[December Marathon] - [jules97] - Headstart on 2014

Zero info on Villain.

My thoughts

Preflop:

Oh he has a full stack and is calling a 3b on the BB. I guess he's not completely fishy and is calling with something like TT+,AQo, suited broadways.

Flop:

Nice, we hit, hopefully he has a worse king.

River:

Hmm, I have no idea what he has, KT? A set? he'd raise a set I think... I swear if he has J9... Oh well, I guess I've got to bet. Here's hoping he calls with KQ/KJ...

iPoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $51.00
UTG: $55.15
MP: $51.67
CO: $47.25
BTN: $71.81
Hero (SB): $76.94

Hero posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has K♣ A♣

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $1.25, Hero raises to $4.00, BB calls $3.50, fold

Flop: ($9.25, 2 players) K♦ T♦ 8♥
Hero bets $4.62, BB calls $4.62

Turn: ($18.49, 2 players) 4♣
Hero bets $9.24, BB calls $9.24

River: ($36.97, 2 players) 7♥
Hero bets $33.50, BB calls $33.14

In other news, I swear I'm not making this up, our dog got in a fight with an echidna! This echidna was big, about as long as a keyboard and quite solid. Thankfully Diesel was smart enough not to hurt himself on the spikes.

Anyways, by the time anyone had got outside to see what the commotion was (it was early morning again), he had been at it for at least an hour is our best guess. The echidna had dug in quite solid ground about a foot and a half deep and was latched firmly onto the ground with only its spikes showing. He was perfectly fine. Dragged our crazy hyped up Diesel inside and then tried to remove the echidna from the hole and put him somewhere safe. But it was not letting go. Had to wait for him to leave on his own time.

He's getting an impressive list now... koalas, kangaroos, echidnas, foxes, birds...

Just had one of those dream sessions @ 40bb/100 without even playing particularly well. Sucking out, getting paid, bluffs working. Feels nice to be on that end of the stick.

Already hit my volume targets for the month. I suppose I'll finish this month at nl50 and then have another crack and nl100. Starting to feel like I'm one the best reg in the player pool. I haven't seen a couple of the trickier regs lately. Maybe they moved up or went elsewhere.

Reg Hunting 2.0

This guy I have fuckton of hands on and is the biggest winner in my database. So lets see what he's doing.

Preflop

His open raise ranges are fairly standard and his fold to 3b is pretty much ok. Not much to see there at first glance. The only outlier in his fold to preflop 3b is his SB fold 67% to 3b.

Another thing is he folds his CUT opens to BTN 3bs 68% of the time. This is a familiar pattern I'm seeing with many regs. They open decently wide from CUT and don't feel comfortable defending as much as they should be OOP. IP on CUT his frequencies are fine.
I think it may be time to ramp up the aggression on the BTN verse wide opening ranges.

His 3betting ranges are interesting. At first glance, his 8% 3b looks ok, but when we look at it positionally. We see it's really messed up.

8% from MP
8% from CUT
4% from BUT?!
6% from SB?!
11% from BB

If we check out his fold to 4b stat when he opens in MP or CUT, there aren't enough samples or he folds too much. Given he doesn't like to play OOP and 3b's so wide here, I think there's some value to be had 4betting light against these 3bets.

On this note of MP 3bets, I really think there is great value in opening up a 3b range from MP. As a population read at this limit, regs give it way too much respect.

Looks like we can just exploitably fold to much of his BTN and SB 3bets.

He 4bets a range of 3% across most postions. So QQ+ Ak, and one bluff combo. 4bets a slightly wider range from SB but nothing to get excited about.

H3 folds his BB 74% to BTN opens and is just not defending enough of his BB's in a somewhat balanced way. ♦

Postflop

As PFR

Cbets flop, turn & river at 70%, 58% & 43% respectively
In 3b pots, he cbets flop, turn & river at 80%, 65% and 21%.

