This morning I continued with the video of w34z3l Range Cam.
He works now with PowerEquilab. Until now I only work with Equilab.
So I am going to give the free trial a try.
On the turn Elpsycho is defending too much. Because the range of Kidzoltan is almost completely value.
Elpsycho floated on the flop with a balanced range. But then the turn comes A of spades. That removes a lot of hands from his range. So this is a bad situation for Elpsycho. If Elpsycho knows that Kidzoltan is so value-weighted than he should have folded on the turn.
What rests now for him is to bluff on the river.
1) River pairs J. Kidzoltan shoves 69.
So now we calculate how often Elpsycho needs to be good.
Elpsycho needs to invest 69 to win a total pot of 220. This is 31% investment.
So he needs to be good 31% of the time if he calls the river.
This means for Kidzoltan that he needs to bluff 31% of the time.
And that he must valuebet 69% of the time.
But the range of Kidzoltan is only value.
This is very exploitable.
Only if Kidzoltan knows that Elpsycho is a calling station then it is OK to only bet with a valuerange.
In case Elpsycho is an unknown then Kidzoltans play is not optimal.
Elpsycho calls the riverbet 70% of the time. This is not optimal. Because Kidzoltan has a range-advantage. (he barreled 3 times on a drawy texture!)
And Elpsycho has to defend against an automatic profit by Fold Equity by Kidzoltan only 55 % of the time.
The reason why Elpsycho called so much is that in his calling range on the river are a lot of Jacks. And he has difficulty folding trips.
His mistake is that he is calling with AQ-hands.
2) Kidzoltan checks and Elpsycho shoves all in.
The check-calling range of Kidzoltan is AQo and AQs.
The shoverange of Elpsycho has 26% bluff. So that is a good balanced range.
CONCLUSION
In the first case when Kidzoltan shoves on the river, then the call of Elpsycho was not optimal, because he overdefends.
In the 2nd case when Kidzoltan checks, then the shove of Elpsycho was good.
In general Kidzoltan does not have enough bluff in his range.
In general the ranges of Elpsycho are good balanced.