Tony's search for self ~ Leakfinder by Moshman ($60 9m turbos) released for Gold+!

you still playing this jackpots and twisters ?

Yes, surely I think Stars Spin & Go and FTP JP will be in the back seat, despite being avaliable at higher BIs than iPoker's €10: I feel that, in the 'equilibrium state', there will be way too many regs at Stars and FTP, just because they're too sensitive to the software quality. I'm afraid that even the attainable hourly will be the biggest on iPoker.

The Rio JP is up to €85K now, but I'm feeling too unwell now to grind for more than an hour or two a day, should somehow stop compulsively eating sugar and staying awake all night long.

I'm bumping the blog for participation in the 'Get Rich or Die Trying' promotion

Starting bankroll: $1300
Goal: $6500

I'm not that broke, but, alas, I have to cut my online poker allowance, partly because I want to save money to grind live PLO in Minsk in 2015 and shall need an extra liferoll for rent etc because, unfortunately, I can no longer rely on the generosity of the family

I've picked that bankroll size because 1) it's about €1000 (but 'My Currency' in PT4 is set to $ for rake accounting purposes), 2) actually, it's the current combined grand total of my two active poker accounts (+ the €90 needed to make use of iPoker Winter Freerolls), and it will be easier for me to track the winnings and losses by comparing cashier and PT4 data, and cashier balance data (calculated using the xe.com rate for the end of each week) will prevail in case of discrepancies caused by varying €-to-$ x-rates; 3) it's adequate for the stakes I haven't lost hope for beating.

I've enclosed initial cashier screenshots (made prior to playing under the promotion), and shall be collecting further weekly screenshots which will be available via PM upon moderator's / admin's request.

Speaking of, I'm intending the following stake limitations so far:

JP SnGs - all Mauis in the lobby (€5) with strict (2+ recreationals) table selection of Rios (€20);
Twister - €5, or maybe €10 for point earning purposes, but only at the beginning and the end of a session and only if PLO tables aren't looking good;
PLO - €0.10/0.20 because €0.25/0.50 doesn't look beatable enough to me;
Spin & Go (as an option in late November) - $7 because even $15s are looking a bit too reg-infested to me

The beauty is in that one single JP bink (incl. a 1000x €5 Twister, hence the goal sizing) will be enough to enter the HoF

Ready, set, go:

Here's my all-time Rio graph (nervous people are advised not to open the spoiler), and it's yet good-looking by regs' standards because the rake is 14.5% and iPoker cashback is huge (can go up to 75-80%+ for Titanium / Betfair VIP 13 / Ladbrokes King etc, leave alone for the leader of Top100, NoXz, who plays Rios as well as much higher BI tourneys and has well over 100%), I'm about breakeven after cashback... but the Rio games are now 5-reg because the JP is €100K. I surely wouldn't be afraid of playing games with a bit negative post-cbk pre-JP ROI if I were sure that I wouldn't need a few extra K for the real life in the near future

I have close to no sample in Mauis, so a graph for them would tell nothing.

Prepare to have a similar Sharkscope graph if you're going to step on the iPoker STT grounds

Conclusion: Tim64's recent 6-max turbo video has to be watched as a warm-up

Btw, the recent video about the money mindset by lechrumski - who used to make PLO videos in 2012 - is very relevant to me.

It doesn't tell anything besides well-known psychological truths imo (for more insight into blaming oneself vs external factors see e.g. 'The Road Less Traveled' by M. Scott Peck, M.D.* ), but can serve as a good intro for poker players who're yet dabbling in the subject.

I find it fair that happy people have exactly as much money as they truly want.

My brother has accumulated a relatively big net worth, excellent by Russian standards, and a family, but he's seen about half his hair turn grey, being a bit younger than 40; 4 years ago, he had only a few grey hairs. The high-stress job and the toddler son are taking a huge toll on him. To each their own, meh.

I clearly belong into the category of chronically poor people. So does most of my former university environment. There might be a connection between those, but some other factors, like heredity, might have contributed.

