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3 barrel K high FD vs fish?

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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 115.2 BB
BB: 100 BB
CO: 105 BB
Hero (BTN): 101 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♥ Q♥

CO calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 3 BB

Flop: (9.5 BB, 2 players) 2♣ 5♥ 3♥
CO checks, Hero bets 6.8 BB, CO calls 6.8 BB

Turn: (23.1 BB, 2 players) 7♠
CO checks

Spoiler

, Hero bets 16.5 BB, CO calls 16.5 BB

River: (56.1 BB, 2 players) J♠
CO checks, Hero bets 40.2 BB, CO raises to 77.7 BB and is all-in, fold

CO wins 130.4 BB

the fish is unknown.

On the river he can have Ax, 5x which could fold. What do you think?


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14 replies
GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

I would bet 50% pot, because fish will likely call all Ax on flop and turn and fold river, plus missed fd, which should be enough FE. Off course give up vs fish can hardly be mistake, since we know that fish is overcalling on average.

Your big bet sizes on all streets is hardly optimal vs fish when you are bluffing imo, so I would bet flop 33% pot, turn 50%, river 50%.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Betting half pot on turn is ok. Betting river when we miss is not.


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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

I would bet 50% pot, because fish will likely call all Ax on flop and turn

what hands might fold on turn after 50 % 2nd barrel?

I use bigger sizing because to such small sizing I do not expect him to fold even 3x often.


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Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

You could have spared yourself that river, especially considering the stake you play on. Fishes are not likely to fold on low boards when they don't feel money they lose.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I think I would check flop.


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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

Originally posted by la55i
I think I would check flop.

I was also thinking about it, but I gues we need to still cbet because he might have some cards which have 22% equuity, so at least those to fold. Like 89. For those we could use small sizing, 50% is enough, or maybe even less we need.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c

Originally posted by la55i
I think I would check flop.

I was also thinking about it, but I gues we need to still cbet because he might have some cards which have 22% equuity, so at least those to fold. Like 89. For those we could use small sizing, 50% is enough, or maybe even less we need.

I think both are valid options. 2 barreling sounds good too. Maybe it is even a little bit better?


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

cbetting vs the limper is ok. We will not get much folds but we will build a pot when we hit.


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double2
Joined: 04.11.2008
Heinejen
Joined: 14.08.2007

i wouldnt check flop because vs fish i for sure want to built pot with such a strong draw in case i hit. and since any Ax makes a gutshot which fish defenitely call 2 times. i would just tripple it. any PP are only 6 combos whereas any Ax with all offsuited combos like AT are 16 combos alone. and a lot of fish like to call 2 times and hope to hit their gutshots, 2pairs overcards or whatever and if they miss they fold to third barrel. they only have such a high went to sd on those limits because players usually not tripple barrel much + they dont valuebet thin or bluff themselves. but they have usually high folds to river cbet stats.


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GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c

I would bet 50% pot, because fish will likely call all Ax on flop and turn

what hands might fold on turn after 50 % 2nd barrel?

I use bigger sizing because to such small sizing I do not expect him to fold even 3x often.

vs 50% pot fish is likely going to fold very similar range as vs 3/4 pot, which is the reason why I would bet 50%. I expect fish to fold hands like JQ, KQ that floated flop vs both sizes (I think fish would call any pair twice vs any size except maybe overbet). It is off course all assumption, if you think that you get enough more FE with 3/4 comparing to 1/2 size so that your turn bet EV is higher, then ok. I used some database analyses for different bet sizes, and the result was that fish (but also regs) defend vs turn cbet very similar range vs 50% and 75%, so that 50% should be higher. I did that analyses on party poker, so it could be different on other networks. If you dont have any analyses but pure guess, then it is a gamble.


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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

I expect fish to fold hands like JQ, KQ that floated flop vs both sizes (I think fish would call any pair twice vs any size except maybe overbet).

thats interesting, cause I did not expect even fish to have such hand on turn, unless its draws. But if those are without draws, then of course 50% is enough.

I used some database analyses for different bet sizes, and the result was that fish (but also regs) defend vs turn cbet very similar range vs 50% and 75%, so that 50% should be higher.

need analisis - what do they have on turn. Just not sure can we see them, casue if htey call KQ, they call it to bluff later. So then we need to c/c turn and c/c river if he bets again - such filter. Once we 2 or 3 barrel and he folds - we do not see his range.


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wealthybrainer
Joined: 01.05.2013

how to filter hands by player's stats?


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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

Originally posted by wealthybrainer
how to filter hands by player's stats?

maybe write custom filter script if using pokertracker :)

configure > statistics

had not tried this


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