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The Big Double 65$ K6s FD vs Maniac Sick bubble question.

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skatelouis
Joined: 26.05.2008

No Limit Holdem Tournament
FullTiltPoker
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
$20,000 Rush Guar (Rebuy)

Stacks:
CO gomdol99 (808k) 101bb
BTN AdrianoElBrudo (362k) 45bb
SB peBu3op (656k) 82bb
BB Hero (286k) 36bb

Blinds: 4k/8k Ante 1k

Pre-Flop: (16k, 4 players) Hero is BB 6♦ K♦
1 fold, AdrianoElBrudo raises to 16k, peBu3op calls 12k, Hero calls 8k

Flop: 9♦ 4♦ Q♥ (52k, 3 players)
peBu3op checks, Hero checks, AdrianoElBrudo bets 24k, peBu3op raises to 64k, Hero calls 64k, AdrianoElBrudo folds

Turn: 6♣ (204k, 2 players)
peBu3op goes all-in 575k, Hero goes all-in 205k

How this tournament works, its on Full tilt poker. If you finish the 2 tournaments at the final table you get a % of the prize pool. About 23% for two FT. 97% if you win the two tournaments.
This hand is coming from my friend, I was arguing with him first by saying that he should just have fold the flop because of the bubble equity that was enormous.
10 players left, 60 players to begin with so a prize pool of 3600$
9 players at the final table.
If my friend fold flop and get to the final table he is getting 23% of the JACKPOT pool, that is 1062$.

I was wondering how much equity do you need to play flop and turn against a maniac that could have straight draws, 87, fd, TP, DP, maybe set when there is such a big bubble.

Was he right to play that way or should he fold? Getting first would have been hard because he was under the average for the MTT.


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5 replies

Hi,

If you want to avoid that situation, then better just to fold pre-flop. There is no info if there are any shortstack that would likely get stacked- if not then hero is no guarantee that he would get to the FT.

Postflop I would either fold or shove on the flop.

Against Qx and JT you´re slightly behind, so folding flop is fine:
board: 9d4dQh
Hand Equity Wins Ties
Kd6d 43.91% 65,606 81
Qx, JT 56.09% 83,803 81

Hitting 6 would not make your situation that much better:
board: 9d4dQh6s
Hand Equity Wins Ties
Kd6d 34.35% 2,237 0
Q*, JT 65.65% 4,275 0

So likely you should fold that spot unless SB is shoving very-very wide

best regards,


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thesundancekid
Joined: 09.05.2011

Hi

I would have called to see if hit flush on turn , then DEFFO fold if missed.

pot is massive if u call and hit turn your in gr8 shape of you miss your still ok

but there no way id call the turn jams ..


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skatelouis
Joined: 26.05.2008

Why not calling the turn jam, I evaluated earlier that we have at least 33% equity against that guy. Isn't that how much we need to make the call?


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Against Qx you get 30%
board: 9d4dQh6c
Hand Equity Wins Ties
Kd6d 30.49% 161 0
QT 69.51% 367 0

Don´t think you called flop to hit 6, so I also think fold is better.


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chenny8888
Joined: 03.10.2007

Upon reflection it looks like a flop fold with such a huge bubblefactor. I think we're very risk averse here if we get 23% of the prize pool for making it to the final table, and 0% of the prize pool for "bubbling". Turn's a clear fold.


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