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Originally posted by patrileo
1. la55i do you want Villain to hit his flush when you have two pairs? I'm missing something ...
We have a full house, or am I missing something? Are you debating about flop play? Apparently yes, so it is my bad. Still raising OTF is not the best option imo. Only hands that beat us will call. And yes I also think villain will donk small with a value hand (for example Ax).
Originally posted by la55i
Originally posted by patrileo
1. la55i do you want Villain to hit his flush when you have two pairs? I'm missing something ...We have a full house, or am I missing something? Are you debating about flop play? Apparently yes, so it is my bad. Still raising OTF is not the best option imo. Only hands that beat us will call. And yes I also think villain will donk small with a value hand (for example Ax).
Yeah I was debating about flop play. No problem, just a misunderstood.
I think that's the point because otherwise will continue calling without knowing were you're at.
well that's certainly interesting. one thing has to be said though, you will never know where you are at, let's say you raise and villain calls, which info did you get?
it's just a way ahead/way behind spot, so raising feels incorrect. as for the river, i think folding is better, but calling probably isn't that horrible
Originally posted by Tomaloc
well that's certainly interesting. one thing has to be said though, you will never know where you are at, let's say you raise and villain calls, which info did you get?
it's just a way ahead/way behind spot, so raising feels incorrect. as for the river, i think folding is better, but calling probably isn't that horrible
Hi Tomaloc, imo when villain calls your raise you know you have to give up your hand.
I think in the long run you'll save money.
well you could just say "i wanna invest x into this hand" instead and then you fold when he bets the river, same price but then you dont lose every time he doesnt fold to the raise
Preflop - SB is overcalling out of position, so he'd be even more incentivized to 3bet squeeze the top hands of his range here instead of just entering a 3 way pot out of position for sure. So the QQ+, AK are unlikely. CO should usually 3-bet these as well, but in position he can call them sometimes.
Flop - we are facing many potential high and medium ace hands (which have us crushed), perhaps strong overpairs by the cutoff... And also all pocket pairs 22-TT are in both their ranges. So AT, AJ, and sometimes AQ are there as well.
Suddenly, SB donks the flop. You have to act before the CO, do you think your hand has enough playability to call in this 3-way pot?
SB either has TT (which is crushing us), or an Ax (strongest overpairs would likely have squeezed pre, likely AK as well). Or he's trying to bluff with a lower pair that missed. Could be (less likely 3way).
If you think most of his range is bluffs, that he's very tight and doesn't have AJ- and would normally 3bet the high overpairs) you might be tempted to call once, but then - what about the CO who still has to act after you?
Also, your hand is too vulnerable, as you've seen, even getting a full house doesn't change the hands that beat us (SB is unlikely to have KK as explained). So it seems very hard to improve your hand. a K on the turn would still lose to all Ax hands... AND to TT. So you have no real hopes of improving. and so, not being able to improve, it'll be very difficult to call multiple streets here profitably almost no matter what hits. Both are cards - K and T, don't really improve our relative hand strength at all.
And all that before we add MR. CO who is still in the hand.
I think the flop call is just incorrect.
Turn - call is just lack of attention. The T didn't help your hand too much (or at all, if we assume QQ-KK would be 3-bet pre) . you lose to Ax before, you lose against them after. TT is just out of their range since it's not possible anymore, but it's only 1 combination out of many... you win against meium-low pocket pair bluffs before, you win against them after. So nothing changed. Calling again here means you think you still have the stronger hand.
River - I think your hand is just trash by now. You can only call river if you KNOW SB likes to barrel bluff like that (and this was 3-way on the flop, again... even more difficult, since it's more likely that others will have something).
Otherwise, easy river fold.
Originally posted by Tomaloc
well you could just say "i wanna invest x into this hand" instead and then you fold when he bets the river, same price but then you dont lose every time he doesnt fold to the raise
Altough if you raise you'll win the pot OTF x% times. By just calling and knowing your hand can't improve that much (great explanation from NoOneSpcl :f_drink:) you'll lose that same amount of money more than x% times because you don't have much showdown value.