I think this is interesting. His 3betting range that sees the flop is very strong usually, so he likes to barrel it, but then give up on rivers. This may mean we can play draws IP passively in 3b pots and often have a profitable river bluffing opportunity.

His cbets are about 10% less likely OOP than IP. Except on the river, where OOP he cbets signifcantly less. Given this in 3b pots, if he's betting the river OOP, fucking watch out!

He folds to flop/turn raises at 49%, 58%
3b pots its 25% (9/36), 57% (4/7)

Verses PFR

Folds to cbets 58%, 28%, 30% Kinda the perfect candiate to bluff a ton of flops and put the barrels away except for value.

Floats flop 75%, turn 70%... So once again strengthen our checking range.
He also likes to probe turns 69%... so same deal here

This reminds me, I really need to finish building my custom stats I've been working on... some of them include 'barrel turn after floating flop' & 'barrel turn & river after floating flop' . Unfortunately my programming skills suck and it's a pain in the neck to do, but I'm getting better at it.

I see his raise limper range is 32% and when he does this he's making 178bb/100. He cbets these >80%

Mine is 22%. This looks like I may have a massive leak...

His IP raise limp ranger is nearing 38%, while his SB, BB raise limping range is 27.5%.
Mine is
BTN 30%
CUT 24%
MP 11%
SB 17%
BB 22%

This makes me think 2 things.
1. I feel physically sick staring at what looks to be such a massive leak.

2. Perhaps there is some opportunity going after some of these raised limper pots.

I'd really like to know what a someone like Pleno's postional raise limper stats are. This is something that should be transferable across all limits.

During pleno's coaching I decided to play a micro millions event. The $3.30 FL Omaha Hi/Lo. I didnt' have the patience or skill for it and it didn't go well. But I also played a 20FPP NL sat and managed to bink that into a $20+2 Aussie Millions sat. Only 2 more steps to go until the 10K main event...

It ran a bit longer than the coaching and I didn't feel like playing so I did the following instead.

A famous hedge fund manager who, despite losing all his money a few times and being forced to literally sell the silverware to pay the bills, is quite brilliant. He likes to draw analogies from plants (I know right, of all things) and compare them to markets.

After reading Pleno's new website and being reminding of Sun Tzu let's see if I can take a more common approach and draw some parallels between poker and Sun Tsu's Art of war.

I just hit up some random pages, because well, who likes to start from the start.

If you can't read the girls, you may just wish to continue trying. Failing that, here it is:

Sun Tzu said: In the practical art of war, the best thing of all is to take the enemy’s country whole
and intact; to shatter and destroy it is not so good. So, too, it is better to recapture an army entire
than to destroy it, to capture a regiment, a detachment or a company entire than to destroy them.

It may be best not kill the sheep and exploit auto profit situations but instead just shear it regularly so as not to kill the opportunity.

Sun Tzu said: In the operations of war, where there are in the field a thousand swift chariots,
as many heavy chariots, and a hundred thousand mail-clad soldiers, with provisions enough to
carry them a thousand li, the expenditure at home and at the front, including entertainment of guests,
small items such as glue and paint, and sums spent on chariots and armor, will reach the total of a
thousand ounces of silver per day. Such is the cost of raising an army of 100,000 men.

We can compare this to rake. Rake makes some stratagies valid and some too costly. And sometimes, such as reg infested games, a losing proposition for everyone.

We can also compare this to paying the cost of a draw.

Sun Tzu said: Whoever is first in the field and awaits the coming of the enemy, will be fresh for the
fight; whoever is second in the field and has to hasten to battle will arrive exhausted.

Being the first to adapt to the current metagame is cruical. A good understanding of what is GTO so as to how and where to exploit the metagame is very helpful.

Therefore the clever combatant imposes his will on the enemy, but does not allow the enemy’s will
to be imposed on him.

I think this is the heart and soul of all competitive games. If you can pressure your opponent and take them out of their comfort zone, they make mistakes. No matter how good an opponent is they will always be vulnerable to this.

