NL200 AA, overpair facing riverdonkb when 4card straight hits

He never has QJ, cos QJ would fold turn, and QdJd probably raises Flop or Turn IMO, so that mostly leaves him with 7X.

Your 4bet size isn't exactly small, but he's deep. I don't expect him to defend wider than suited one gappers. So that leaves him with 67s/78s/77/79s/Ad7d.

67s (2 combos)
78s (3 combos)
79s (3 combos)
Ad7d (1 combo)
77 (6 combos)

I would imagine that with this SPR of 3.5, he would c/r a good portion of his nut flush draws. Don't really see him c/c 2 streets OOP with too many KdQd type of hands and then donking the River. But it's pretty close. It would definitely be a fold if we had the Ace diamond.

I think it's a fold. He's probably rofling about with 99, stupid micro anon regs.

edit: Wow that was probably the worst analysis of 2013? I guess I'll add it's hard for him to be bluffing here, unless he's good enough to turn like QQ into a bluff here, which i very severely doubt. Or like Axdd/Kxdd I guess, not super likely tho again

Ended up folding too, but hated it.

imfromsweden: Do you really think he would 3bet 99 or other medium/smaller pps with these stacksizes? Or where else is my thinking flawed in the analysis?

This is one those spots where u never know against unknown. I think it's almost impossible to say what's the best play here, I think it's very close and we could flip a coin to decide. Most likely it's a fold anywhere below nl200 and call above, so nl200 could be a breaking point, so it doesn't matter what u do, especially @anon tables ♠_biggrin:

I'd call against some unknown regish guy, we get such a good price, but I don't understand why u put him only on 7x ? I think many 9xs 2pairs are in his range and maybe 99.

Yeah, very tough spot against a rather unknown player indeed.

And you are right, of course he has all of those 9xs in his range. Dunno why I didn't take that into account..

Would you like villains play though if he had a hand like 98s, T9s in this spot?

Generally, regs on this site, on these tables are awful and would never do this as a thin valuebet. I.E 2 pair-set.

So he only has straights, I wouldn't worry about him rolfing with like 109s.

People turn way too much into bluffs these days, especially in these spots.

If we include the J10, Q10, K10, A10, Broadway fds then its probably going to be a call, especially as a bunch of his straight combos fold on the turn. I also think he plays these combos a lot more than he does 67/78 pre.

But yeah, roll your eyes, think about how hard it is for him to have a straight and then toss a coin

Pretty much what getdotacom and pleno1 said. You can never know vs unknown if he will do this with 2 pair or only 7x and weather he does that with busted FDs or Txs or J9.

Either way its not a spot that really matters all that much since this kind of situation comes up once every 500k hands so it really doesn't have that much of an effect on your winrate anyway. Your better off focusing on spots that come up once every 100 hands