NL10 SH Zoom - AKo

Hi TinoLaan,

I'm here for my course homework.
I think we should raise the flop. It's very wet and we should protect from flushes and straights/gutshots. We have top 2 pair and I think villain can call with worse. If he shoves I think we can call because we only have to be afraid of QJ/TT plus we have outs for full house.

Hey Marlies,

Thanks for the reply

Great to see you evaluating other players' hands for the course. Please don't hesitate to further discuss this hand and other hands as that will help a ton

I agree with you in a sense that there could be value in raising. But I think it's a bit ambitious to think that he will donk here with a flush draw or pair + gutshot type hand, considering it's a 4way pot on the flop. I think his donking range, especially when he bets large, is going to be quite strong here.

Against a value range of just two pair or better we're actually a dog, and if he has AQ/AJ here as well then we are only a slight favorite.

Also our outs to a full house aren't really worth relying on imo because it's only 4 outs.

Hello,

I think calling down looks good. He looks quite tight over the 40 hands, so if we raise the flop here we are probably not getting action from worse.

Best,
Plamen

Hi,

I'm just worried that if he has a monster hand he'll just keep betting as he did in this hand. Also, if you call there's still 2 people behind you and they'll have better odds for their draws, and you don't want to see any high card or heart fall on further streets.

Great discussion so far

Well yeah, of course he's going to keep betting if he has a monster. But he will also keep betting AT/KT which I beat. I think the problem with raising is, like Plamen said, that we largely isolate ourselves against a stronger range.

Yes we give the other players the option to call with draws, but that's a risk I'm willing to take here I think, considering raising for value is very tough.

Let's say the guy donks with something like this, which is purely a value range:

TT,ATs+,KTs,QJs,ATo+,KTo,QJo

Against this range we do pretty well of course. However, if we raise I'm quite certain he will fold AJ/AQ, which is already about 30% of his range. Plus it's not unlikely that he'll fold KT as well. However, if he were to shove over us, I think it's safe to assume that we're going to be crushed pretty often by TT/QJ, maybe he'll shove AK/AT here, which is unlikely imo.

A range of TT,AKs,ATs,QJs,AKo,ATo has us crushed. If he doesn't shove AT either then we're just hoping to split with AK or rely on a 4 outer.

So imo it's better to let him continue betting KT/AT type hands and call him down rather than raise the flop, because I think there's not enough value.

If he continues betting only two pair or better (I don't think he'll really continue barreling just top pair here, considering it was 4way on the flop), meaning a range of:

TT,AKs,ATs,KTs,QJs,AKo,ATo,KTo,QJo

Then we are easily getting the odds to call him down.

So yes, we give other players the option to call behind with draws, but we cannot raise for value so that's a risk we will have to take imo.

Just my take on it ♦

Mhm yes, I agree.

Sorry for the late answer, forgot about this one.

I completely agree with Tino here.
As I stated in my initial post, we are not really going to get much action if we are raising here as our range is quite strong in this spot.
Of course, we will have to live with letting people chase their draws cheaper, but this could turn out well, if someone calls with KJ/KQ and the K pairs on turn.