FT hot 44$ call or fold

4.5bb = no brainer , your way ahead of his range & good chance to get back into the tourney , chances are its 60/40 but still good odds

nothing against money laddering but being so short you going to have to shove in few hands anyway with no fold equity

I have calculated the hand in holder resources calculator.
ICM gives you 19.5% risk premium. So according to chip EV, you need 38.5%, but according to ICM you need 58%.
If CO and the blinds are good players, CO would push quite wide in this spot. So AJs is call. But if CO is tight fish you can fold.

Originally posted by TheRebuz
PokerStars - $40+$4|10000/20000 Ante 2500 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

LP: 207,318.00
CO: 210,833.00
Hero (BTN): 90,869.00
SB: 292,730.00
BB: 244,596.00
UTG: 1,742,127.00
UTG+1: 276,002.00
MP: 20,886.00
MP+1: 286,639.00

LP posts ante 2,500.00, CO posts ante 2,500.00, Hero posts ante 2,500.00, SB posts ante 2,500.00, BB posts ante 2,500.00, UTG posts ante 2,500.00, UTG+1 posts ante 2,500.00, MP posts ante 2,500.00, MP+1 posts ante 2,500.00, SB posts SB 10,000.00, BB posts BB 20,000.00

Pre Flop: (52500.00) Hero has A♣ J♣

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 208,333.00 and is all-in, Hero ???

FT of hot 44$
7k for first
500$ for #9
900$ for #8
Q: Do we call or fold here????? see MP stack => he has less then BB after posting ante, considering ICM etc??

what range should we be calling here?

follow up question:

considering situation MP stack and ICM => what range do u put CO on???

Hm, those numbers seem off to me. I need to run the numbers myself, but I feel something went wrong with your calculations Papi because that's a huge risk premium.

If those risk premiums are correct, this is a fold because ~10% of the time we get overcalled and are against a range of JJ+ AK by the blinds. Wider (like 99+ AQ+) if they're idiots.

Say your results.
According to ICM we need 58% to call in this spot(it consider the players after us, so the risk premium is 1/2% lower). But we need 58%.
I think a good reg can push: 22+,A2s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,A5o+,KTo+,QJo
We have 58.3% vs this range.
But it depends auch, how he sees the blinds.

I would never fold that spot. Players would call these spots a lot lighter, than AJs and you´re generally ahead his shoving range- I doubt there would be too better situations to double up and I would rather play 7k than win extra 400$

Originally posted by Kaitz20
I would never fold that spot. Players would call these spots a lot lighter, than AJs and you´re generally ahead his shoving range- I doubt there would be too better situations to double up and I would rather play 7k than win extra 400$

i know that we r generally ahead villains range but i think considering ICM this should be fold

so i'm asking
a) is this call considering ICM, what EV we need to break even vs villain range and
b) what range we put villain on in this spot

p.s. money value is relative here, for some one 400$ is like 40k for some one is like 4$, just convert it in buy ins (we get 11 more buy ins if we fold and wait short to bust)

Are fkn kidding me ?????????/

tell me this is a joke??

SNAP CALL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

Hi all,

I'm just having a look now at the risk premiums. I don't have ICM Explorer (donk move by me :() so I've simulated the Nash results interpolating for the payouts. Looks like we need something like 65.987% against his range to call! Of course, this also takes into account overcall ranges, etc.

Risk premium/ICM tax here is indeed extremely high. I think AJs is still a call against most though. AJo is a fold though IMO.

According this Nash results, we call with 88 vs this range: 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J5s+,T6s+,97s+,86s+,76s,A2o+,K8o+,Q8o+,J9o+,T8o+
88 have 59.4% equity vs this range.

thesundancekid , guy stop with your ugly posts. We can`t say this is snap call, before we consider the details. ICM is a big part of MTT final tables and we can`t ignore it, if we want to make good decisions.
Vs some players AJs is snap fold

Ofc AJs is a snap fold !!

i fold aj aq to all ins ( depending on who is pushing)

in his case AJ is a 100% SNAP call , looking at his stack size..........

well pre ft i'm calling with as wide as k8s here. are you saying you call even A8s in this spot?

In that spot i would call with any PP,q10+, k9s+ , a10+, 67s+

Good range
You are going to loose a lot of money doing this.

IMO
i post this spot cos is interesting

the thing is that this is SNAP FOLD ICM spot AINEC (math wise imo)

BUT

if short 2x or 3x we r in no mans land and we can bust before him
so imo is ok to take gamble here cos if we win with stack that we r going to have we will have decent shot to top 3 places

and the risk reward ratio of the times we win and get top3 compensate the times we bust before shorty/or bust right after shorty bust cos we will be too short to do anything

Originally posted by TheRebuz
IMO
i post this spot cos is interesting

the thing is that this is SNAP FOLD ICM spot AINEC (math wise imo)

BUT

if short 2x or 3x we r in no mans land and we can bust before him
so imo is ok to take gamble here cos if we win with stack that we r going to have we will have decent shot to top 3 places

and the risk reward ratio of the times we win and get top3 compensate the times we bust before shorty/or bust right after shorty bust cos we will be too short to do anything

It's a call maths wise, but it's quite a close spot. Consider also that we need to take 0$EV spots as our position isn't too favourable.

thesundancekid: we can use maths to help us decide on the best decision. Here maths is really much against your range, you need to play tighter when bubblefactors are significant.

Originally posted by chenny8888

Originally posted by TheRebuz
IMO
i post this spot cos is interesting

the thing is that this is SNAP FOLD ICM spot AINEC (math wise imo)

BUT

if short 2x or 3x we r in no mans land and we can bust before him
so imo is ok to take gamble here cos if we win with stack that we r going to have we will have decent shot to top 3 places

and the risk reward ratio of the times we win and get top3 compensate the times we bust before shorty/or bust right after shorty bust cos we will be too short to do anything

It's a call maths wise, but it's quite a close spot. Consider also that we need to take 0$EV spots as our position isn't too favourable.

thesundancekid: we can use maths to help us decide on the best decision. Here maths is really much against your range, you need to play tighter when bubblefactors are significant.

vs what range is a call? i think best is break even call...

Nash

Vs 43%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K8o+ Q2s+ Q8o+ J5s+ J9o+ T6s+ T8o+ 97s+ 86s+ 76s

We can call ATs as well as AJo.

AJs is pretty good here, I'd say if villain is as tight as ~35% we can call here.

i dont think that villain is pushing nash here
imo he is even tighter then this : 22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo (and theis si like ~25%)