We can do this in poker thousands of ways, we just need to work out. Raising limpers, having the intiative (which has no GTO value), etc.

By holding out advantages to him, he can cause the enemy to approach of his own accord; or, by
inflicting damage, he can make it impossible for the enemy to draw near.

By slowplaying or strenthening our more passive lines, we can cause Villain to overplay is hand; or, by
being aggressive we can make villain fold and not realize his equity.

Appear at points which the enemy must hasten to defend; march swiftly to places where you are
not expected.

Bet large when we have the nuts/near nuts and villain is near the top of his range but feels he must defend certain frequencies;

When board texture dictates it's rare you have a good hand and villain feels he must defend often bet large.

You can be sure of succeeding in your attacks if you only attack places which are undefended. You
can ensure the safety of your defense if you only hold positions that cannot be attacked.

Be careful. You're only ever safe with the absolute nutz.

A general is skillful in attack whose opponent does not know what to defend; and he is
skillful in defense whose opponent does not know what to attack.

A skillful player plays exploitably against weaker opponents. By both attacking more when he can and defending less when he can.

If we wish to fight, the enemy can be forced to an engagement even though he be sheltered
behind a high rampart and a deep ditch. All we need do is attack some other place that he will be
obliged to relieve.

If a villain is running all over you aggressively in one spot (i.e. 3bets, IP, whatever) it may be best to defend as well as you can here and look for other parts of his game to attack, rather than attack into his strength.

Had this interesting hand today against an annoying reg.
I thought I may look a little like some missed draws, so decided get polarized and jam for value.

#Overplay?
#TooThin?

iPoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $56.61
UTG: $49.50
MP: $27.65
Hero (CO): $97.48
BTN: $50.00
SB: $91.18

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has J♦ 9♦

fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.25, fold, SB raises to $4.00, fold, Hero calls $2.75

Flop: ($8.50, 2 players) Q♥ J♥ J♣
SB bets $5.00, Hero calls $5.00

Turn: ($18.50, 2 players) T♣
SB checks, Hero bets $12.95, SB calls $12.95

River: ($44.40, 2 players) 4♦
SB checks, Hero bets $75.53, SB calls $69.23

Since I've been doing the 'reg hunting' reviews, not only have I learnt a lot about how to exploit that specific villain. I've also learnt some great ways to exploit the general player population. On top of that, I've also learnt some things the other regs are doing really, really well and managed to add them to my game.
I aggressively raised limpers today (I know right, so 1995 ) and also aggressively attacked other regs raises. Both went well.

Now for some fun hands from todays session. ♠_biggrin: ♠_biggrin: ♠_biggrin:

iPoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $37.84
UTG: $135.03
MP: $48.47
CO: $12.94
BTN: $54.40
Hero (SB): $126.87

Hero posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has A♣ Q♥

fold, fold, CO raises to $1.50, fold, Hero raises to $4.50, BB calls $4.00, CO calls $3.00

Flop: ($13.50, 3 players) Q♠ Q♦ 6♥
Hero bets $1.50, BB raises to $3.00, fold, Hero raises to $4.50, BB raises to $6.00, Hero raises to $7.50, BB raises to $11.50, Hero raises to $15.50, BB calls $4.00

Turn: ($44.50, 2 players) 5♦
Hero bets $40.05, BB calls $17.84

River: ($80.18, 2 players) 5♠

Perhaps the following hand people won't like. I don't know? I like to have some strong hands in my check/calling and I figure BB's range and the board, hopefully he's picked up some equity and can barrel it. Obviously there's a few scary turn cards, but I figure I'm just going to x/c down or go with it on most turns anyway. If I get punched in the face for giving away free cards, so be it.

