What would you do if?

Hi dangermowse3,
Welcome to PokerStrategy.com

Originally posted by dangermowse3
Hypothetical question, to which the answer is NOT "that's impossible". Because I'm living proof that it very much is.

So what would you ACTUALLY DO, if for 20 years and over 12 million hands of tournament poker (mostly SnG) you could never win a single hand?

Well it is not impossible, but it is so improbable that it defies credence.

Well, for what I would actually do — I would have quit poker permanently after a couple of weeks.

Have a look at the poker variance calculator.
That's for cash games — but note the difference between the best and the worst runs. Do you think that the player running that bad would continue?
If so, why would they?

Here's the link to the tournament variance calculator.
https://www.primedope.com/tournament-variance-calculator/

I once programmed a simulation of flipping a coin 1000 times.
I then ran that simulation a bunch of times (sorry, I don't remember how many).
On two of those runs, it was all heads or all tails twice.

99 vs two overcards is close to a flip:
       Equity     Win     Tie
BU     54.39%  54.20%   0.20% { 99 }
BB     45.61%  45.41%   0.20% { ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

99 vs one overcard has nearly a 70% advantage.
       Equity     Win     Tie
BU     70.51%  70.28%   0.23% { 99 }
BB     29.49%  29.26%   0.23% { A8s-A2s, K8s-K2s, Q8s-Q2s, J8s-J2s, T8s-T2s, A8o-A2o, K8o-K2o, Q8o-Q2o, J8o-J2o, T8o-T2o }

So while your hypothetical situation may be possible it is highly unlikely.
What is even more unlikely is that any rational person would continue to play with losses of that magnitude.

Cheers,
VS

I'm already a member since like 2011 just keep forgetting log in details.

Lol a variance calculator claims black or red can hit 1000 times in a row? The world record for that in reality is all of 32. I've always been suspect of them so that pretty much confirms it.

The fact you'd quit after just 2 weeks shows that you've never had a single spell in your life that long without winning at least 20% of hands. Utterly incredible.

Originally posted by dangermowse3
I'm already a member since like 2011 just keep forgetting log in details. [1]

Lol a variance calculator claims black or red can hit 1000 times in a row? The world record for that in reality is all of 32. I've always been suspect of them so that pretty much confirms it.

The fact you'd quit after just 2 weeks shows that you've never had a single spell in your life that long without winning at least 20% of hands. Utterly incredible.

black or red? Are you referring to roulette? The variance calculators I linked to were poker variance calculators.

There's a world record for black or red consecutive occurrences? Please provide a link.[2]
You use the word "incredible" which literally means "not possible to be believed".
If you read my blog you'll find that I recently had a 3month downswing. I don't actually know what percentage of hands I won.
However, since my VPIP is typically around 25%, and I win maybe half of those, I can truthfully say that In my life I have won less than 20% of hands dealt.
That downswing came after years of playing, and so didn't have near the effect it would have had if I had just joined pokerstars and in the course of 3 months lost $700.

Your opening post asks what I would do. I told you that I would have quit after a couple of weeks. I've played other games and quit after less than that.
What I find amazing is that you report:

Originally posted by dangermowse3
Hypothetical question, to which the answer is NOT "that's impossible". Because I'm living proof that it very much is.

So what would you ACTUALLY DO, if for 20 years and over 12 million hands of tournament poker (mostly SnG) you could never win a single hand? What if every single 99 you raised in 20 years was met by at least one overcard, and 99% of the time the whale defending had it and wasn't ever letting that muvva go no matter what shite came on the t&r?

So you would have us believe that you played SnGs for 20 years and never won a single hand?

[1] I suggest that you create a customer support ticket Follow the link then click the beside "Open a new ticket"
Give them all the details you can, such as your username, the date when you joined and so on. They may be able to recover old accounts.
[2] I found this: https://www.roulette17.com/stories/record-reds-blacks-in-a-row/

Reassess my approach to 10evbb/100 in SnG's on Stars? What's yours?. interesting frist post btw

In further as I'm unable to post my long story, I've never stopped studying, have years long RIO memberships among others.

Originally posted by dangermowse3
Reassess my approach to 10evbb/100 in SnG's on Stars? What's yours?. interesting frist post btw

In your first post in this thread, you claim to be living proof that someone can play 12 million hands over 20 years and not win a single one.
If that is the case, how could you have a 10bb/100 winrate?

Your comments about the red/black of roulette got me curious though.
After 7 or 8 1-million spin simulations I encountered several times where the max streak was 17 or more, and in one it hit 25.
I did those simulations in Excel, which is slow. when I get a chance I'll switch to python, which should be able to run 100 million spins easily.

I'll let you know.

What do you have to do to be able to post a pic? I've explained it all but can't post it.

