[Closed] HEM all-in EV line

Originally posted by w34z3l

Originally posted by Albeback
I don't understand why you LOL at MrMardyBum since you are saying the same thing.

Perhaps. But technically, since we are discussing the HEM allin-ev line it probably makes a lot more sense to refer to your ev as $-.2 since this is how it would be calculated by HEM. Don't you agree?

Suggesting your EV is $4.80 may be indicative of a common misunderstanding in how EV is calculated.

One forgets you can lose money in any given situation and therefore expect EV to exist somewhere on the scale $0 to $10. Realistically if you are allin preflop, it makes far more sense to consider your EV on a scale between $-5 and $5 in the given example. This is how HEM does it, and how it would be calculated if one was asked to calculate the EV of a preflop allin.

Naturally it depends on your point of reference, and perhaps MrMardyBum realises this; he just didn't choose the most logical reference point given the context of this thread, so one is left to wonder if he really has a clue what he is talking about.

Perhaps he was just trying to communicate with Bennisboy which is where the issue began

Originally posted by bennisboy
Say there is $1 in the pot, and you are 75% favourite, well then, it counts in the EV graph as though you won 75c, regardless of whether you got the $1 or $0.

I'm sure someone is misunderstanding something...somehow......notice how you can't lose money in this example. Easy game, huh?

The common misconception is that EV = (amountyoucan win * %chanceyouwin)

The correct definition of EV =
(Amount you can win * %chanceyouwin) - (amount you can lose * %chanceyoulose)

That is the same actually with how the others were calculating. Just that for them amount you can win is pot and for you is your stack. In the end is the same.

Actually what MrMardyBlum is saying is taken from the way it appears in HEM I think. And in HEM EV is calculated as like this as far as I understood:

Lets say again it is AK vs QQ 48/52 for 5$ each. In HEM if you have AK you will have in the $EV adjusted column when you win -5.2$ and when you lose +4.8$. And that is how the graph will go.

Originally posted by belayd
If the all in EV stat is so useless, why is it available on HEM?

It is not useless. It is just not the absolute definition of running good or bad. It show an approximation of it cause it does not accounts for coolers/setups and other stuff like if the pot is 100$ on the flop and you are ahead and the other guy sucks out on the turn and pushes for 2$ you are obv committed to call you will appear as you got it in bad although in reality you got it in good on the flop basically.

cu double post :<

mind = blown by some explanations in this thread

It is useful if you understand it fully, and it isn't complicated like the guy who claims you need a college degree in statistics to understand (one of the craziest claims I've ever seen!). I think it is likely to tilt people if they dont get to grips with the fact its only taking into consideratio nthe moment cards are flipped over, setups like KK against AA or set over set on the flop where you are genuinely unlucky are not considered therefore the all-in EV line is not the definitive line on whether you are running good or bad!

Originally posted by MrMardyBum
How can an all in EV graph calculate EV when it doesn't know your opponents cards ?

If they calculate all hands(inc. non All-in hands) then All-in EV is G-Bucks not Sklansky Dollars. G-Bucks uses range in its calculation while Sklansky Dollars does not. So it still makes sense that All-in EV applies to all hands.

Originally posted by cpers

Originally posted by MrMardyBum
How can an all in EV graph calculate EV when it doesn't know your opponents cards ?

If they calculate all hands(inc. non All-in hands) then All-in EV is G-Bucks not Sklansky Dollars. G-Bucks uses range in its calculation while Sklansky Dollars does not. So it still makes sense that All-in EV applies to all hands.

HEM is not using ranges. EV line is only for allin situations.

Well I'm just saying that it's possible to calculate it for all hands.
Since in hem's graphic it includes all hands. I'm not saying that this is true.
Why don't you check G-bucks it similar to what you're saying but with a range.

@Albeback: It seems your assumption is correct.

I got this from hem's sites.

Some important things to note about EV:

All-in EV is only calculated based on hands which were all in before the river since equity on the river will always be 0% or 100%. Hence, the river is irrelevant.

If you get 95% of your stack in on the turn and the final 5% in on the river, then it takes your equity on the street you got all in on. We will be introducing another stat at a later date which will try to take into consideration your equity based across all streets which should give a better representation.

Note: EV is calculated at the point in which everyone is all-in. Calculating it any other way would be biased since we don't know what hands people might have folded.

Example: You have JJ VS two other players with larger stacks with AK and QQ. You get all in, the other players call. Flop is AK5 and QQ folds, is your pre-flop EV 55% (pair VS AK) or 20% (JJ VS QQ and AK)? We can't know because we don't know what people fold.

It's ok if you are just saying the same thing in a different way. I just wasn't sure, as I explain by listing the common misconception of EV.

I feel $.-20 is the most logical way to look at the EV of that spot. It has a meaning - i.e the negative sign indicates the overall transaction has been a negative one, and therefore is a more complete summary of the hand without further information such as the preflop stacks.

As I said in my first post I was just clarifying the information, don't want to hijack the thread.

Originally posted by cpers
If you get 95% of your stack in on the turn and the final 5% in on the river, then it takes your equity on the street you got all in on. We will be introducing another stat at a later date which will try to take into consideration your equity based across all streets which should give a better representation.

