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QQ can i call on turn?

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HiImOdds
Joined: 19.11.2015

Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $1.51 (75.5 bb)
BB: $3.29 (164.5 bb)
UTG: $2.37 (118.5 bb)
MP: $12.16 (608 bb)
CO: $1.26 (63 bb)
Hero (BTN): $4.05 (202.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with T T
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.06, SB folds, BB raises to $0.19, Hero calls $0.13

Flop: ($0.39) 4 9 6 (2 players)
BB bets $0.36, Hero calls $0.36

Turn: ($1.11) Q (2 players)
BB bets $1.04, Hero folds

Results:

Spoiler

$1.11 pot ($0.06 rake)
Final Board: 4 9 6 Q
BB mucked and won $1.05 ($0.50 net)
Hero mucked T T and lost (-$0.55 net)

Can i call his turn bet?


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5 replies

I hate these spots. In higher limits, I can expect the BB to defend his blind against a BU raise with so many hands it would be a possible call against their range IMO.

in the lower (0.02 and 0.05) limits, most people hardly defend their BB against a steal even a fraction of the time they should.
against an unknown, I would fold, since in my experience (which isn't sufficiently extensive, I'll admit) the average player in these limits simply doesn't 3-bet non-premium hands often enough.
That, combined with the second barrel in a 3-bet pot, calling would mean you're not only likely to face a very strong range on the river, but also facing a 3rd barrel and playing for stacks on the river.

Against a known player, their 3-bet vs. steal stat needs to be taken into account.

w34z3l 's video on blind defense ranges is really helpful as far as showing the ranges people should be defending with.
However, as stated, no one in these limits does that, even against a very loose BU.

Quick range assessment:
Can't read much from his flop bet, since it doesn't take a good player to know you have a wider range as the button, and in a 3-bet pot he can definitely have a hand already, so the conti bet could mean anything.

Scenario 1: If he 3-bets only top holdings like AJ+,JJ+,KQ, you have 38% equity against that range. That means it seems like you could call the turn.
Problem is, 2nd barrel on turn changes his range. Now most of the time he has a made hand, and you're crushed against any made hands within that range, so you cannot call.

Scenario 2: Even if he 3-bets a bit wider - TT+,AT+,KJ+, or a bit wider than that. Your equity against his overall range improves, but your equity against made hands in this range is still horrendous.

I think you need his range to contain more made hands which you beat here, since the 2nd barrel tends to imply that most of the time.
IF, however, you know he defends his blinds religiously, then his range will contain lots of low pairs that hit the board and you'll find it much easier to call here.

So, if you know he's sirbluffalot or that he defends the BB a LOT, sure, call.
But in general you need to have sufficient equity against his possible made hands (which, if he defends a lot, can be rather weak).

The more general idea is that TT is a good hand to call a blind defense 3bet against a good BB who defends often, but an annoying spot against a tight BB - you'll likely be behind his range, and since the vast majority of the time the board will contain overcards to TT, and you will not know where you stand at all (and his range hits those overcards well... since he's tight).

Of course you can't just fold TT on the button to a 3bet every time... You just need to watch out against tight blinds and consider sometimes folding (or even 4-bet bluffing) against players who 3-bet too tightly.
Did you know anything about this player? or was it your first hand/one of your first hands?

Readless, I would fold to the 2nd barrel here most of the time.


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HiImOdds
Joined: 19.11.2015

Unfortunately, I have no stats on him. I think folding is the correct choice here, people at nl2 almost never bluff


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

His bets are close to pot so turn is a fold, imo.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I think turn is a clear fold.


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Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

I doubt he could have shot the second bluff barrel at nl2 given he's regular player. After all, both call and fold might give you significant benefits.


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