K9s deep OOP

it is a big call on flop. He appears to have something.

I think he is trying to call to see if a scary card would come, since turn card doesn't complete, he decides to charge max for draws then. could be against a set.

he represented strength by his call on flop. I would hv just chk and fold turn.

Hello,

I would just check/fold the flop. This flop hits his range pretty well and we have a lot better hands to bet with here.

As played, I would give up on the turn, since the card doesn't help us in any way.

Best,
Plamen

Say we're vs this range on the flop:

Board: 8♠6♣J♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
CO     21.98%  21.67%   0.31% { Kh9h }
BU     78.02%  77.71%   0.31% { JJ-77, AQs-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, AQo-ATo, KQo }

144 hands so far. With how much I bet I need to be successful ~42% of the time.

So with hands of at least BDFD value we get total of 111:

Board: 8♠6♣J♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
CO     21.60%  21.32%   0.28% { Kh9h }
BU     78.40%  78.12%   0.28% { TT, 77, JdJh, JdJs, JhJs, 9d9s, 9d9c, 9s9c, 8d8h, 8d8c, 8h8c, QTs, 54s, AsQs, AcQc, KsQs, KcQc, AdJd, AhJh, AsJs, KdJd, KsJs, QdJd, QhJh, QsJs, AsTs, AcTc, KsTs, KcTc, JdTd, JhTh, JsTs, As9s, Ac9c, Jd9d, Js9s, Td9d, Ts9s, Tc9c, Ad8d, Ah8h, Ac8c, Td8d, Th8h, Tc8c, 9d8d, 9c8c, As7s, Ac7c, 8d7d, 8h7h, 8c7c, Ad6d, Ah6h, As6s, 7d6d, 7h6h, 7s6s, As5s, Ac5c, 6d5d, 6h5h, 6s5s, As4s, Ac4c, As3s, Ac3c, As2s, Ac2c, AdQc, AhQc, AsQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AdJh, AdJs, AhJd, AhJs, AsJd, AsJh, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs, AdTc, AhTc, AsTc, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs, KdQc, KsQc, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs }

He would probably fold 22% immediately. However he may still fold stuff like As2s or AcQd so we can count on a bit greater FE. I agree that cbet alone on the flop isn't profitable so c\f is the safe line for sure.

However let's consider 2nd barrel. I need ~40% once again. I assume he would continue with draws, TPs, second pockets. If he folds eights we almost have necessary FE. If not, we have about 30% FE as he continues with 76 of 109 hands:

Board: 8♠6♣J♣ 4♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
CO     10.62%  10.62%   0.00% { Kh9h }
BU     89.38%  89.38%   0.00% { TT, JdJh, JdJs, JhJs, 9d9s, 9d9c, 9s9c, 8d8h, 8d8c, 8h8c, AsQs, AcQc, KsQs, KcQc, AdJd, AhJh, AsJs, KdJd, KsJs, QdJd, QhJh, QsJs, AsTs, AcTc, KsTs, KcTc, QsTs, QcTc, JdTd, JhTh, JsTs, As9s, Ac9c, Jd9d, Js9s, Td9d, Ts9s, Tc9c, Ad8d, Ah8h, Ac8c, Td8d, Th8h, Tc8c, 9d8d, 9c8c, As7s, Ac7c, 8d7d, 8h7h, 8c7c, As6s, 7s6s, As5s, Ac5c, 6s5s, Ac4c, 5c4c, As3s, Ac3c, As2s, Ac2c, AdJh, AdJs, AhJd, AhJs, AsJd, AsJh, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs }

If he raises we can safely fold. If he calls we can consider 3rd barrel as he probably has weak range given the board is wet. I agree it's a marginal situation with no immediate profit from 1 or 2 bets but is it a good board to consider all 3 barrels as when opponent is passive he's probably weak and will have hard time to call all 3 barrels. Or would you better choose spots with some additional pot equity like BDFD+OC? I mean does our hand matters that much in such spots when we rely mainly on FE?

Hello,

First of all, I think we should put him a lot bigger range in BVB. He seems to be calling a lot, and I doubt he doesn't call something like A9o for example, or more connectors.

Overall, on this flop we have very little equity, we are OOP and it hits his range pretty well. We don't know anything about his postflop tendencies and most importantly we don't need to fight for every pot postflop.
Having these said, we should just check and fold against aggression, just because there are better hands to bet with in this situation.

Betting this turn wouldn't help much, as the card doesn't really help us much and it brings some new draws so we can expect quite a lot of call here as well.

Planning to bet the river might be pretty bad, just because if the card is lets say a 2h (which is completely blank) I don't think he is going to fold a lot considering that all of the draws missed.