[Closed] OESD vs. A-pair

mmh, no, you were quite far from having odds to call here. You had about 31% chance to win this, and your pot odds are not 1:2, but 1:1.6, so it was not a good call.

ok, so i should just call or not call according to the odds i get?
don't i get some better odds, because he was shortstacked and forced to make a move sooner or later?

Originally posted by cobby
ok, so i should just call or not call according to the odds i get?
don't i get some better odds, because he was shortstacked and forced to make a move sooner or later?

nope, you only had odds against nothing or 5x, because then hitting 7 or 8 would also win. But i think you can believe him for having at least a pair that is higher then your seven.

You should call according to odds, and not according to your opponents stack size. Actually, you should've been more careful raising into a ss with a marginal hand like that. If you want to raise here, you should've gone all in preflop, to maximize folding equity, but i would just fold this and wait for a better spot. At this stage of the tourney high cards>low cards, and suited connectors are absolutely rubbish.

yeah you may be right. But i disagree playing these hands. Because i still had more than 20x BB. Or should i ONLY (under no other circumstances) play those low suited connectors in multiway pots?
Greets

Originally posted by cobby
yeah you may be right. But i disagree playing these hands. Because i still had more than 20x BB. Or should i ONLY (under no other circumstances) those low suited connectors in multiway pots?
Greets

no, you shouldn't play them at all, regardless of your stacksize. I'll explain it:

There is a 4% chance to hit 2 pair on the flop, with any two cards (not pocketpairs),

There is a 1.5% chance to hit 3OAK on the flop, with any two cards.

At this stage, with stacksize 20bb, 3oak or 2pair = all in.

There is a 2% chance to hit either a straight or a flush on the flop, with suited connectors. Your opponents won't let you draw if they hit something, so you can assume that 4-flushes and oesd's are pretty worthless at this stage. With those draws you are most likely behind, and want to call for implied odds, which you can hardly do with these high blind levels.

So suited connectors are nice at the start, but later on they only have a 2% edge over, let's say, 72 off suit. That doesn't sound very nice, does it?

67s has 47% against A2o if you go all in preflop. So it's a great hand to go all in with if you are short stacked and on the sb, or sometimes even button.

Why shouldn't you look at your own stacksize? Because it's the opponent's stack size that matters. Thereby, even with 20bb you don't have the odds to even call here. You need about 60-80bb to call preflop with suited connectors. You simply don't get implied odds otherwise.

It's the mistake i've seen the most on tournaments, people who keep calling, despite the fact that the blinds get higher. Tournaments are dynamic, and tournament's SHC's chance every time the blind level changes!

Good luck, and i hope i helped.

hey, that's pretty thorough!
I'll print it out and stick to my screen
Thanks ma'am!

Dont't minraise pre, fold this pre and it is a clear fold on the flop.
SRY to say it, but too call here is a pure waste of money.

normally i won't minraise, but i saw them folding a lot of times on minraises. So if sb has a decent hand he would have played it also with 3xBB raise.

I wouldn't bet less than 3BB, because everybody does that, I would think about betting more, when that is necessary at the table.

it's so funny if they miniraise, and you can call for 2-pair-value. You do that with cards of which you are 95% sure that they are both live, and you can stack them if you hit 2 pair or trips.

I like to read your tips helemaalnicks. You seem to know very well your poker mathematics. Keep up the great posting ♦

Originally posted by helemaalnicks
it's so funny if they miniraise, and you can call for 2-pair-value. You do that with cards of which you are 95% sure that they are both live, and you can stack them if you hit 2 pair or trips.

SRY to say that, but that is not true. You don't know if the betting is over, when you call here. you will very often invest more than just the preflop call with your cards, when you hit a draw. You won't be able to play your hand +EV in a HU pot, because you aren't the aggressor and in a multiway pot you will make the second best hand sometimes (vs good players more often than you may think now). And how should you decide your cars are live? Even for 95% that would mean you play pure trash, and even when you play 82o you can't be sure you aren't up against A8s. There is a reason, why everybody tells you to play nitty, that reason is simply we may gain some Chip EV when we play loose in the early levels, but we will have to play almost perfect, if we don't do that we will pay for the loose style. And even if we get some chips, our $EV doesn't grow in the same manner, because when we take one play, lets say we flip with QQ vs AK in the first hand, this play is Chip EV roughly +-0 but it is clearly -$EV, because for all the other players it doesn't matter who looses in this their equity goes up:
For example in a 11$ SNG everybody has the equity of 10$:
Player 1
2000.000000 0.1000 0.1000 0.1000 $10.00
Player 2
2000.000000 0.1000 0.1000 0.1000 $10.00
...

When you flip now:

Player 1
0.000000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00
Player 2
4000.000000 0.2000 0.1778 0.1556 $18.44
Player 3
2000.000000 0.1000 0.1028 0.1056 $10.19
... Other players have the same equity as Player 3.

So what does this tell us?
When we win our Hand we gain 8,44$, but when we loose we loose 10$.
So this flip is 100% -EV.
Well I hope you see why playing with marginal hands has the same effect on your $EV.

so you fold to a miniraise when the blinds are 20 and your hand is shit? I wasn't talkin about this situation, i was talkin in genereral. Is this not done in s&g's?