SH Rush Trips facing x/r river

Well played imo.

River check-raise bluffs aren't that common. Only better hands can raise for value. The only draw got there. Odds are 6.42:2.55 = 2.5:1. We have many better X7, and 16 straights to catch bluffs with. I'd say it is a very clear GTO fold without reads. (GTO is pretty easy to calculate for the last bet in isolation. Villain must succeed with his bluff more than 50% and T♠:7♠: is not in the top 50% of bluff catchers)

I do not think villain is bluffing. Fold is ok.

Check raising the river with a bluff seems very unlikely here. I would fold.

Originally posted by la55i
Well played imo.

What are you expecting to beat when we call on the river?

Originally posted by MJPerry

Originally posted by la55i
Well played imo.

What are you expecting to beat when we call on the river?

I approached this by thinking what villain can reasonably have. Maybe he has some overpairs which he plays like this. Some lower 7x hands. I think straights are not so likely. Would he call pre and call 2 streets with 68, maybe. Would he call 2 streets with 44? Would he raise with 55 or 22? It is also a possibility that he doesn't know what he is doing and tries to make a fishy bluff. We have to be right only 25% of the time if we call this.

Instead of thinking what can we beat I thought what can he really have here. Maybe I approached this from a wrong perspective.

No, the approach is right. But you have to think what hands are calling flop and turn and then xr the river on this paired board. Not that many bluffs or missed draws. There are better 7x possible.

Originally posted by la55i

Originally posted by MJPerry

Originally posted by la55i
Well played imo.

What are you expecting to beat when we call on the river?

I approached this by thinking what villain can reasonably have. Maybe he has some overpairs which he plays like this. Some lower 7x hands. I think straights are not so likely. Would he call pre and call 2 streets with 68, maybe. Would he call 2 streets with 44? Would he raise with 55 or 22? It is also a possibility that he doesn't know what he is doing and tries to make a fishy bluff. We have to be right only 25% of the time if we call this.

Instead of thinking what can we beat I thought what can he really have here. Maybe I approached this from a wrong perspective.

I don't think 68 is a "maybe". Unknowns, as a general rule, aren't folding draws to reasonably-sized bets. However it's debatable whether he's check-raising river with it.

I agree it's a call just because the line makes little sense, he could be doing it for value with something like 87s and we're getting a good price; I just wondered what you were thinking.

Hmm, the line is strange indeed. I change my mind. Curiosity rarely kills a cat. Call. For the cost of a cheese burger you get a wealth of info on this guy:coolface:

One more thought about this. If the opponent can play, then it is such a clear GTO fold that there is no issue really. The thing that is luring here is that the pot odds are inviting. The pot odds are not the thing to consider versus a competent opponent when facing a raise as opposed to a straight bet. The thing to consider is the opponents investment in a possible bluff. One should adjust the bluff catching frequency to that rather than to the pot odds.

(As a matter of fact, one should always consider the opponents investment; for straight bets, the investment calculation coincides with the pot odds calculation for the calldown frequency, while in the case of a raise it does not.)

Make up your mind already. ..