As far as betting for information goes, it is extremely rare for it to be worth the price, you can use it as a tie-breaker if decisions are close, possibly by betting a little bit more than you would normally do. Then raising for information when you hold a bluff catcher is never a good play. To see this, you have to set up an EV-calculation, something that takes a little effort (and guess-work) to do. It seems that you want to raise just to ward off his bluffs. This is not a good idea either. Just congratulate him if he is double barreling on that board and takes you off your hand. Often enough, you will have Ax yourself to makes his double barrel suicidal.
Originally posted by YohanN7
As far as betting for information goes, it is extremely rare for it to be worth the price, you can use it as a tie-breaker if decisions are close, possibly by betting a little bit more than you would normally do. Then raising for information when you hold a bluff catcher is never a good play. To see this, you have to set up an EV-calculation, something that takes a little effort (and guess-work) to do. It seems that you want to raise just to ward off his bluffs. This is not a good idea either. Just congratulate him if he is double barreling on that board and takes you off your hand. Often enough, you will have Ax yourself to makes his double barrel suicidal.
I'll try to explain myself a little better.
If you put villain on A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J8s+,ATo+,KJo+,QTo+,JTo we have something like this OTF:
Board: Ac, Ad, Tc Dead:
Equity Win Tie Card
Hand 1 30.72 % 29.24 % 2.95 % KTo
Hand 2 69.28 % 67.80 % 2.95 % A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo
Now let's think (obviously this is all theoretical), with this range villain will fold ~40% OTF, which will earn us 0.55$.
From the other 60%, we'll be ahead ~30% of the time, and we can expect to win about 2.00$
The others 70% we'll be behind, and we'll lose 0.40$ if we fold OTR. If we do the math:
40% * 0.55$ + 18% * 2.00$ + 42% * (-0.40$) = + 0.41 $
However by calling OTF and OTT you'll only win 35% (including improvements) of the time, meaning you'll end up folding the river card. If you do improve, I doubt you'd call unless you hit another T, which is very unlikely. The chance of a T coming out on the river is about 2~4%, but let's say you call 10% of the times (Altough he probably won't bet if another T hits the board, but I might call you, but obviously not a pot bet). Math:
10% * 2.60$ + 90% * (-0.40$) = - 0.10$
That's why I think it is more profitable to raise here 
And do not estimate : let's say he will fold 40%.
Just see how many combos he will fold and see what portion of his range that is.
Originally posted by patrileo
Originally posted by YohanN7
As far as betting for information goes, it is extremely rare for it to be worth the price, you can use it as a tie-breaker if decisions are close, possibly by betting a little bit more than you would normally do. Then raising for information when you hold a bluff catcher is never a good play. To see this, you have to set up an EV-calculation, something that takes a little effort (and guess-work) to do. It seems that you want to raise just to ward off his bluffs. This is not a good idea either. Just congratulate him if he is double barreling on that board and takes you off your hand. Often enough, you will have Ax yourself to makes his double barrel suicidal.I'll try to explain myself a little better.
If you put villain on A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J8s+,ATo+,KJo+,QTo+,JTo we have something like this OTF:
Board: Ac, Ad, Tc Dead:Equity Win Tie Card
Hand 1 30.72 % 29.24 % 2.95 % KTo
Hand 2 69.28 % 67.80 % 2.95 % A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JToNow let's think (obviously this is all theoretical), with this range villain will fold ~40% OTF, which will earn us 0.55$.
From the other 60%, we'll be ahead ~30% of the time, and we can expect to win about 2.00$
The others 70% we'll be behind, and we'll lose 0.40$ if we fold OTR. If we do the math:40% * 0.55$ + 18% * 2.00$ + 42% * (-0.40$) = + 0.41 $
However by calling OTF and OTT you'll only win 35% (including improvements) of the time, meaning you'll end up folding the river card. If you do improve, I doubt you'd call unless you hit another T, which is very unlikely. The chance of a T coming out on the river is about 2~4%, but let's say you call 10% of the times (Altough he probably won't bet if another T hits the board, but I might call you, but obviously not a pot bet). Math:
10% * 2.60$ + 90% * (-0.40$) = - 0.10$
That's why I think it is more profitable to raise here
So, I said EV calculations involve guess-work. True that is, but it should not include pure fantasies, like the one about his range (he bet 3-handed!) and that you still have equity if he calls a raise and that he will continue with a senseless 3-barrel until the river with all his bluffs.