Both regs.

iPoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $50.00
UTG: $20.00
MP: $70.86
CO: $50.00
BTN: $50.00
Hero (SB): $110.45

Hero posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has K♠ K♥

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $1.25, Hero raises to $4.00, BB calls $3.50, BTN calls $2.75

Flop: ($12.00, 3 players) 9♣ K♦ T♣
Hero checks, BB bets $7.20, fold, Hero calls $7.20

Turn: ($26.40, 2 players) A♠
Hero checks, BB bets $16.00, Hero raises to $66.96, BB calls $22.80

River: ($104.00, 2 players) 5♠

iPoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $59.79
UTG: $51.93
MP: $24.34
CO: $20.00
Hero (BTN): $51.50
SB: $51.50

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has 2♦ 6♦

UTG calls $0.50, fold, fold, Hero raises to $2.00, fold, fold, UTG calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.75, 2 players) 6♣ 6♥ 2♣
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.50, UTG calls $1.50

Turn: ($7.75, 2 players) 7♠
UTG checks, Hero bets $5.42, UTG raises to $10.84, Hero calls $5.42

River: ($29.43, 2 players) K♦
UTG bets $37.59, Hero calls $37.16

lol great

1) pro
2) i tend to always check top set for balance bluffinduce etc, on that specific board though i think you can rep a lot of draws by c/r. anyway i like c/c c/s too
3) image macro is rly true but you know he's not bluffing, so why not (min)3b turn?
river was pretty bad for you ♦ but all went fine i guess

I really like the line with KK.

I check my tops sets quite often to protect my checking range. I usually x/r though, I'll have to experiment with x/c x/jam... nh!

cheers guys

Originally posted by Tomaloc
3) image macro is rly true but you know he's not bluffing, so why not (min)3b turn?
river was pretty bad for you ♦ but all went fine i guess

Yeah, I don't know which is best.
I called to keep his range as wide as possible. You never know, sometimes they rock up with A3o. He was a bonafide fish.
I don't know which is best. If I were OOP i'd definitely raise.

Some hands from todays short session.

Hand 1
#ValueOrBluff?

iPoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): $79.07
UTG: $51.50
MP: $19.00
CO: $188.89
BTN: $50.00
SB: $57.72

SB posts SB $0.25, Hero posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has T♦ T♣

fold, MP raises to $1.25, CO calls $1.25, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.75

Flop: ($4.00, 3 players) 7♥ J♦ 7♠
Hero checks, MP bets $2.50, fold, Hero calls $2.50

Turn: ($9.00, 2 players) 3♣
Hero checks, MP checks

River: ($9.00, 2 players) 2♠
Hero bets $2.50, MP raises to $5.00, Hero raises to $75.32 and is all-in, fold

Hand 2
#GetTheFuckOutOfMyPot

iPoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): $50.00
UTG: $83.29
MP: $50.00
CO: $55.96
BTN: $50.00
SB: $50.00

SB posts SB $0.25, Hero posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has Q♣ T♣

UTG raises to $1.50, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $1.00

Flop: ($3.25, 2 players) 2♠ 8♣ 3♠
Hero checks, UTG checks

Turn: ($3.25, 2 players) 4♥
Hero bets $2.27, UTG calls $2.27

River: ($7.79, 2 players) 4♠
Hero bets $5.45, UTG raises to $20.50, Hero raises to $46.23 and is all-in, fold

Hand 3
#OverplayOrBluff?

iPoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): $80.04
UTG: $48.49
MP: $98.25
CO: $60.11
BTN: $16.65
SB: $59.25

SB posts SB $0.25, Hero posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has J♣ Q♣

fold, MP raises to $1.75, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.75, 2 players) 4♥ Q♠ Q♥
Hero checks, MP bets $3.00, Hero calls $3.00

Turn: ($9.75, 2 players) T♣
Hero checks, MP checks

River: ($9.75, 2 players) J♥
Hero checks, MP bets $7.00, Hero raises to $25.00, MP raises to $93.50 and is all-in, Hero calls $50.29

The coaching gameplan for pleno's coaching this weak is some range anlaysis of this hand.

