KQo with river decision HU pot OOP

I think that

1) he very often has ace high here as he raised flop and checked back on the gutshot giving turn
2) you'll almost never get a better hand to fold, because I think that the most likely better hands in his range are Ax or stuff like 32s, 53s, 43s that have a straight now

So if you bet you're targeting stuff like QJ, JT but I think he would bet these on the turn - and, of course, you beat these.

I would check/fold hoping that he sometimes checks back a worse hand

nit

... yes ok, given those assumptions x/f starts to look like the candidate of choice.

So if you're assumptions are right its hard to advocate for other options...

but I'm not sure if our assumptions here are correct.

There also might be some other really important factors that would be more relevant which I haven't thought of / haven't been posted.

x/f looks good to me, it's between that and x/c

Betting at this point serves next to no purpose, your opponent's WTSD is high his raise then check is not indicative of a made hand, more a desperation attempt to get a free card

I think you're much more likely to induce a bluff off this type of player than you are getting him to fold better.

However in this case the board has come pretty terribly for us...however I'm stuggling to think of a hand he plays like this post-flop which has us beat. If he's bluffing and backdoor'd into a pair on the turn then betting for value is surely the best play...checking here with something like A5 or A2 makes almost no sense vs your range. The only hand I can think of is 33 but even that really should be betting for value, you've got so much A and K-high he needs to protect vs.

I am really beginning to talk myself into thinking he has airball here. His line makes no sense, we have pretty much the nut bluffcatcher in our range and we'd be getting 6-1 on a river call...very very close.

Certainly checking first here....after that I think it's close enough you could justify it either way vs this guy.

lol, and here I'm trying to work on not making hero calls...

If i check river, I probably snap call in this spot.

Sure, betting doesn't often get him off made hands but if he's got a lot of air it doesn't need to work that often to be better than x/c...

.... note that this only really holds water if he's going to bluff the river close to the correct frequency, at which point playing check/call is kind of a nightmare situation (that I'm making sound scary rather than explaining well)..

^ I would be very suspicious of this crazy logic....

...does...need...sleep.

edit: I just tried to eat The Mental Game of Poker.. I had been eating pizza, then my plate was empty. All the sudden I was holding the book like a slice of pizza. wth brain.

(insert knowledge related food joke here).

Originally posted by datsmahname

edit: I just tried to eat The Mental Game of Poker.. I had been eating pizza, then my plate was empty. All the sudden I was holding the book like a slice of pizza. wth brain.

(insert knowledge related food joke here).

Definitely Food For Thought

Ok that was terrible

Originally posted by Boomer2k10
x/f looks good to me, it's between that and x/c
Certainly checking first here....after that I think it's close enough you could justify it either way vs this guy.

I agree, I tend to fold because I would expect him to bluff his air type of hands on the turn, his check back seems to be a hand with SDvalue more often