Villain = 16/8/2/21/108 hands (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTSD)
When Villain check raises the flop although I had no stats for his check raise % I thought it was unlikely that he check raises the flop w/ better than TPTK here. I didn't think it was very likely that limp calls pre w/ JJ+ or 2X, despite him being Tight and passive(ish) - AF of 2 isnt that aggressive for FR is it? At this point I put my opponent on weaker TX or small pair 22-TT
Since I was IP i thought that I should call one time and re-evaluate on the turn. Although the turn brings some draws I am not too scared about checking behind because I figure I am way ahead of smalls pairs and weaker TX or way behind 2X and TT/88 and maybe a slowplayed JJ+.
My plan was to just check/fold turn and river to big bets especially if the board develops badly. He bets .70 on the river giving me 5:1 so I felt like he could show up with TX sometimes and I get to see what he's check raising the flop with and I dont have to be right that often to make it profitable only 1 in 6 times and I only need 14% equity against his range.
Which I guess is something like this:
www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 2d2hTc8h6s
Equity Win Tie
MP3 18.29% 16.57% 1.71% { 22+, A7s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+ }
CO 81.71% 80.00% 1.71% { AcTs }
PokerStars - $0.05 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
MP: $5.61
MP+1: $6.17
Hero (CO): $6.20
BTN: $2.23
SB: $2.08
BB: $4.94
UTG: $2.07
UTG+1: $2.95
SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05
Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero has T♠ A♣
fold, fold, MP calls $0.05, MP+1 calls $0.05, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+1 calls $0.25
Flop: ($0.72, 2 players) T♣ 2♥ 2♦
MP+1 checks, Hero bets $0.52, MP+1 raises to $1.04, Hero calls $0.52
Turn: ($2.80, 2 players) 8♥
MP+1 checks, Hero checks
River: ($2.80, 2 players) 6♠
MP+1 bets $0.70, Hero calls $0.70
MP+1 shows 2♠ 2♣ (Four of a Kind, Twos)
Hero mucks T♠ A♣ (Two Pair, Tens and Twos)
MP+1 wins $4.00