I did the following analysis for a balanced, unkown range and posted it in the thread.

Originally posted by jules97

Spoiler

Open BTN range 50.8%

So, skipping the math, I'm going to arrive at the ratio off ~30% of our opening range I want to call to be unexploitable in this scenario.

30% x 50.4% = 15% of all possible hands called.

Call Preflop 3b range
Light blue line - 1 combo AA

I don't have a flop raising range.

Flop bet is $9 into $15.50
So we must defend at least 63% of the time on the flop if doing so by calling.

63% x 15% = 9.45

Call flop bet range
Pink line = hearts and spades - gutshot +backdoor fd
Yellow line = spades only - FD
Light blue line = 1 combo AA

Turn

I want one bluff per value bet on the turn with 2 streets of value left.

Value Bet combos

55 3 combos
KJs 3 combos
AA 1 combo
KQo 9 combos
KQs 3 combos
KTs 3 combos
K9s 3 combos

25 combos

Mid Pair combos
AJo 9 combos

Bluff Combos
QTs 4 combos
All non paired FD combos excluding AQ
All gutshot/fd combos excluding AQ
24 combos

Total combos bet 62 = 5.7% of total range = 60% of turn range.

I don't think I can do my river ranges and talk about which hands I would bet again without a river card. But I can say any completed draw will have a lot of betting coming at it!

A quick note on Turn bet sizing.

Our opponent after taking this line has a range consisting of mostly the following:

-A hand he bluffed the flop with which he is x/folding.
-A marginal hand he is x/calling.
-A x/r range with (if he's balanced) 1:1, bluffs:value

So any bet kills off the x/folding part of the range.
A large bet is good if he's x/calling.
A small bet is better if he's x/raising.

Firstly BB's range betting from the BB is polarized. After betting the flop and checking the turn, his range still mostly consists of air or the nuts.
On this king high flop a typical BB 3betting V button range has top pair or better only 17.5% of the time and no made hand 62% of the time. He has a mid pair or weak pair 8% of the time and Ace high 10% of the time.

The turn card doesn't really put any marginal hands in his range either. Hands he would now x/call the turn with that he bluffed on the flop. He may still have a medium strength hand that he bet on the flop that he is x/calling with however.
With 2 flush draws the board is semi coordinated and a x/r turn range is certainly possible.
So I think a medium sized bet, such as about 1/2 pot would do well.

This gets his x/f range done and that equity gone.
His x/calling range is forced to defend wider and we can play more IP
His x/r range doesn't hurt us as much as if we made a larger bet.

Now I'm going to try and see how I would change my range based on some hypothetical villain stats (I stole some stats form a reg winning at 7bb/100 over 34k hands @nl50 zoom).

He's 3b from the BB v the BTN about 16.5%.
First thought is this looks a little low. However this is against all BTN raises, so against a 2bb BTN open he is probably 3betting a little more at close to balanced frequencies.
I assume he's 3betting a polarized range.

His fold to 4bet is in the BB is 61% and he doesn't really have a calling 4b range in this position. This is a little high, so I think I can widen my 4bet bluffing range a little. But this won't change my 3b calling range, because I'll just add a few of the next worst hands I can't profitably call, like some A9o, QJo, A8o.

Do his postflop stats effect my preflop 3b calling range?

His cbet flop,turn & river in 3b pots is 66%, 63%, 69% respectively. So quite aggressive.

His fold to 2b on flop, turn & river is 61%, 56% and 61%. It's very similar in 3b pots where sample size permits.
This is a little high. I can slightly open my 3b calling range and raise a few more spots postflop.

He folds to flop float bets 63% of the time and folds to turn floats 67% of the time. He folds to river float 93% of the time. So his checking range is weak and hands that I can get to the river with and bluff with when he checks will be very profitable.
This means I can widen my calling range a little more, ideally with hands that have some equity and can float flops and turns.

