100 such 70/30 flips in a row, you will be actually 30% over your EV. Because you were not expected to winn all 100 flips, but only 70. At least that's what I understand he was tryying to tell you.

The problem is that all in EV is not calculated that way, neither by PT3 nor by HEM. IE: if you are the underdog when going all in and win you will go above ev, the same goes for the contrary - if you were a favorite and loose you go below the corresponding amount.

All that meaning that EV calculation by the software we use is seriously flawed...

What are you talking about sir?=)

If you go allin AA vs KK and you win, you go above EV.
Every time you go all in with less than 100% equity and you win, you go above EV.
Doesnt matter if you are underdog or its a flip or ur a favourite.
In both HEM and PT3.

Originally posted by drbloody

Originally posted by Jan217
Im sorry but you have this entirely wrong! EV is EV and doesnt care which side of a domination your on. A good player doesnt go above EV over a large sample by sucking out a lot, they go above EV by not getting sucked out on as much as they 'deserve'. If you win a bunch of 70/30 flips in a row, your still gona be a ton above EV despite only 'playing well'. Or if you win 5 AA vs KK all in preflop in a row, thats a whole buyin above EV! But you certainly never made any bad plays going all in preflop with AA...

Hope that clears things up...

cheers,

Jan

Nothing was unclear to me ♠_confused: !? What are you trying to clear up ?

Good players are doomed running below EV and should accept that... just think of it twice!!

What are you talking about !?!?!? "EV doesn't care" !? like if "EV" was an entity ? can EV think, maybe EV even has a central nervous system ♠_evil:
I am sorry m8 but I fail to see what are you trying to clear up or talking about!?
If you win a 70/30 flip in your favor u're not gonna run above ev u'll be exactly at it, no matter how many times you do! You can't go above EV with AA vs KK, only below. Why so many ppl around just pollute these forums trying to be smartasses without having basic idea what they're talking about !!

I'm sorry but you have this entirely wrong! Jan!

Its kinda a fail to insult someone while being completely wrong
If you win a 70/30 situation of course you will run above ev

Running above or below EV doesnt have to do anything with being good player or bad player..

Seriously.. unless you are trolling in kinda weird way..

Originally posted by drbloody
If you win a 70/30 flip in your favor u're not gonna run above ev u'll be exactly at it, no matter how many times you do! You can't go above EV with AA vs KK, only below.

No idea if you are trolling, but this is obviously incorrect.

As said by previous posters any time you win AA vs KK you've actually "gotten lucky", because you won the entire pot when mathematically you are only entitled to your equity share in that pot over the long haul.

luizsilveira has the right idea, but the maths is incorrect I believe.

EV can be calculated as

(Amount you can win * %chance of winning) - (Amount you can lose * %chance of losing)

So assuming you get in as an 80% favourite for $2, substitute in the numbers... EDIT: And by this I mean a $4 HU pot.

($2 * 0.8) - ($2 * 0.2)
$1.60 - $0.40

EV = $1.20

I am reasonably sure this is also how HEM and PT3 calculate allin-EV but of course, I could be mistaken.

Originally posted by JuiceQuadre
♦

Its kinda a fail to insult someone while being completely wrong
If you win a 70/30 situation of course you will run above ev

Running above or below EV doesnt have to do anything with being good player or bad player..

Seriously.. unless you are trolling in kinda weird way..

I didn't mean to insult anyone, and my apologies if someone felt that way. I was talking strictly about how HEM and PT3 work!
To be honest this bloody software flaw got me pretty much confused as well!!!

THE one thing I KNOW for SURE is that PT3/HEM neither know your equity when calculating! I have observed the line behavior ! The only thing that PT3 calculates is whether you were ahead or behind in a allin situation, if you win a 10$ pot while behind you will go 10$ above the all in EV line and vice versa!

Just observe the line...

If I go down 5 buy ins I usually take a break from poker for a few days just to clear my head. That usually helps. Some of you may laugh at this but it works for me, so yeah.

Originally posted by drbloody

Nothing was unclear to me ♠_confused: !? What are you trying to clear up ?

Good players are doomed running below EV and should accept that... just think of it twice!!