* As you might have guessed, I'm yet to finish reading this book

yo tonyyy ♦

Have you ever come close to jackpots?
Was reading your 2+2 thread about your life etc. can u give me the link cause I didnt manege to read it all the way but cant find it anymore

gl lad

Thanks! It's strange that you didn't find it by just searching for thrreads started by me... but anyway, I've sent you a PM there.

Originally posted by PmagicLchocoOballs
Have you ever come close to jackpots?

I once 'bubbled' €60K (had a series of 5 wins, prepared for the 6th very carefully, but no dice). That's a very specific experience, as you might guess, an inherent part of our 'job'.

I still prefer it to Twisters and Spin & Gos because there, high pressure moments occur suddenly. When playing Rios, one can keep track of winning series and avoid loading additional tourneys whenever it might potentially carry a danger of playing the decisive 6th tourney in the same set. It won't result in skipping too many Rios in the lobby because they kick off at a rather rare pace.

I don't think I'll care about it in Mauis, though; too many of them can and have to be loaded at once so that player points are accumulated at a suitable pace.

Have you ever realised that it's +EV to have a minraising range ~8+ deep on the bubble in 9-man turbo even as a massive chipleader (like with 7500 chips out of 13500 in play), when openpushing any two is better than folding anything, but good is the enemy of great?

I don't think it's a massive leak, though, worth less than 1% ROI, it seems.

Due to the fold equity the bubble generates for both the minraiser and the opponents, the GTO minraising range (all the other hands should be openshoved) is perfectly polarised between total trash (84o as a typical example) and premium hands like 77+, assuming that opponents don't flat (which, in reality, they do, so the question about the viability of a minraising range in the bubble owning mode remains open; but at least I've seen some feared regs have it).

The first test after a while - a 20x €5 Twister - with no dice. I think I was cbet/folding too often to a loose 'reg' (SB below, whom I had faced in Rios too) who was limpy pre but had 24% flop c/r, 45% fold to flop cbets.

iPoker - €4.65+€0.35 - NL (3 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 480 (VPIP: 30.79, PFR: 15.11, 3Bet Preflop: 3.96, Hands: 386)
BB: 510 (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
Hero (BTN): 510

SB posts SB 10, BB posts BB 20

Pre Flop: (pot: 30) Hero has 6♣ 7♦

Hero raises to 40, SB calls 30, BB calls 20

Flop: (120, 3 players) 7♠ 4♥ T♦
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 60 (too weak to valuebet, too strong to bluff -> check back and try to get to showdown?), SB raises to 160, fold, fold

iPoker - €4.65+€0.35 - NL (3 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 565 (VPIP: 31.08, PFR: 14.97, 3Bet Preflop: 3.85, Hands: 389)
BB: 505 (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
Hero (BTN): 430

3 players post ante of 5, SB posts SB 15, BB posts BB 30

Pre Flop: (pot: 60) Hero has 5♦ A♥

Hero raises to 60, SB calls 45, fold

Flop: (165, 2 players) 6♥ 6♠ J♣
SB checks, Hero bets 83 (the sizing is too big; ~AT+ would have SDV here, much like in a HUSnG, but the 5 is a bad kicker), SB raises to 500 and is all-in, fold

I think I should have still called (though not snapped) his limp/shove in the below hand, I guess he could be doing this with any pocket pair besides most probably AA (he would show limped QQ in a later hand), probably any Ax and strongish Kx... I had 38-40% vs this kind of range, just enough with the 3-to-5 pot odds offered.

iPoker - €4.65+€0.35 - NL (3 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 592 (VPIP: 31.23, PFR: 14.58, 3Bet Preflop: 3.67, Hands: 401)
Hero (BB): 908

2 players post ante of 5, SB posts SB 30, Hero posts BB 60

Pre Flop: (pot: 100) Hero has J♦ K♥

SB calls 30, Hero raises to 150, SB tank-raises to 587 and is all-in, fold

€7-10 worth of spews in a single tourney.

I had thought that playing a few tourneys would have been better than not playing at all tonight. Well, sometimes in the Twister / Spin & Go format, focus lapses can be too costly.