Given all that info I think I can have a preflop range of something like the following. Which is about 17% wider than my normal 3b calling range.

On the flop, I want to have a raising range to take advantage of him folding to raises a little too often. Instead of having on average 2 bluffs per value raise, I want to up it to about 2.5 or 3 bluffs to value.

Value Flop Raising Range
KJs 3 combos

Bluff Flop Raising Range

Gutshot/backdoor FD combos
Q9hh 1 combo
T9hh 1 combo
AThh 1 combo
AQs 1 combo
AhQx 3 combos

JJ set blocker, BD FD
J7hh 1 combo
J8hh 1 combo

Total Bluff combos = 9

Flop Calling Range

Turn Value Bet combos

55 3 combos
AA 1 combo
KQo 9 combos
KQs 3 combos
KTs 3 combos
K9s 3 combos

22 combos

Mid Pair combos
AJo 9 combos

Bluff combos
QTs
All non paired FD combos including AQs
All gutshot/fd combos including AQo
37 combos

Because he x/folds turns so much i can pretty much bluff everything without showdown value

keep clicking those butts ♦

nice blog , done a follow

After seeing Oblioos interview, I thought I better spend a bit more time on my 3b ranges. Spending a lot of time today working on these (oh god i hate maths ). When I got sick of that I spent some time working on my hud.

3b

I won't bore anyone reading with the maths. But here is what I came up with for 3b sizes versus a positions RFI.

RFI Position	RFI Size	3b % V RFI Pos.
		
UTG		3		6.23%
MP		3		7.71%
CUT		2.5		11.60%
BTN		2		19.53%
SB		3		26.67%

I think these numbers (be they good or bad lol) agree withwhat Oblioo said. That many players simply are not 3betting enough.

These ranges don't consider where the 3bet location comes from. So say, it says we want to 3b the maximum of 6.23% verse UTG. It would probably be better to 3b a little more from the button verse UTG and a little less on MP verse UTG.

These ranges are based on the RFI size and ideal defending frequencies of people left to act.

I think they also demonstrate that when I think I am being exploitable, I am probably not being as exploitable as I could.

For example, say CO is opening and I'm normally 3betting 10%. Next I find he folds 3bets in this spot 70%. I think I really should be 3betting here a fuckload more than I currently am. I have no idea how much. But in fast fold games, I could probably get away with 30%. Probably even more for a very long time. This is a very common leak going around which would make a massive difference in winrate if exploited efficiently.

Another thing to take away from this, is because people aren't 3betting enough in many spots, we can play exploitably by simply folding a little more to their 3bets and not spewing away, when they do decide to wake up.

So now I'm in the process of designing and trying to remember new 3betting ranges based on these numbers.

Then all I have to do is modify these ranges on the fly, based on every one at the tables preflop and postflop stats/playstyle. Piece of cake really. ♠_wink:

HUD

My hud has some quite cool stuff now with some very useful custom stats I've made that I haven't seen anywhere else. Puts to shame many of those huds being sold imho.

Unfortunately the amount of data on it is getting a little ridiculous and getting borderline too large for my monitor. But it's all useful. And I much prefer it immediately accessible rather than having commonly used stats on a popup. Because we all know, if the stats are only on popup they won't get used as much as they should. Once everything on the hud is committed to muscle memory it's really not a problem.

I currently have 48 stats on my hud per player.... ♠_o: Really want to add a fold BTN to CO open stat, but I really don't have the screen real estate and don't want to lose anything for it. First world poker problems. I can probably cram it on somewhere, but then the problem is it's not in a logical spot and committing to muscle memory takes a long time. I work it out somehow...

I have been thinking about buying a new monitor for a while. I use a 21.5 inch at 1920*1080. A few weeks ago when I went to the computer store to buy a new mouse (logitech g400s ftw, I've been using previous versions of this model for 15 years now!) I almost bought a new 24". But didn't when I thought I really don't need one. Maybe now I can justify it! They're cheap anyway, I think I can get a decent one for $170.