They have stated repeatedly that they will never add such a stat and have even given detailed reasons why it would be even more misleading that all-in EV is.

Originally posted by Roy on HEM's User Voice Site
We're probably not going to do this since it is statistically misleading. Check http://forums.holdemmanager.com/showthread.php?t=16665&page=7 for TristanBleu's posts. He does a good job explaining why it is not valid and his views match ours. For those of you that still want this you can look in that same thread for an addon that does this.

They sold you on all-in EV but they don't want to spend more money to try and fix it. Awesome! ♠_biggrin:

Originally posted by belayd
If the all in EV stat is so useless, why is it available on HEM?

cause don't you love to know how much money you lost to bad beats?

it also shows a better representation over medium sized samples esp in high variance games like for example superturbos.

Originally posted by Albeback

Actually what MrMardyBlum is saying is taken from the way it appears in HEM I think. And in HEM EV is calculated as like this as far as I understood:

Lets say again it is AK vs QQ 48/52 for 5$ each. In HEM if you have AK you will have in the $EV adjusted column when you win -5.2$ and when you lose +4.8$. And that is how the graph will go.

If you win a 48/52 for $5 your allin-ev will go down 20 cents. Your actual earnings will go up 5. That's the whole point!

i.e What MrMardyBum is saying is not how it appears in HEM.....

You can argue semantics, but it is far less logical to consider the EV from the flop onwards (what mrmardybum and others are doing). You consider a smaller pool of events and therefore the resultant calculation is less useful.

This method runs into difficulty in more complex calculations and is not the standard way of calculating EV.

Right, I'm gonna shut up about it now and let you guys calculate EV however the hell you like. ♦

Originally posted by MrMardyBum

Originally posted by bennisboy
It doesn't just refer to all in, it's how much of the pot you were involved in that you should 'expect' to win. Say there is $1 in the pot, and you are 75% favourite, well then, it counts in the EV graph as though you won 75c, regardless of whether you got the $1 or $0.

I'm pretty sure if you're hand finished on the turn, it takes the % you were to win the hand if it went to showdown, and uses that for the EV, in other words, it is how much you could 'expect' to win from all the pots you were involved in, it doesn't just look at time where you went all-in.

The only thing it is really useful for is knowing whether you have been making + or -EV decisions

Sorry to tell you this but you are wrong - All In EV shows you what you are expected to win when the cards are flipped over at the moment of being all in.

If you have Quads for example At the time the cards are flipped and your opponent has 22 you are expected to win 100% of that pot, if there is no backdoor straight flush on the board.

If you and a villain go all in Pre flop AK vs QQ then you are expected to win 48% of the time and therefore 48% of that pot is added to your all in EV. If the pot is $10 (for ease) then you are expected to win $4.80.

I said you are expected to win $4.80 as a totally random and easy example to bennisboy who (as stated above) said that AI EV is calculated when the cards are not flipped. So all you nit pickers ... Saying it's -20c or w/e tell me how that is different? We expect to win $4,80 for investing $5. Or yes the way you said it -20c - Exactly the fucking same... Jesus Christ.

Our Estimated value all in preflop AK vs QQ in a $10 pot is $4.80 from the $5 we invested ... Still $4.80 even if you say it's -20c. And your EV line on your graph would still show the same deficit by not following the trend of your profit/loss line. Plus, your hand as displayed in the HEM window would read EV $ Diff $4.80. AS OUR EXPECTED VALUE IS $4.80!!!!!

In other words our profit/loss line would drop $5 but our EV line would only drop 20c. Creating (guess what?!) $4.80 difference... Surprise, surprise!

I have no example me holding AK so I used my QQ vs another player with AK to illustrate. In this case as I was holding the QQ my EV went up slightly, but if I was holding the AK it would have dropped by the same amount.

I didn't give a long explanation because I thought in a forum full of 'poker minds' the rest of the explanation would be COMMON SENSE!

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($3.95)
BB ($10.52)
Hero ($10)
UTG+1 ($9.70)
UTG+2 ($3.85)
MP1 ($9.03)
MP2 ($10.21)
CO ($4.20)
BTN ($11.69)

Dealt to Hero Q♠ Q♦

Hero raises to $0.35, fold, UTG+2 raises to $3.85 (AI), fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $3.50

FLOP ($7.85) A♦ 8♣ 3♠

TURN ($7.85) A♦ 8♣ 3♠ 9♥

RIVER ($7.85) A♦ 8♣ 3♠ 9♥ 2♥

Hero shows Q♠ Q♦
(Pre 58%, Flop 8.8%, Turn 4.5%)

UTG+2 shows K♥ A♣
(Pre 42%, Flop 91.2%, Turn 95.5%)

UTG+2 wins $7.46

So that is actually the exact way that HEM displays it. Not that it means shit as obviously ITS NOT A STAT THAT MATTERS - Work on the rest of your game and leave this crappy stat where it belongs - Not displayed.

FFS, arguing about this is so fucking stupid. And if someone wanted to pick up on something and try and be a clever dick it should of been that AI EV AK vs QQ is only 42% (according to HEM).

Screw trying to help people in this forum....

All in EV graph beef

Ive allways been looking alot at my ev graph but after looking at this thread wow i will remove it