Tony when you get the chance, would like to hear your opinion on Spin & Go format active on Stars. Brake it down as much as possible but key things I am interested are :
- Actual edges in the game
- Ratio of regs vs recreationals and how it changes with buy ins
- Traffic for mid stakes
- Expected ROI pre RB without binking huge amount

I remembered that you do similar format just on IPoker so wonder what you think are advantages and disadvantages of Spin & Go's on Stars.

Appreciate it !

Hi Pedja, it's nice to see you visit the blog!

I've actually played some Spin & Go and FTP Jackpot tourneys at a variety of stakes, and there are a few differences from Twister.

- Actual edges in the game

Unlike Twister that has antes of 5 chips starting from the second blind level, Spin & Go and FTP JP tourneys have no antes, which makes stacks deeper, especially in the 2nd level, which must increase postflop edges.

Most of the time, one player is out in the 1st or 2nd level, so effective stacks HU are 15+ bb at the beginning and people who have an edge HU will most likely have an edge in the entire game; but it doesn't mean that there's no edge to be gained in the early (3-max) game, where there's room for postflop play and non-AI 3bets (whereas many opponents 3bet only all-in even in the 1st level).

Obv the prize structure is winner-takes-all, so there's no ICM edge, but some players misunderstand the looser dynamics stemming from this fact, and their tightness can be exploited.

In 2x tourneys, obv recs will 2bet-shove for 25 bb wider than Nash because of being tilted by the multiplier, while in high prize ones, they're tighter than optimal.

Those who understand German can watch Unam's live coachings, as well as a pretty good Gold video on €5 Twisters by Binda. It has also has been translated into Russian. The only video that's available in English is by tomsom87 (a 180-man reg who had however played a few hundred of them prior to recording).

- Ratio of regs vs recreationals and how it changes with buy ins

Unlike iPoker, where only those who add you as a buddy can be sought, Stars and FTP allow to search for everyone who hasn't opted out. Ideally, the process of looking both players up before cards are dealt should become an automated routine (I'm too lazy to write an AHK script for that), especially because a significant portion of regs aren't opted out and the number of their tables (which can go up to 6-8, I even noticed 13 once) can be seen. The time to act that opt-out regs (there are opt-out recs too, but only a few) take is also a huge tell about their number of tables and hence their style.

Most regs come from HU hypers, followed by 6-max hypers, followed by CAP NL. HU regs are obv to be feared, but CAP ones also do their homework on Nash ranges and also have an edge in 3-max postflop play. 6-max hyper regs are the least dangerous category because their autopilot has been tuned with ICM for years and it's hard for them to readjust it, that's why I say that people tend to be tighter than optimal.

There's no other way of measuring the reg-to-rec ratio than actually counting them, e.g. in a Notepad file (again, I'm too lazy). In my impression, 15s are way softer than 30s where all SNE chasers reside; but still there are high volume regs (milestone chasers) at the 15s; hence I'll go down to 7s when my iPoker bouns ends and see the situation there, I expect it to be significantly softer than 15s too.

I guess the same must apply for €5 vs €10 Twister, but I have no sample at the 5s yet, so can't tell. 10s seem not harder than Stars 15s.

I've never played FTP 50s at Euro evenings, so can't say how the presence of red pro contract chasers (high volume grinders topping Edge and Black Card leaderboards) affects the pool strength. But still FTP has no counterpart for SNE apart from those three red pro contracts awarded for 4 months, so I guess the softness of 50s is intermediate between Stars 15s and 30s, and 10s must be softer than Stars 15s.

- Traffic for mid stakes

Lol, even at the maximum stakes, tourneys start pretty instantly upon registration. Waiting times increase to 30-60 seconds at offpeak hours, but I assume that you don't grind then anyway, in particular, you sleep when Latins (incl. Mexican immigrants at Stars, whose presence is terrible; it's not that big a problem on iPoker) hit the tables.

One thing to remember at Stars/FTP is to register into one tourney at a time (possibly with intervals of only a few seconds) because the seating algorithm is dumb (first come - first served) and those regs who choose to enter two or more tourneys with one button press get seated against each other in multiple tourneys at a time. The iPoker seating algorithm is smart enough prevent to it, I never get the same pair of opponents there.