I also made some sexy popups too. Such as this positional 3b popups

I think some of the more expensive 24" have 1900x1200 or something & fit 12 tables better, there is a thread somewhere on 2+2.

I guess dell ultrabrights would have that resolution, i picked up a 24 for £35 second hand

Originally posted by jules97

I also made some sexy popups too. Such as this positional 3b popups

nice pop up. care to share?

Sorry, I don't want to share these. But fwiw worth I'm pretty sure this one can be built using freely available stats. All that needs to be spent is a little time.
Unlike some others like my 'fold to 3bet positional' one, I had to build custom stats for each stat. ♠_mad: And the time it took me to do that... oh god.

Back on to 3b ranges

I decided to see what snowie thought about 3betting to see if i could get any insight.

Things to consider:

1. These are pot sized raises, so in some positions raise sizes are very accurate to raise sizes I'd use, in others they're a little large. I don't think it grossly changes ranges, but it does change them
2. The purple cells are where the pot sized raise comes close to an actual raise I would use, due to smaller RFI size or blinds being part of the 3b.
3. Snowie's positional RFI. Which is a bastardized estimation (but a pretty good one I think )and not accurate of an actual snowie RFI given the RFI sizing I wanted to use.
4. This doesn't show the whole story of snowies defending ranges. It doesn't show cold call.

After realizing that half the story isn't really good idea, I did cold calling and total range defended for snowie too.

Thoughts

Snowie doesn't 3b a lot. But snowie doesn't open a lot either.

100bb deep Snowie doesn't really think there's any advantage to 3b when 'more' IP. I.e. snowie has a similar 3b range between BUT v UTG and MP v UTG.
Snowie prefers to take advantage of position by cold calling. This makes sense, as position is more valuable with deeper stack sizes. I suppose I should do the same snowie spreadsheet again, but 200bb deep.
This also makes sense, because snowie plays damn well OOP. In reality there is probably an advantage 3betting more IP if people are calling 3b's OOP, because people play a lot worse than snowie OOP.

THe snowie 3b as % of RFI I wanted to see.

In one of MBML's videos he said that after studying players he found that the most successful ones 3b a range of .25 to .35 of the RFI's opening range. He recommends having the variability between 3betting .25 or .35 range dependent on villains postflop skill.

Snowie tends to agree with this. with most ranges fitting with .25 to .30. The outliers are BB verse MP/CO. I thought it may be because a pot sized bet on BB with the bb taken into account is a little smaller. But then it should be way off for the other BB v positions too. It also pops up with other snowie raise sizes.
I think this anomaly is no big deal, because when we stop and think, we are just looking at an arbitrary observation and not a rule based on logic. In which case, it's possible mbml's observation is not accurate in this situation and he might not be 3betting enough from the BB verses CO and MP opens!

So this has helped me tweak my 3b ranges a little. But it has also given me the idea that before I do 3bet ranges cold call ranges should be done first. So that's next in line, then I think I'll be in a pretty good spot to finish up some default 3bet ranges. And then I want to work on a plan on how to quickly adapt coldcall/3b/fold ranges based on opponents at the table.

I found this hand in the HE forums, thought it was interesting and couldn't stop thinking about it.

An often missed reason on why we should value bet thin.

- Because value betting gives us a bluffing range.

Take for example this hand mlatasrb posted in the HE fourms.

