Hi guys, vuciitis posted this hand at the Hand Discussions forum and I think it's a good example for discussion some pre flop concepts regarding AK.
Here is the hand:
Originally posted by vuciitis
Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 playersBTN: $29.89 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 18, 3B: 13, AF: 5,0, Hands: 169
Hero (SB): $10.00 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 17, 3B: 4, AF: 2,5, Hands: 31055
BB: $23.38 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 16, 3B: 4, AF: 2,9, Hands: 510
UTG: $14.44 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 18, 3B: 6, AF: 5,5, Hands: 124
MP: $14.06 - VPIP: 26, PFR: 18, 3B: 6, AF: 1,9, Hands: 180
CO: $10.77 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 16, 3B: 2, AF: 7,5, Hands: 144Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with A
K
1 fold, MP raises to $0.30, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.30, Hero raises to $1.30, BB raises to $23.38, 2 folds, Hero ???So do we have 42% equity here considering:
1) its a squeezed pot and his range MIGHT be wider
2) he has 9% 4bet range (8 samples)
One thing we have to realize about AK pre flop is that most of its EV comes from when we take the pot without a showdown. Let me give a simple concrete example:
Villain CO opens 3bbs, Hero in BB with AK 3bets to 10bbs, CO 4bets to 22bbs, Hero shoves.
If you think a bit about this example, we actually want villain to fold right? We are not expecting that Villain shows AQ almost ever, correct? So we are never a favourite when we get called.
(by the way, this is why terms like "value 3bet" sometimes are imperfect concepts)
So, does this fact means that we are incorrect to shove? Or even that we are incorrect to 3bet in the first place?
Not in the slightest way.
We can't ignore the huge chunk of EV we have when we do 5bet shove AK and get a fold, which will happen more often that it should because of the blocker effect (it blocks a very decent amount of KK/AA combos in villain's 4bet range). And of course, when we do get called we have very decent equity (which does not happen with AQ for instance).
So, getting back to the hand from vuciitis, if we are denied the possibility from generating some fold equity (or fold EV) then we should be extra careful when playing our AK. Just because AK is perceived as a strong hand pre flop that does not mean we can't be very wrong stacking off with it in certain spots. And I believe this is one of those.
BB is a tightish reg cold shove 4betting after a MP open and a squeeze. His range certaintely has all combos of KK+ and probably not all the combos of AK/QQ. Nevermind worse hands like JJ or AQ. And against that range our AK is just doing badly, despite our blockers.
So, the wise Mallard duck has some useful advice for you:
