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Liar Dice - Diary of a Bean Counter!

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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Just wanted to take a moment to congratulate klompa (belatedly) on last month's performance. He joined me just over a year ago and since that time he has done nothing but grind through the most horribly consistent runbad at turbo and regspeed 6mx sngs I've ever encountered, and work tirelessly at his game. I don't know how many hundreds of buyins he is under EV since we started...

I do know that, had I had this early in my sng career, I would have quit for sure.

August was his biggest month as a professional poker player, at the same time making Super Nova. With his permission I'm sharing a "before and after" picture to show what is possible if you can grit your teeth and bear the pain for long enough. :) So, many congratulations, klompa!


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Ramble
Joined: 17.11.2008

Nice job Klompa (and Tim).


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Demain, nous allons a France pour un petite vacance. Nous will return in une week.

Merci and bon luck


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Graphs:

Numbers:

SNGs: $5667.17 (inc R/b) [ROI 26% // ABI $47.56]
Cash: $515.54 (inc R/b)
Staking: $2227.54
Coaching: $800

Total:
~$9210.25

Second best month so far as a pro. $2k bink on FTP Jackpot helped make this a huge month, with good results across the board.

Week off in France was a great break even though it rained a ridiculous amount :( But we brought back a ton of Normandy cider and smelly cheeses, so it's all good:

September sees another family change as the little one starts at school (um, how did THAT happen???) and as a result I will have to stop playing and working on weekends.

Yeah, that should do it. Normally I'd waffle on, but the Sinquefield Cup is Live from St Louis and I've a glass of Leffe Brun to polish off while watching Nakamura squirm against Caruana, who is having the tournament of his life, crushing everyone in his path, inc. Carlsen.

Thanks for reading and good luck in September!


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Are those mainly jackpots that you played this month?


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

I think about half and half.


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

We are being blessed with some late summer sun here in rainy England and it's helping to ripen the bumper crop of desert grapes we've had this year.

It was either Isley Brothers' Harvest for the World or this. And you are getting this:


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zachrina
Joined: 05.12.2012

Phew.....I feared the title was an indication of yet another unfortunate affliction of the aged


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Ramble
Joined: 17.11.2008

Originally posted by zachrina
Phew.....I feared the title was an indication of yet another unfortunate affliction of the aged

I think that would have been this one...


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Shucks, you guys... :) Good job poker isn't a contact sport: I'd be in a wheelchair with a neck brace by now!

Good choice, by the way, Ramble.


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enjoy2playAK
Joined: 11.08.2010

Originally posted by Tim64

lol. that graph at least explains ur pre stackoff with 55 vs random for that 70bb some time ago. gotta go with the heater :f_biggrin:

so that new klompa guy on the 30s is basically your student... if you wouldnt seem to be such a nice guy, you could be really hateable, you know plays low volume, crushes + runs like jesus and breeds new regs _evil:

anyway, greetings from austria =)


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MilanBurdych
Joined: 20.05.2008

Originally posted by enjoy2playAK

Originally posted by Tim64

lol. that graph at least explains ur pre stackoff with 55 vs random for that 70bb some time ago. gotta go with the heater :f_biggrin:

so that new klompa guy on the 30s is basically your student... if you wouldnt seem to be such a nice guy, you could be really hateable, you know plays low volume, crushes + runs like jesus and breeds new regs _evil:

anyway, greetings from austria =)

Translation - Tim, u r such an **** :D:D


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Originally posted by enjoy2playAK

lol. that graph at least explains ur pre stackoff with 55 vs random for that 70bb some time ago. gotta go with the heater :f_biggrin:

Is this the random you were referring to? He has 70+ vpip and 29 pfr. He limp/shoves button for 75bb. It's not that unreasonable of me to assume 1). he's a maniac and 2). his range is capped here. So, my call off is not half as bad as you make out. But I'm happy to concede it's not the most solid play in the book

And yes, Milan, I have google translate switched on and it gave a similar suggestion to yours. ;)


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enjoy2playAK
Joined: 11.08.2010

Originally posted by MilanBurdych
Translation - Tim, u r such an **** :D:D

haha, nah i'm cool with tim. i respect his game in general and he is one of the VERY few regs, you can have fun on the table with (like trashtalk). coz thats rare! everyone has become so fucking serious, making moneyz and playing like a machine. its still a social game thats supposed to make fun now and then.