What are you talking about !?!?!? "EV doesn't care" !? like if "EV" was an entity ? can EV think, maybe EV even has a central nervous system ♠_evil:
I am sorry m8 but I fail to see what are you trying to clear up or talking about!?
If you win a 70/30 flip in your favor u're not gonna run above ev u'll be exactly at it, no matter how many times you do! You can't go above EV with AA vs KK, only below. Why so many ppl around just pollute these forums trying to be smartasses without having basic idea what they're talking about !!

I'm sorry but you have this entirely wrong! Jan!

My apologies to Jan, I was way out of line and wrong!! I reacted harsh and out of some other frustrations as well.
The way the software works is nonsense and got me totally confused about this. I was just thinking the same way software calculates.

Sorry for for being an ass'ole m8.

all the best

b

im $1500 below EV this month stop complaining about being $200 below EV

Originally posted by JazBenz
If I go down 5 buy ins I usually take a break from poker for a few days just to clear my head. That usually helps. Some of you may laugh at this but it works for me, so yeah.

It's called a stoploss. But most people could probably get back to grinding the next day.

Originally posted by w34z3l

luizsilveira has the right idea, but the maths is incorrect I believe.

EV can be calculated as

(Amount you can win * %chance of winning) - (Amount you can lose * %chance of losing)

So assuming you get in as an 80% favourite for $2, substitute in the numbers...

($2 * 0.8) - ($2 * 0.2)
$1.60 - $0.40

EV = $1.20

I am reasonably sure this is also how HEM and PT3 calculate allin-EV but of course, I could be mistaken.

Ahn... I'm not exactly a math genious so I was wrong indeed. But now I'm confused:

If you run 10x as an 80% favorite for a heads up $2 pot. You'll win 8 times, meaning you've made $8 profit on those; you will lose 2 times, meaning you lost the $2 you've put.

So... in the end of the 10 hands, you should expect to make a net of $6 profit, or $0.60 per hand.

Thus, if you go AI with AA vs. KK your EV should go up $0.60. Your winnings, on the other hand, will go either $1 up (0.4 above EV) or $1 down (1.6 below EV).

Am I missing something?

Originally posted by luizsilveira

Ahn... I'm not exactly a math genious so I was wrong indeed. But now I'm confused:

If you run 10x as an 80% favorite for a heads up $2 pot. You'll win 8 times, meaning you've made $8 profit on those; you will lose 2 times, meaning you lost the $2 you've put.

So... in the end of the 10 hands, you should expect to make a net of $6 profit, or $0.60 per hand.

Thus, if you go AI with AA vs. KK your EV should go up $0.60. Your winnings, on the other hand, will go either $1 up (0.4 above EV) or $1 down (1.6 below EV).

Am I missing something?

The example I gave was describing a $4 pot, where each player put in $2.

You have calculated a $2 pot where each player puts in $1.

The maths here is correct, and half the result I reached, exactly as we would expect when the potsize is halved.

EDIT: In fact, looking back over the thread, perhaps I was not clear that by "all-in for $2" I actually meant a $4 pot. So my bad there.

@drbloody

Can you demonstrate with a specific hand example how PT3/HEM does not calculate allin-ev correctly? i.e not as described above in luizsilveiras calculation?

Oh, and sorry about the downswing, hang in there.

Where is the fire? It's only 8 BI

T.

Can you demonstrate with a specific hand example how PT3/HEM does not calculate allin-ev correctly?

I posted this in my blog sometime ago.. I think it explains pretty well why HEM is flawed. It gets even worse for sng/tournaments since chips won or lost are not always of equal worth.

Why it's worse in sng/tournaments.

I played a hand today that shows exactly why the HEM EV line is very flawed.
preflop: i have 86% to win and 14% to lose
flop: i have 85% to win.
turn: 23% chance to win.

Now cause i put the money in behind almost 4 to 1 i'm $14 above EV in that hand ($11 buyin). Which obviously does not make sense. I'm crushing him preflop. i hit a good flop and get extremly unlucky on the turn. i usually reraise more then only to 630 but it wouldn't have mattered anyway. i would absolutely never fold this turn vs this player and he made a terrible call on the flop. i mean even if he hits his 6 or 7 it's very likely he's beat. Replay a hand like this a 100 times i expect to be ahead probably 99 times. Players would do this with Ax hands, two pair and lower sets at these stakes. So in reality i should only be about $2-3 over EV. but instead it shows im above EV more then a whole buying while i didn't get lucky at all.

