The hot 55$ - 88

The problem with these types of spots is largely due to the fact that we have to get into the head of the villian here. What types of hands would he play in such a way? I think KK would probably 3bet so TT would be possible. J9s seems reasonable but I would assume J9o to be out of his range. He could call you on the flop with AJ and spiked the straight the on the turn. I think we are likely beat here.

calling 1300 to win 2300 so basically have to be right 36% of the time to break even. So I think the fold on the river is correct. I simply don't see him doing this with slightly worse for value and he shouldn't be bluffing this often on the river. Maybe QJ turns into a bluff but I don't see much else that would be turned into a bluff here.

Tough Fold but I think it is the right one.

Originally posted by AaronLambert
The problem with these types of spots is largely due to the fact that we have to get into the head of the villian here. What types of hands would he play in such a way? I think KK would probably 3bet so TT would be possible. J9s seems reasonable but I would assume J9o to be out of his range. He could call you on the flop with AJ and spiked the straight the on the turn. I think we are likely beat here.

calling 1300 to win 2300 so basically have to be right 36% of the time to break even. So I think the fold on the river is correct. I simply don't see him doing this with slightly worse for value and he shouldn't be bluffing this often on the river. Maybe QJ turns into a bluff but I don't see much else that would be turned into a bluff here.

Tough Fold but I think it is the right one.

what about KT/KQ/QT

He might raise on turn hands like KT/KQ/QT most of the time.
And if he have it on the river, maybe he will just call them.

Call. U left with 30bb. Your hand strength is good for the price of the call.

Hi all,

I don't think we're good here the required 36% of the time, even without factoring in hero's edge in the tournament = tournament life considerations etc.

Folding seems best.

if we asume that villain calls behind AJ/TT is more likely that hew also calls KQ/KT/QT
Board: Kh Qs Tc 8s 3c
Dead:

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 46.159 % 46.159 % 0.000 % 53.841 % 88
Player 2: 53.841 % 53.841 % 0.000 % 46.159 % TT, AJs, KTs+, QTs, J9s, AJo, KQo, KTo, QTo, J9o

on river if we give villain above range(not to mention that there r retarded plays/spews like AK/QJ and stuf) hero has a call with

Pairs
KK, KK, KK
QQ, QQ, QQ
TT, TT, TT
88, 88, 88
33, 33, 33

Suited
AJs
J9s

Offsuit
AJo
J9o

For us not to be good the required 36% he has to never be bluffing here and only have AJ. That is a definant possibility.
Would villian be calling here with sets 2 pair j/9 and JJ 100%
If think he is capable of shoving QJ or JJ or ever would ship is his 2pair here u have a call.
Once again u arent out of tournament after this you will still have a stack u can play with. So yeh call here is totally villian dependant.

Best way to do this:

16 combinations of AJ, 4 combinations of J9s, 3 combos of TT. This adds up to 23 combinations of hands that beat us.

We need to be good 38% of the time here, so we need to find 23/(1-0.38) - 23 combinations of hands that we beat = 14 combinations.

KQo = 3x3 = 9 combinations, KTs = 2 combinations. I would assume villain flats the river with worse two pairs than that, or folds pre outright. So we're at 11 combinations. Unless villain is good enough to raise QJ/JJ on the river (he's not, look at his stats!), we're only good around 32.4% of the time, so folding is best.

Originally posted by chenny8888
Best way to do this:

16 combinations of AJ, 4 combinations of J9s, 3 combos of TT. This adds up to 23 combinations of hands that beat us.

We need to be good 38% of the time here, so we need to find 23/(1-0.38) - 23 combinations of hands that we beat = 14 combinations.

KQo = 3x3 = 9 combinations, KTs = 2 combinations. I would assume villain flats the river with worse two pairs than that, or folds pre outright. So we're at 11 combinations. Unless villain is good enough to raise QJ/JJ on the river (he's not, look at his stats!), we're only good around 32.4% of the time, so folding is best.

do we fold QQ/KK/TT on river?

It's quite close, he can have 88/TT/someQQ very easily and play this way (sometimes raises turn), unfortunately with KK and QQ we block KT/KQ (with TT we beat an additional 2 combos of hands vs with 88 which is already marginally enough), with KK we beat 3x 88, 3x TT and block 1x KTs and 6x KQo HOWEVER i think he slowplays QQ enough for us to get it in. It's quite close regardless. I think TT is a bet/get it in, the rest are bet/folds as disgustingly nitty as that sounds.

In-game I would not fold TT+ here.

Originally posted by chenny8888
It's quite close, he can have 88/TT/someQQ very easily and play this way (sometimes raises turn), unfortunately with KK and QQ we block KT/KQ (with TT we beat an additional 2 combos of hands vs with 88 which is already marginally enough), with KK we beat 3x 88, 3x TT and block 1x KTs and 6x KQo HOWEVER i think he slowplays QQ enough for us to get it in. It's quite close regardless. I think TT is a bet/get it in, the rest are bet/folds as disgustingly nitty as that sounds.

In-game I would not fold TT+ here.

for reason said above i prefer calling with 88 more vs KK/QQ/TT

TT doesn't block much, but 88 seems better than KK and QQ. All 3 of the latter hands seem like folds, but I would not be folding QQ or KK in game (not meaning calling it off is the best ;)! ).