- Expected ROI pre RB without binking huge amount

The beauty and horror of this type of SnGs is that you have to rely on 'binks', especially at higher BI ones where regs' attainable ITMs drop below 37%.

Hence I wouldn't recommend playing at a stake level for which you have fewer than 200 BIs (that's Kelly BRM corresponding to ITM=36% at the midstakes with normal risk aversion; more cautious players exercise even tighter BRM).

The formula for converting ITM to pre-RB ROI at 7s+ is:

ROI% = ITM% * 2.88 - 100

(2.88 -> 2.85 for 3s, 2.79 for 1s).

All-in adjusted ITM from can be derived from adjusted chips net won:

ITM_Adj% = 100% * (Chips_Net_Adj + 500 * Tourneys) / (1500 * Tourneys)

Lottery SnG regs usually talk in terms of ITMs because there's so much confusion when people talk about ROIs: people talk about ROIs with or without 'binks', with or without RB, that would be too much confusion.

As ITMs grow as stakes get lower, I suspect that BRM should be even tighter because for, say, a multiple Supernova with 5.5% (post-RB) ROI (36% ITM) at the 15s is way more comfortable with them than with 30s where he has 4% (post-RB) ROI (35.5% ITM), and only a huge bankroll can justify taking a twice bigger risk for a 1.5 times bigger hourly. Again, I'm too lazy to crunch the numbers yet, but personally for myself, I've decided to stay away from the 30s, especially because I'll never attain the ROIs I'm talking about.

Note that, for Kelly considerations (cutoff bankrolls for moving up / down stake levels), life expenses are out of the equation as they don't depend on the buy-in size. For risk of ruin calculations, however, expenses must be deducted from RB, see below.

Beasts report 37% ITM at FTP 50s and Stars 15s, but I feel I'd attain it only in a fairy tale, I'm afraid one has to be a HU guru, crushing regs of all descents, to do it.

I'm more comfortable with talking about ROIs including binks. Those who have significant life expenses should, instead of excluding binks from consideration altogether (they do happen, and often suddenly), subtract expenses from rakeback when doing risk simulations (using e.g. the free SwongSim tool found in the interwebs).

E.g., if 6-tabling 15s (60 games an hour) for 170 hours a day, monthly rake is ~$6K, and FPPs + milestones (though the latter can't be relied upon until they're reached, hence the need for a $5K+ bankroll to survive while getting there) give $2.5K a month in RB; those who have to spend similar amounts monthly have to leave only pre-RB winnings in the BR and do risk simulations with RB=0%. Those who grind less with such expenses have to set 'negative rakeback'.

In particular, to just beat the game pre-RB in the very long run, 34.8% ITM is needed. Of course, the more the merrier, e.g. with 36% ITM, the risk of losing 300 or more BIs pre-RB from the start is about 5%.

An alternative is grinding less but focusing more and gaining a bigger ITM. With, say, 5K $15 games a month, ITM 37% (pre-RB ROI 6.5%) expenses $2.5K and hence 'negative RB' of -40%, the 5% risk BR size is 400 BIs.

That's what regs mean when they say that Spins aren't grindable. They're rather for rich people who're having trouble with maximising the value they squeeze out of their big BRs because HS games are tough, stakees set Draconian conditions and are undisciplined or sometimes run away with the money, but Spins are yet soft.

Thanks for reading to those who have reached the end of this Pedja-style rant.

Thank you Tony much appreciated for time and effort you put to respond!

I will read this numerous times but what I got from the 1st read was that
- Games are beatable pre RB
- You need huge BR and need to grind them heavy for variance to even out

It would be interesting to do calculation of 10000 hours played a year on 15s Spin & Go's for total number of games assuming that one would 6 table for example + the rake generated and RB % gained on Stars.
I would assume such grinder would hit 500k VPPs just from grinding and as far as ROI goes, any positive pre RB ROI can work there.

It might be worth switching to this format while it is still new and undiscovered - which is why I am curious about everything around it (same way regs switched to 6 max hypers and made lots of money from it in the beginning).

