Overpair calling short stack All In on Flop

Against a small stack in such a situation is it wise to make a call with an overpair?

He's not a small stack but a medium stack with ~40BB.

I didn't quite get his stats. Is 1.4 AF? Then 10.0 is 3bet?

If that's the case I'd play nit and fold. I'd expect him to 3bet pre with JJ/QQ. He's lower AF might point us to the fact that he'd prefer to call with draws than to shove flop with them. Then again, it's a small sample, but even he's preflop stats (gap between PFR and VPIP) points to the fact that he's rather a bad/passive and not aggressive at all.

Equity-wise, I know we play against ranges but I like to think on "best case scenarios" as well. I think our "best case scenario" here is he has a hand like K :club:Q or A :club:Q :club:. We only have 60/40 against those hands.

Worse case scenario, against TT we have 8%.

Am I putting him on the right range?

You might. He's preflop range seems pretty wide so he might find himself on the flop with all that crap. However, I don't think we can assume he's shoving all that.

If we put him only on very strong draws and sets, we're crushed:

Board: T♦8♣2♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    15.89%  15.89%   0.00% { AdAs }
MP3    84.11%  84.11%   0.00% { TT, 88, 22, QcJc, Jc9c }

So ee have to put him on A :club:x to make it slightly profitable. If he is shoving J9o we have a profitable call, and we get even more equity if he is shoving T8.

Against an unknown I think I'd call; against this guy it gets tougher and depends on our reads. Based on these stats only I'm leaning towards a fold.

Bottom line is: If my calculations are correct, we need 1:2.7 odds to call - or 27%. In most cases we will probably be better than that and could indeed call profitably or at least b/e. Against the more passive guys that would call there with almost whole range and would just raise the nuts we should find a fold.

ps: and why don't you have 100bb yourself?

I didn't quite get his stats. Is 1.4 AF? Then 10.0 is 3bet?

Yup those are his stats. He 3-Bets 10% and his AF is indeed 1.4. I guess his shove should be taken seriously and I guess you're right that he wouldn't be shoving all of what I put him on.

Against the more passive guys that would call there with almost whole range and would just raise the nuts we should find a fold.

I guess I should have realized that he'd only be raising the nuts by what his passive stats say.

ps: and why don't you have 100bb yourself?

I'd lost 8 blinds in the hand before this and the re-buyin was gonna complete right after this hand.

[...]

Cool

I wouldn't be too prone to rely on stats only, especially on that short a sample. It's really important to observe the players - in this case, it would be pretty good to know if he was raising cbets often or not and, if so, with what hands etc.

'cause even the 3bet... I'm assuming he'd 3bet JJ pre, but that can be wrong... you have 10% 3bet on him but it's probably 1/10 opportunities (in that case he might have had a monster ofc).

Hello maheepsangari,

Snap-Call for me, don't be result oriented! He has a lot of draws and Tx hands in his calling range preflop. His gap between VPIP/PFR tells us the whole story about him definitely having Tx hands. I would even bet the flop bigger and then Call off.

Best Regards.