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30$ JJ line hits a set and folds turn vs a reg

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kurrkabin
Joined: 12.10.2010

Poker Stars No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10.00/t20.00 Blinds - 7 players - View hand 1615028
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG+1): t1400.00 70 BBs
MP: t2060.00 103 BBs
CO: t1470.00 73.50 BBs
BTN: t1470.00 73.50 BBs
SB: t1400.00 70 BBs
BB: t4200.00 210 BBs
UTG: t1500.00 75 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is UTG+1 with J :diamond: J :club:
UTG raises to t70, Hero calls t70, 5 folds

Flop: (t170) K :diamond: 6 :heart: J :spade: (2 players)
UTG bets t100.00, Hero calls t100

Turn: (t370) T :heart: (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets t185.00, UTG raises to t440, Hero folds

Villain is a marginal winner on the midstakes. I have him marked as a relatively weak reg player.

He only reps AQ. I don't see what else he will play like that though. AK, KK, TT he keeps on betting imo. Or least, he is not playing like that I think. Maybe he has a read on me that I float a lot and take it down IP. I dunno. His betsizing screams AQ too. What do ya think?


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3 replies
neelton
Joined: 08.12.2008

I would think that you need more info/reads on anyone to be able to define with such certainty their hand. Yes, AQx fits perfectly, but for example, wouldn't it be possible for him to know you could float? I for one have played his line against certain villains as a bluff and I can see myself playing it to extract value from hands like AJs, QQ, AK.

You beat TT, AK, AA(all of which are in his range imo unless more reads are present), you're beaten by KK, AQ.
So even though AQ is the most probable, without any solid reads I`m not sure I can dump a set here. Then again, I`m pretty rusty so...


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kurrkabin
Joined: 12.10.2010

I fully agree with you, fold is tight, but what hands he plays like that and we beat? Only one I can think of is TT. His raise sizing indicates strength. Never thought I was getting re-raised here. AA is extremely overplayed if he goes for bet flop- c/r turn imo. AK won't c/r turn either.


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im never folding this. why would he play AQ like this? makes no sense for him to play any value-hand like this.

his thinking goes like this... "i know he will float me, i know he will bet the turn, so im going to c/raise his bluff".

flat the turn and re-eval the river. usually not folding.

if he does play value-hands like this (lol). then he would play worse sets the same. so you still cant fold


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