Thank you once again and will read it couple more times for sure!

Originally posted by IvicaIliev77
I will read this numerous times but what I got from the 1st read was that
- Games are beatable pre RB
- You need huge BR and need to grind them heavy for variance to even out

Right.

Originally posted by IvicaIliev77
It would be interesting to do calculation of 10000 hours played a year on 15s Spin & Go's for total number of games assuming that one would 6 table for example + the rake generated and RB % gained on Stars.
I would assume such grinder would hit 500k VPPs just from grinding and as far as ROI goes, any positive pre RB ROI can work there.

Well, there are merely 8760-8784 hours in a year; 500K VPPs can be earned by playing 151516 15s, as each of them awards 3.3 VPPs, which will take ~200 hours a month of 6-tabling or ~150 hours of 8-tabling.

Of course, the same number of 30s will be enough for SNE. However, Stars are silent about the 2016 VIP program; in particular, the 5 VPP/$ SNE multiplier might be cancelled in 2016, no one knows. The immediate RB from attaining SNE for the 1st time is ~55%, out of which, 11% are the 1M milestone, and one needs to not go broke until it's reached, and the RB from FPPs and smaller milestones along the way is 44%.

Whether to go for SNE is a tough decision... Moskvyak (a CAP coach in the Russian community) somehow has 37% adjusted ITM at the 30s after 1200 games (8-tabling). For him, it's not even close, he's determined to get SNE this year.

You see, it's hard for me to talk about attainable ROIs because I never beat any game, and Spins can't be tracked by Sharkscope; I can only read reports of best regs about their ROIs. There have been people 'crushing' Stars 15s, FTP 50s with 37% adj. ITM, Stars 7s, €10 Twisters and 10s at FTP with 38-39% adj. ITM; I've seen Moskvyak's results in his Russian blog today when writing this post and was stunned by his progress.

Another great response.
Sorry I meant 1000 instead of 10000 hours per year since the plan is to do 100 hours 10 months a year!

If you don't mind sharing some links regarding regs that currently play those games. I would like to follow their progress and insights as well.
Feel free to send them to me via Skype

Thanks Tony!

1000 hours at 15s (6-tabling) will be enough only for 200K VPPs, but that still won't be bad if you attain 36.5-37%+ adj. ITM after a few thousand test games, which I think you can do with the HU knowledge you've got.

GRoDT report for 21-26.10

15 tournaments
- $45
$1255
1 week

Every Monday, every participant must write in his blog a weekly report, including:
- number of played hands / tournaments
- weekly bankroll movements in USD or EUR
- Current bankroll
- How many weeks he has participated in the promotion

Graph

A poker-related rant:

Also, as the Asexual Awareness Week has just started, feel free to ask me anything about this orientation (and of course check out the FAQ at asexuality.org) as this topic has never been covered specifically at Pokerstrategy, it seems.

My version of FAQ / long story short (slight adult content alert!):

This October was another month I'd like to forget.

One slightly positive thing was that I bought individually molded earplugs that are supposed to prevent my neighbours from interrupting my sleep at nonstandard hours. Nevertheless, even these earplugs hurt too much

November dreams

I'm gonna pull out all the stops and restart playing €10 Twisters, plus almost all €20 Rios, plus PLO20 on select days.

Additionally, I have to earn a bit of VPPs/SPs again, so $15 Spin & Gos will be mixed in too (starting on the 3rd, $7 Spins are gonna have 6% rake, which is still fine, but is an additional incentive to start playing at the $15 limit where it's gonna be 5%... and where I'm probably seeing ghosts, there aren't too many good regs, and there will likely be even fewer after the change, and I'm quite safe).

It means that the bankroll of the selected size becomes more like a tankroll (don't repeat it at home with your entire net worth!), boosting my chance of winning the challenge at the first attempt from significantly smaller than 20% to almost 20%

GRoDT report 27.10-02.11

29 STTs
-$66
$1189
2 weeks

Graphs

Hopefully, a much bigger grind is awaiting this week, there's a Russian holiday on Tuesday when I can't miss the action

Hi Tony - hope everything is good with you. Good luck at tables.