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[Closed] PLO10 QTT9ss

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iPoker - $0.10 PL Hi - Omaha - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

Hero (SB): $11.18
BB: $11.17
BTN: $14.45

Hero posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has T♠ 9♥ Q♣ T♣

fold, Hero raises to $0.30, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.60, 2 players) 4♦ 6♣ J♣
Hero bets $0.40, BB calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.40, 2 players) 9♦
Hero bets $1.00, BB raises to $4.40, Hero?


4 replies
Ribbo
Joined: 25.06.2010

All you can do is fold. You're behind and you don't have enough outs to call plus you have no implied odds. You've got about 15 outs, a third of the deck and you're out of position. I think you have to let it go here.

But that's the problem with bloating a pot out of position like this, you're never going to be in a pretty spot when the other guy plays back at you.


Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

There are always implied odds. :)

If opponent has a set, he doesn't like to fold to a small river bet. If straight or flush comes, and hero bets like 1/4 pot, he might think that it's a bluff. So he will call.

Hero needs 33% equity, and he has about 30% against a set (JJxx). Pot will be about $10 with just $6 left in stacks. I think that hero can call the turn, and valuebet for about $2,50-$3 when he hits. Very hard for opponent to fold his set. And if we assume that hero will get those implied odds, the call comes +EV.

I don't know anything about villain, but if he is typical micro fish, that's a standard line for flopped set.


Ribbo
Joined: 25.06.2010

Implied odds is based on one fact alone, that you will play the hand perfectly.

Implied odds assumes you will always bet when ahead and always fold when behind. This isn't true (especially for omaha) so you cannot rely on it to justify making calls that are clearly bad.

Example: You hold A :heart:J :heart: xx on a board of Q :heart: 8 :club:7 :club: 6 :heart: . The river is 7 :heart: , can you correctly bet/fold 100% of the time on this river when ahead or behind? Opponent could have had a set or a straight when he bet the turn so we can't be clear what we should be doing.


Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

In my equities that is counted. It's the equity against JJxx so if the board pairs hero knows he is behind when villain bets.

I mean, how can it be a clear and easy fold, when you need 33% for call and you have 30%? You need about 5bb for implied odds to make the call +EV.

That example that Ribbo gave is whole different story. Now we have just about half a pot for river, and opponents hand is pretty much face up. If there are some reasons to believe that opponent doesn't have a set there, I am sure OP would have mentioned about it. And in Ribbo's example, when you decide to call with implied odds on turn, you need to count your outs right. 7:h is not one of them, as it pairs the board. If you only have a flush draw, then you have 7 clean outs. And base your calculations for that.

If this is fold, then how much you need to have outs that you want to call that pot sized bet? 33%? I really can't see how it's a call with 33% and fold with 30%, when we will have implied odds at least for that 3% in this specific situation.