Originally posted by Tim64

Is this the random you were referring to? He has 70+ vpip and 29 pfr. He limp/shoves button for 75bb. It's not that unreasonable of me to assume 1). he's a maniac and 2). his range is capped here. So, my call off is not half as bad as you make out. But I'm happy to concede it's not the most solid play in the book

yup thats the hand. i didnt have stats on him at that point tho. you probably thought like limp/shove - so often 22-44, A2 crap too - i call. the thing is those guys can be so random, the fact that he had AA there underlines that too and there is a difference between playing 76/29 and how he actually reacts to aggression. i think, you cant really make the assumption that he spews around that much against raises too, with only 22 hands on him?!

+ if i recall, there were 3 table spots in that sng. way too soft to gamble there at t20.


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

+ if i recall, there were 3 table spots in that sng. way too soft to gamble there at t20.

Yes, that's true. And I agree, we should be inclined to wait for a more clear spot next time round.

"Ofc, I knew the 5 was coming"


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Here's last year's annual report.

ANNUAL REPORT AUG 2013 – JUL 2014

The Directors are pleased to report that annual earnings during 2013-2014 slightly exceeded the expectations of last year’s annual report.

Q1-Q4 Graphs

August – July 2014:

Q1-Q4 Financial Results

Total Expected Revenue: $41,655.96

Earn Rate:

$/Tournament: ~$4.00
ABI $47.15

Q1-Q4 Summary

At the start of the fiscal year we were struggling to find sufficient volume due to overall discomfort. There has been a good improvement in health during the course of the last 12 months, but other poker related business activities have nevertheless resulted in a low number of games being played. These activities have nonetheless enabled a good balance of work types without significant loss of income, and indeed 2013-14 represents the best 12 month period to date as a professional poker player.

Regrettably software limitations no longer permit accurate estimate of hours worked nor, as a result, hourly rate. A rough mental estimate suggests a 15-20% reduction in overall hours, particularly in the last 6 months, where parental duties have taken more of a front line.

Next Fiscal Year Plan (2014 - 2015)

Health

The frozen shoulder having largely recovered (at least as far as being able to work at a computer) it seems reasonable to assume that health concerns will be of only minor impact over the coming 12 month period. Solid working days 4 to 5 per week can therefore be expected.

Poker Economy

The American market still not being available and continued expansion of the scope of European regulation implies a further contraction of the poker economy. We would hope that an ABI of at around $50 can nevertheless be maintained. If it is possible to “breakthrough” into the $200 SNGs, this should be comfortable, but luck will play a significant role here due to low volume.

Volume

Volume is unlikely to exceed 500 games per month on average, but so long as staking and coaching hours are substituted for playing hours this should not pose a threat to overall profitability. We would hope to achieve between $3-4/game inclusive of rakeback with volume in the range of 400-600 per month. Playing profits in the range of $20,000 will therefore be entirely satisfactory.

Coaching

The aim is to continue to offer a significant amount of coaching hours each month, ideally in the range of 15-30 hours.

Staking

The staking business introduced as a possible side-line in last year’s report has now become an established source of income. Going forward it will be necessary to ensure that running this business does not become too much of a time burden. There is a fine balance between having enough stakees to be a genuine going concern which adds to income, and so many that the administration time required prevents sufficient playing/coaching time. In an ideal world the three income streams will balance well so that playing assists high level coaching which in turn improves staking results.

17/9/2014


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Ramble
Joined: 17.11.2008

Nice update - I wish all year-end reports were as easy to read.

Congratulations on exceeding expectations - the board of directors can be real buggers to impress!


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zachrina
Joined: 05.12.2012

VWP - That should answer any more niggling questions competitors may have about your approach to business _thumbsup:


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MilanBurdych
Joined: 20.05.2008

gg

Tim, what ROI do u expect at those Spin and Gos gamble?


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Thanks, guys.

Originally posted by MilanBurdych
gg

Tim, what ROI do u expect at those Spin and Gos gamble?

Hi Milan :)

It's super hard to estimate, I think. I suppose there will be quite high ROI possible at first but this will drop heavily as people learn what to do. I have 10% but it's a super small sample of only 350 games and includes one big bink, without which it would be very modest.

I noticed a major increase in average skill level between first ~200 games and most recent games.

I would estimate that ~5% is possible for good post flop players if spin and go is a similar format to on FT, and assuming reasonably favourable distribution of prize pools (it's possible to get really terrible distribution ofc, whereby positive ROI will be impossible even if you are a genius!)


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