Originally posted by dangermowse3
What do you have to do to be able to post a pic? I've explained it all but can't post it.

As a basic member, you cannot post images or links.
If you put the image on an image hosting site — like imgur for example — then put the URL in a post but change the https:// part to htxxs-\\ the system won't recognise it as a URL. When I — or another mod — sees it, we can fix it.

That works, and we're happy to do it as long as it doesn't become a habit.
To find out more about the points system, see: https://www.pokerstrategy.com/status-points/

See if I can get my old account back first.

Here is the results of the run of 100,000,000,000 spins
Note 3 streaks of 32 consecutive, and even one of 35.
There was one streak of 32 in the first 10,000,000,000
What does it tell us?
Mainly that "I never win a flip" is just plain silly
The numbers in the first section are just the longest streak of that colour after that many "spins"
The second table lists all streak lengths, and how often they occurred.
Just for the fun of it, and if there were no betting limits, and a player was playing the martingale strategy, it may have been necessary at one point to bet 4,294,967,296 — so you can see why casinos have an upper betting limit.

In my 20s I went to Reno with 1200 dollars for a week. The idea was to use Martingale playing blackjack.
The bets were 2,4,8,16,32,64 and 128. The cap at the table was $200, so if you lose the $128 bet you've lost a total of $254 with no way to recoup it. If at any time you win, you go back to betting $2. This worked well. I got up to $32 a few times, but the time I had to bet $64 got me so nervous I stopped after I won it.

I don't remember now how much Mrs Vorpal and I won over the week, but most of it came from other means.

iterations:100,000,000,000 interval:10,000,000,000, est rate:743,581.342/sec eta:2023-03-01 21:08:05.337583
   now         iter       red black green     et         rate       eta
07:46:41               0   0     0     0    0.00     743,581.3 11:30:49
11:37:21  10,000,000,000  29    32     7 13840.78     722,502.8 15:28:02
15:40:18  20,000,000,000  29    32     7 14576.94     686,014.9 19:43:15
19:28:33  30,000,000,000  31    32     8 13694.64     730,212.7 23:16:48
23:18:29  40,000,000,000  31    32     8 13796.45     724,823.9 03:08:26
03:04:31  50,000,000,000  31    32     8 13562.06     737,351.3 06:50:33
06:46:49  60,000,000,000  31    35     8 13337.82     749,747.9 10:29:07
10:43:35  70,000,000,000  31    35     8 14205.63     703,946.0 14:40:21
14:46:45  80,000,000,000  31    35     9 14590.31     685,386.5 18:49:55
18:44:45  90,000,000,000  32    35     9 14279.89     700,285.3 22:42:45
22:27:32 100,000,000,000  32    35     9 13366.80     748,121.9 02:10:19
iterations:100,000,000,000
run duration 14:40:51 (52851.327825 seconds) avg rate:1892100.050
longest streak: 35
 len      red         black       green
    1  13121548776  13121416369 4723783588
    2   6215413581   6215567070  248590146
    3   2944128275   2944122840   13084388
    4   1394596007   1394596948     690212
    5    660674416    660581329      36605
    6    312901077    312901221       1857
    7    148211463    148215145        105
    8     70199747     70205560          6
    9     33257988     33258595          1
   10     15747408     15749739          0
   11      7460854      7462216          0
   12      3533625      3536138          0
   13      1673936      1673584          0
   14       793053       793073          0
   15       376131       376428          0
   16       177900       177974          0
   17        84414        84184          0
   18        40103        39770          0
   19        18838        18915          0
   20         8893         9014          0
   21         4317         4337          0
   22         1912         2120          0
   23          895          999          0
   24          472          463          0
   25          219          205          0
   26           91          105          0
   27           46           51          0
   28           21           25          0
   29           11           12          0
   30            7            5          0
   31            4            4          0
   32            1            2          0
   33            0            0          0
   34            0            0          0
   35            0            1          0

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
I don't remember now how much Mrs Vorpal and I won over the week, but most of it came from other means

Go on...

Originally posted by H0witzer

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
I don't remember now how much Mrs Vorpal and I won over the week, but most of it came from other means

Go on...

On the last night were were there, after dinner we went from casino to casino and in each one we played a table game we had never played. $20 down, and leave when it is gone or when it has doubled.
 Red Dog
 3-Card Monty
 Pai Gow poker
Maybe others. Don't remember.
We would find a table with no-one there, and explained to the dealer that we had never played this, but here's 20 bucks, let's go. The dealers were very kind and patient, and gave us a few strategy hints and so on. At every casino we won our $20 thanked — and tipped — the dealer and moved on. I'll have to check with Mrs Vorpal, but I think we won a hundred bucks that night.