Originally posted by mlatasrb
PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 102.5 BB (VPIP: 17.05, PFR: 11.36, 3Bet Preflop: 5.13, Hands: 89)
Hero (SB): 152.34 BB
BB: 47.5 BB (VPIP: 17.10, PFR: 16.00, 3Bet Preflop: 7.28, Hands: 1,662)
UTG: 186.38 BB (VPIP: 30.61, PFR: 21.09, 3Bet Preflop: 4.69, Hands: 155)
MP: 129.94 BB (VPIP: 25.42, PFR: 18.64, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 59)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 20.05, PFR: 16.04, 3Bet Preflop: 5.31, Hands: 1,925)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T♣ Q♣

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.18 BB, Hero calls 1.68 BB, fold

Flop: (5.36 BB, 2 players) 9♣ 2♦ 8♥
Hero checks, BTN bets 3 BB, Hero raises to 9 BB, BTN calls 6 BB

Turn: (23.36 BB, 2 players) 8♦
Hero bets 15 BB, BTN calls 15 BB

River: (53.36 BB, 2 players) 4♣
Hero checks, BTN bets 22 BB, Hero calls 22 BB

Spoiler

BTN shows T♠ J♠ (One Pair, Eights) (Pre 30%, Flop 27%, Turn 16%)
Hero shows T♣ Q♣ (One Pair, Eights) (Pre 70%, Flop 73%, Turn 84%)
Hero wins 92.98 BB

Is turn give up on paired board?
Flop and turn he snap called, which is often a draw, thats why I call river because I beat TJ, and 76. I dont think that he bets a pair, maybe QQ+ also not necessarly that

Ignore hero's preflop and flop & turn options. On the river when villain bets, what range can we put him on?

Let's say he can still have all sets/quads from the flop. - 7 combos.
All 98o/s combos and 94s 9 combos
8x - 16 combos
Over pairs - 21 combos
T9+ hands - 54 combos
Total value combos = 110

For bluffs, lets give him
TJo, TJs, 76o, 76s. - 28 combos.
QTdd 1 combo
Total bluff combos 29

Bluff/value ratio = 29/110 = 26%

If villain bets river 40% pot, he should want a ratio of 22.5% bluffs per value bet. So if this is villain's range, although villain's bet size is not ideal (55-60% pot would be better) it's really pretty good.

Now, let's say we have a read that villain can only value bet overpairs or better. 56 value combos to 29 bluff combos. B/V ratio = 52% where it's impossible to overbet big enough to be balanced. So snap calling villains bet with queen high is the way to go.

Now, let's say we have a read that villain can value bet only the strongest of hands on the river, sets/quads/trips/boats. 32 combos. B/V ratio = 87.5%. Villain is now hemorrhaging money with his bluffs.

Things to note

• If someone can't value bet rivers, it really doesn't matter how rarely they are betting rivers. If they have even only a small amount of bluffs in their range, they are still bluffing too much!
• If they can't value bet rivers, and have bluffs in their range, they can't overbet large enough to make up for their lack of value hands.
• If there are marginal spots earlier in the hand, these marginal spots swing to glaring 'must do' options to take advantage of villains leaks later in the hand. i.e. in this example hand hero's turn decision is very marginal between x/f (or x/r) and barreling. It becomes disgustingly plus EV when villain can't value bet his river when checked to. If villain can value bet and is good, one is probably better of check/folding or x/r this marginal spot.
• Not value betting thin enough in some situations (such as the situation in the example hand) is a common leak.
• If we don't value bet thin enough, we can't have bluffs.
• Learn to value bet thinly!
• Be on the hunt to find reads that villains can't value bet thinly! ♠_biggrin:

How to use a lifetime's worth of run good in one hand. ♠_cool:
#ezgame

iPoker - $1 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): $324.14
CO: $233.90
BTN: $202.82
SB: $80.55

SB posts SB $0.50, Hero posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.50) Hero has J♦ 9♦

CO raises to $3.00, BTN calls $3.00, fold, Hero raises to $12.00, CO calls $9.00, BTN calls $9.00

Flop: ($36.50, 3 players) T♣ 8♦ T♦
Hero bets $28.00, CO calls $28.00, BTN calls $28.00

Turn: ($120.50, 3 players) 8♠
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN checks

River: ($120.50, 3 players) 7♦
Hero checks, CO bets $86.50, BTN raises to $162.82, Hero raises to $284.14, CO calls $106.40

Oh my god.