No Limit Holdem Tournament
PokerStars
2 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
$10.50+$0.50

Stacks:
Hero (1,305)
BB (1,695)

Blinds: 15/30

Pre-Flop: (45, 2 players) Hero is SB 8 8
Hero raises to 60, BB calls 30

Flop: A 4 8 (120, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 75, BB calls 75

Turn: 5 (270, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 165, BB raises to 330, Hero raises to 630, BB goes all-in 1,560, Hero goes all-in 540

River: A (3,000, 2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: 3,000
Hero shows a full house, Eights full of Aces
8 8
BB shows a straight, Four to Eight
6 7

Hero wins 2,610 (net +1,305)

BB collects 390 (net -1,305)

Originally posted by Hahaownedlolz

I posted this in my blog sometime ago.. I think it explains pretty well why HEM is flawed.

This I am aware of. It doesn't actually demonstrate that allin-ev is flawed however.

What it DOES demonstrate is that the ev line is not an accurate representation of your ev versus someone's range. In other words, if you make G-bucks, the ev-line won't reflect that, because it doesn't claim to represent your actual expected value merely your all-in ev.

I don't think it's possible to ever code a system which can record your actual ev in certain spots since this would involve estimations of fold equity and also estimations regarding villains' range.

The implication in this thread seemed to be that all-in ev wasn't being calculated correctly vs villains exact holdings, which I tentatively dispute.

However, I do take your point. In your case you still managed to get most of the money in bad. But supposing you get 99% in good, and then shove 1% bad. That's obviously +EV but since the 1% went in with you drawing dead I assume HEM claims your EV to be negative.

Originally posted by Hahaownedlolz

So in reality i should only be about $2-3 over EV. but instead it shows im above EV more then a whole buying while i didn't get lucky at all.

No Limit Holdem Tournament
PokerStars
2 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
$10.50+$0.50

Stacks:
Hero (1,305)
BB (1,695)

Blinds: 15/30

Pre-Flop: (45, 2 players) Hero is SB 8 8
Hero raises to 60, BB calls 30

Flop: A 4 8 (120, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 75, BB calls 75

Turn: 5 (270, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 165, BB raises to 330, Hero raises to 630, BB goes all-in 1,560, Hero goes all-in 540

River: A (3,000, 2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: 3,000
Hero shows a full house, Eights full of Aces
8 8
BB shows a straight, Four to Eight
6 7

Hero wins 2,610 (net +1,305)

BB collects 390 (net -1,305)

My opinion? You got your money in bad and you god quite lucky. And you should be waaay up EV in that case.

As posted before, the software can only calculate on the actual hands, not ranges you put villains in.

If a maniac is raising 60% of pots, you get KK and decide to take a stance so 3bet-shove, and he calls with AA, then you hit a K, you ARE way above EV. I doesn't matter if it was a good play or not (in that case it might have been), but the fact is you put your money behind and got lucky.

Originally posted by w34z3l

Originally posted by Hahaownedlolz

I posted this in my blog sometime ago.. I think it explains pretty well why HEM is flawed.

This I am aware of. It doesn't actually demonstrate that allin-ev is flawed however.

What it DOES demonstrate is that the ev line is not an accurate representation of your ev versus someone's range. In other words, if you make G-bucks, the ev-line won't reflect that, because it doesn't claim to represent your actual expected value merely your all-in ev.

I don't think it's possible to ever code a system which can record your actual ev in certain spots since this would involve estimations of fold equity and also estimations regarding villains' range.

The implication in this thread seemed to be that all-in ev wasn't being calculated correctly vs villains exact holdings, which I tentatively dispute.

However, I do take your point. In your case you still managed to get most of the money in bad. But supposing you get 99% in good, and then shove 1% bad. That's obviously +EV but since the 1% went in with you drawing dead I assume HEM claims your EV to be negative.

+1.

Pls note that we are talking about all-in EV here. Actuall EV cant be calculated by any program.